NBA MON 032309 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
- Mar 18, 2009
- 375
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Orlando/New York -
This along w/ the Portland game stood out as a side play. Last game was touch and go and any lead the Magic enjoyed was illusory. Rafer Alston and Nate Robinson got into a minor fray - Alston always has been volatile, but he's also a NYC (Queensbridge Projects, stand up) point guard who secured his Skip-to-My-Lou moniker after breaking ankles on one move at Rucker Park in Harlem; as an aside, Artest is also from the same public housing complex - strange coincidence that both players are unpredictable personalities - he may have wanted to punk his hometown team badly and happened to run into a player w/ a similar bulldog personality in Robinson. Just a possibility, but NBA players surely can't be above pettiness?
Can't see this contest being closely fought - back and forth - tool and nail - throw out whatever other cliches you have - the Magic KNOW that next year's roster of the Knicks will be SIGNIFCANTLY different if Walsh and D'Antoni continue their enterprise in the vision they see fit: read MAJOR OVERHAUL. So most of these players will be on other teams - NO LONG TERM COLLECTIVE MEMORY to carry over past this season and into next. As I've alluded to in a previous thread, the Magic have NOT endeared themselves to opposing teams by running up the score and continually shooting 3s long after the game's been decided in their favor (Nuggets in Denver); see Hawks, Pacers, Heat for examples of blowouts.
So... The Magic can blow out a team - their 3s aren't always gonna be $, but they are overall a good perimeter squad that will hit more often than miss during the regular season: Lewis, Terkoglu, Pietrus, Redick, and even Lee - Alston and Johnson tagging along. They won't be seeing the Knicks again this season and definitely won't be seeing this crop of Knicks next and aren't above running a team into the ground a la Barry Switzer (@ Oklahoma) and Jimmy Johnson (@ Miami - Hurricanes that is) even if the white flag has been waved explicitly. Knicks are fatigued and have seen the writing on the wall - David Lee's tendinitis is further confirmation of the wear and tear that D'Antoni's system has on players, especially on a short roster such as the one New York has employed all season (see Duhon in previous notes).
When I looked at the games and started working numbers and sides mentally, this 'felt' like a blowout brewing. Again, it's a guess, but I'll run w/ it...
Side: Orlando -5/-5.5/-6 - gone in on a half unit last night; will buy up to a full unit by gametime if not sooner.
Total: No great sense about what how the figures will tally by the close so NO PLAY.
Am confident about Portland winning, but not sure about the margin - and thanks to Ax's closer exploration, the bell distribution is going to heavily skewed b/c of the aberrant 42 point beatdown of the Bulls. Would play the ML, but juice is too high for any significant consideration.
Some short notes -
Clippers - Celtics; anticipate a Celtics victory - 15.5 line is too rich given the potential for a backdoor cover and that's a very real possibility (again, reference Pacers after Celtics return home, see also Grizzlies).
Grizzlies - Heat: tossup for me personally so no comment.
Nuggets - Suns; have a suspicion that the Nuggets win here... No more than that 'cause I don't have anything tangible to back it up.
Best of luck to all on your plays; catch up w/ you later this afternoon/tonight.
This along w/ the Portland game stood out as a side play. Last game was touch and go and any lead the Magic enjoyed was illusory. Rafer Alston and Nate Robinson got into a minor fray - Alston always has been volatile, but he's also a NYC (Queensbridge Projects, stand up) point guard who secured his Skip-to-My-Lou moniker after breaking ankles on one move at Rucker Park in Harlem; as an aside, Artest is also from the same public housing complex - strange coincidence that both players are unpredictable personalities - he may have wanted to punk his hometown team badly and happened to run into a player w/ a similar bulldog personality in Robinson. Just a possibility, but NBA players surely can't be above pettiness?
Can't see this contest being closely fought - back and forth - tool and nail - throw out whatever other cliches you have - the Magic KNOW that next year's roster of the Knicks will be SIGNIFCANTLY different if Walsh and D'Antoni continue their enterprise in the vision they see fit: read MAJOR OVERHAUL. So most of these players will be on other teams - NO LONG TERM COLLECTIVE MEMORY to carry over past this season and into next. As I've alluded to in a previous thread, the Magic have NOT endeared themselves to opposing teams by running up the score and continually shooting 3s long after the game's been decided in their favor (Nuggets in Denver); see Hawks, Pacers, Heat for examples of blowouts.
So... The Magic can blow out a team - their 3s aren't always gonna be $, but they are overall a good perimeter squad that will hit more often than miss during the regular season: Lewis, Terkoglu, Pietrus, Redick, and even Lee - Alston and Johnson tagging along. They won't be seeing the Knicks again this season and definitely won't be seeing this crop of Knicks next and aren't above running a team into the ground a la Barry Switzer (@ Oklahoma) and Jimmy Johnson (@ Miami - Hurricanes that is) even if the white flag has been waved explicitly. Knicks are fatigued and have seen the writing on the wall - David Lee's tendinitis is further confirmation of the wear and tear that D'Antoni's system has on players, especially on a short roster such as the one New York has employed all season (see Duhon in previous notes).
When I looked at the games and started working numbers and sides mentally, this 'felt' like a blowout brewing. Again, it's a guess, but I'll run w/ it...
Side: Orlando -5/-5.5/-6 - gone in on a half unit last night; will buy up to a full unit by gametime if not sooner.
Total: No great sense about what how the figures will tally by the close so NO PLAY.
Am confident about Portland winning, but not sure about the margin - and thanks to Ax's closer exploration, the bell distribution is going to heavily skewed b/c of the aberrant 42 point beatdown of the Bulls. Would play the ML, but juice is too high for any significant consideration.
Some short notes -
Clippers - Celtics; anticipate a Celtics victory - 15.5 line is too rich given the potential for a backdoor cover and that's a very real possibility (again, reference Pacers after Celtics return home, see also Grizzlies).
Grizzlies - Heat: tossup for me personally so no comment.
Nuggets - Suns; have a suspicion that the Nuggets win here... No more than that 'cause I don't have anything tangible to back it up.
Best of luck to all on your plays; catch up w/ you later this afternoon/tonight.
Hell, I would strongly advise you, don't tail me! Regression is the word...just looking to hold on for a few more weeks and then I can breathe a sigh of relief that the law of averages didn't KILL me.
Actually, I like the way my card looks. Just two plays but you know that's already above average for me.
and as ETZ pointed out, WAS may not care about stopping them from scoring...I'm on the under here.
On another side note, if I can get Den at +4.5 it puts it into the 7-1 Underdog variance category, so Suns backers start betting it up plz, ty :director:
LOVE it!!! Seeing a lot of that around. This may be the bone they're throwing us to start the week LOL
For me, PHO is on my list of teams I shouldn't ever consider capping. I still do though. Looking for some gem and never finding it. The team is on a 10s shot clock.
LOL! yea, after seeing each team scoring 6pts in 9 sec bursts. and the 70pts 1st quarter. I threw up the white flag.
Orlando/New York -
This along w/ the Portland game stood out as a side play. Last game was touch and go and any lead the Magic enjoyed was illusory. Rafer Alston and Nate Robinson got into a minor fray - Alston always has been volatile, but he's also a NYC (Queensbridge Projects, stand up) point guard who secured his Skip-to-My-Lou moniker after breaking ankles on one move at Rucker Park in Harlem; as an aside, Artest is also from the same public housing complex - strange coincidence that both players are unpredictable personalities - he may have wanted to punk his hometown team badly and happened to run into a player w/ a similar bulldog personality in Robinson. Just a possibility, but NBA players surely can't be above pettiness?
Can't see this contest being closely fought - back and forth - tool and nail - throw out whatever other cliches you have - the Magic KNOW that next year's roster of the Knicks will be SIGNIFCANTLY different if Walsh and D'Antoni continue their enterprise in the vision they see fit: read MAJOR OVERHAUL. So most of these players will be on other teams - NO LONG TERM COLLECTIVE MEMORY to carry over past this season and into next. As I've alluded to in a previous thread, the Magic have NOT endeared themselves to opposing teams by running up the score and continually shooting 3s long after the game's been decided in their favor (Nuggets in Denver); see Hawks, Pacers, Heat for examples of blowouts.
So... The Magic can blow out a team - their 3s aren't always gonna be $, but they are overall a good perimeter squad that will hit more often than miss during the regular season: Lewis, Terkoglu, Pietrus, Redick, and even Lee - Alston and Johnson tagging along. They won't be seeing the Knicks again this season and definitely won't be seeing this crop of Knicks next and aren't above running a team into the ground a la Barry Switzer (@ Oklahoma) and Jimmy Johnson (@ Miami - Hurricanes that is) even if the white flag has been waved explicitly. Knicks are fatigued and have seen the writing on the wall - David Lee's tendinitis is further confirmation of the wear and tear that D'Antoni's system has on players, especially on a short roster such as the one New York has employed all season (see Duhon in previous notes).
When I looked at the games and started working numbers and sides mentally, this 'felt' like a blowout brewing. Again, it's a guess, but I'll run w/ it...
Side: Orlando -5/-5.5/-6 - gone in on a half unit last night; will buy up to a full unit by gametime if not sooner.
Total: No great sense about what how the figures will tally by the close so NO PLAY.
Am confident about Portland winning, but not sure about the margin - and thanks to Ax's closer exploration, the bell distribution is going to heavily skewed b/c of the aberrant 42 point beatdown of the Bulls. Would play the ML, but juice is too high for any significant consideration.
Some short notes -
Clippers - Celtics; anticipate a Celtics victory - 15.5 line is too rich given the potential for a backdoor cover and that's a very real possibility (again, reference Pacers after Celtics return home, see also Grizzlies).
Grizzlies - Heat: tossup for me personally so no comment.
Nuggets - Suns; have a suspicion that the Nuggets win here... No more than that 'cause I don't have anything tangible to back it up.
Best of luck to all on your plays; catch up w/ you later this afternoon/tonight.
ETZ...well done sir...buying that ORL side right now. Your logic is right on the money and after running some numbers, I concur. This may be the Side of the Day.
:topic: Please don't go Turc on us :joke:
love your write-ups...
joe, no disrepect intended on your pick.
I know I know! Everything's cool! Like I said I HAD to :shrug:
I got burned by pho so many times picking under when they play at home.They play a lot faster at home. Denver does slightly play better D this year with chauncy. But i don't think as a team, they can control the suns' tempo at home.
denver and Pho are two teams on my list to stay away from.
I also got burned by PHX every time I played them! But I love the Nuggs! Nuggs = MONEY
It's just a beef between PHX and me ... I MUST beat them! :director:
BOL buddy :toast:
Good Afternoon AX ... lot of action on the Minn / Atla under ... I locked in at 196 1/2 and it's now down 2 points since ... when you speak -- people listen !!!
Best NCAA game tonight is Oregon St. minus 1 over Vermont ... Michelle "snuff under her lower lip" Obama's brother is the head coach at Oregon St. so the refs will be giving them favorable calls since they are looking for stimulus money !!!
Will throw in my 2 cents on your thread everyday ... glad I found you here !!!
ChumpChange aka Chump / Covers
Best NCAA game tonight is Oregon St. minus 1 over Vermont ... Michelle "snuff under her lower lip" Obama's brother is the head coach at Oregon St. so the refs will be giving them favorable calls since they are looking for stimulus money !!!
Will throw in my 2 cents on your thread everyday ... glad I found you here !!!
ChumpChange aka Chump / Covers
People were saying to stay away from that game and if you are gonna bet, bet the over. But the 244 was too resistable. that's vegas for ya.
