Im just curious, but why hasn't the under in orl/nyk been discussed more. Wasn't this a play just 2 days ago? I'm curious as to what has changed between these two that its not a possibility.
NBA MON 032309 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
- Mar 18, 2009
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Hilarious, it's the "Dark Side"
chi/was = 210 currently 209.5
45%
55%
lac/bos = opened 199 currently 200.5
42%
58%
minn/atl = opened 196.5 currently 194.5
22%
78%
orl/ny = opened 213.5 currently 217
67%
23%
phi/port = 190.5
55%
45%
den/phx = 237
57%
43%
Last edited:
I posted last night that I saw value on Phil/PortU. Here are some trends I found. Like Port as well.
Portland is riding ATS streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-0 as a chalk, 9-3 when playing on one day of rest and 6-0 on Monday. Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when catching between five and 10? points, but otherwise the 76ers are in ATS droughts of 6-12 overall, 2-5 as a pup, 2-4 on the road, 1-6 on Monday, 2-7 against the Western Conference and 0-5 when playing on back-to-back nights.
For Philadelphia, the under is on runs of 8-4-1 against the Western Conference, 6-2 when facing teams with a winning record, 5-1-1 as a road pup and 23-7-2 on Monday, but the Sixers have now topped the total in each of their last three games on their road trip and five of their last seven overall. Meanwhile, the Blazers are on ?over? stretches of 5-2-1 at home, 5-2 against the Atlantic Division and 4-0 when playing on Monday.
Finally, six of the last seven meetings between these teams have stayed low, including the last three in a row.
Portland is riding ATS streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-0 as a chalk, 9-3 when playing on one day of rest and 6-0 on Monday. Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when catching between five and 10? points, but otherwise the 76ers are in ATS droughts of 6-12 overall, 2-5 as a pup, 2-4 on the road, 1-6 on Monday, 2-7 against the Western Conference and 0-5 when playing on back-to-back nights.
For Philadelphia, the under is on runs of 8-4-1 against the Western Conference, 6-2 when facing teams with a winning record, 5-1-1 as a road pup and 23-7-2 on Monday, but the Sixers have now topped the total in each of their last three games on their road trip and five of their last seven overall. Meanwhile, the Blazers are on ?over? stretches of 5-2-1 at home, 5-2 against the Atlantic Division and 4-0 when playing on Monday.
Finally, six of the last seven meetings between these teams have stayed low, including the last three in a row.
All,
I know that this is an NBA thread but thought I would contribute on the NCAA side a bit as well if that is permitted. I am liking Stanford +1.5 in this spot tonight...
Any thoughts? I will post some of my own here in just a second.
~Milton
I know that this is an NBA thread but thought I would contribute on the NCAA side a bit as well if that is permitted. I am liking Stanford +1.5 in this spot tonight...
Any thoughts? I will post some of my own here in just a second.
~Milton
- Mar 18, 2009
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What? that's absurd, I do have it at 190.5.
:mj07: J/k
I fixed it, thank you for the heads up.
wouldn't it be something if Phi/port was 237?
Hey guys
Hey guys
Guys,
I am very new to this whole sports betting thing. I have enjoyed messing around with it in the past, but am looking to get better and learn as much as I can. Thanks for all the posts. I am soaking up everything and hopefully I will be able to contribute in the future.
Hey guys
Guys,
I am very new to this whole sports betting thing. I have enjoyed messing around with it in the past, but am looking to get better and learn as much as I can. Thanks for all the posts. I am soaking up everything and hopefully I will be able to contribute in the future.
The public is pounding the shit out of this over, and you raise a good point. Of course the game they had in NY was higher scoring than the one @ home in Orlando, but this number is starting to approach a level where an Under play might come in for me at least.
- Mar 18, 2009
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Memo to Mark Jackson: you were an excellent collegian (although Walter Berry became a star @ St. John's while you were there, he really never was able to translate that into the NBA, enjoying success overseas in Greece - how did you both + Chris Mullins NOT win a championship?), a solid pro, BUT not terribly enjoyable commentator to these ears. I'm hoping that some owner somewhere will gift you a head coaching position (despite you not possessing great coaching credentials) so that I may be spared your 'Mama, THERE goes THAT man' phrase time and time again. It may also imbue you w/ some humility after not being able to get your point(s) across to professional players who would rather tweet and think about their postgame meal than listen to you rant. It also presents a dilemma for ESPN/ABC as to who would replace you as straight man to Jeff Van Gundy's Rasputin-like on-air personality although the potential for that could be truly comical.
Thanks for the time and attention.
Thanks for the time and attention.
- Mar 22, 2009
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hi guys, its nice to see everybody giving their 2 cents, instead of bashing each other , i will try to help and give me feedback but im still learning,.....
Den/Pho line dropped to 236.5......what u guys think ???
i was also looking at that stanford game.....
Den/Pho line dropped to 236.5......what u guys think ???
i was also looking at that stanford game.....
No love for ORL-NY under ?
No love for ORL-NY under ?
Last two games which these two teams met all with the total of 213! Last 6 NY games went under. The line was set at 213.5 and now 217. Will history repeat itself here in NY?
I think the game will go under. What do you guys think?
BTW, we have a good thread here. Thanks.
No love for ORL-NY under ?
Last two games which these two teams met all with the total of 213! Last 6 NY games went under. The line was set at 213.5 and now 217. Will history repeat itself here in NY?
I think the game will go under. What do you guys think?
BTW, we have a good thread here. Thanks.
- Mar 18, 2009
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If script plays out and it indeed is a blowout, it'll really depend methinks on how much the Knicks score when the game's on life support at that point... As I wrote, no great sense on how the numbers will add up at the end, so watching and observing on that aspect.
BOL to anyone who plays either way tho'...
Stanford +1.5
The Stanford Cardinal are a very young team that have a lot of learning and growing up to do but having said that they are still pretty damn talented and I think they can do some damage in this post-season tournament. They already kicked serious Boise State ass in their first round game against the Broncos and I really don't see them letting up in the quarter-finals of this tournament against a very good home team that is however beatable. The Cardinal come into this game averaging a whopping 78.4 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to do that by shooting 46.2% from the floor in those games, which means they are playing their best basketball of the season for sure. Wichita State has been very good defensively in recent games and it's not easy to score against these guys as they have allowed only 64.8 points per game in their last five games and have allowed those opponents to shoot only 41.0% from the floor. Having said that, their level of opponents was not all that tough during that stretch and I think they might struggled against a team from the PAC 10 Conference. The Cardinal are on fire from three point range in recent games making 36.0% of their three point shot attempts and making 8.2 three point shots per game. Wichita State has defended the perimeter well in their last five games and I think Stanford will have more success going inside and getting to the line in this game as they shoot 77.2% from the free throw line in their last five games and the Shockers have a weak interior defense as their last five opponents have been to the free throw line 24.2 times per game in their last five games and Stanford can really take advantage of that inside edge. Stanford is not a big team but they are tough up front as they have brought down 9.8 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games and that should be worth a few extra buckets tonight. Wichita State has not allowed opponents in recent games to get many second chances around their own basket which is why it's good to have a team that can shoot the ball well from the floor and not have to worry about getting those extra chances. I have been impressed with Stanford's guard play in recent games, some guys are really stepping it up and they average a whopping 16.8 assists per game in those games (the NCAA average is 12.8 assists per game in the last five games). The only way to stop Stanford right now is to force turnovers and Wichita State has not done that in recent games forcing only 12.4 turnovers per game in their last five games on only 5.2 steals per game which is going to be a problem in this game. I think the Stanford guards are going to have their way in terms of ball movement which should create open looks from the perimeter and Stanford has been red hot with their outside shooting meaning they are confident and ready to come in here and trade some jabs with the home team. The Shockers are a good defensive team but they don't match up well with Stanford's offense and it's going to show tonight.
The Wichita State Shockers come into this game as favorites and from what I have read they really think they can win this game. I know it's a long way to come for a PAC 10 Conference team and that might bother Stanford a bit but the start time is decent and the Cardinal should be used to this by now. The Shockers beat Buffalo at home in their opening round game of this tournament and that was pretty impressive but Stanford is a whole different story and I don't like how they match up against the Cardinal. Wichita State comes into this game averaging only 63.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 43.8% shooting from the floor which is not good enough in my books to ball with Stanford. The Cardinal have allowed 69.1 points per game this season and have allowed their opponents to shoot 47.8% from the floor but having said that most of their opponents have been high scoring PAC 10 Conference opponents and it's understandable. The only way to really beat Stanford is to have a high scoring, high powered offense and Wichita State doesn't come close to that. The Shockers are not a good perimeter team as they have made only 32.8% of their three point shots this season and average only 5.6 three pointers made per game on the year. Stanford doesn't allow many shots from the perimeter as their defense is more interior focused and their opponents have managed to attempt only 13.6 three point shots per game (NCAA average is 18.3) this season. It's not like Wichita State is much better on the inside where they have been to the free throw line only 17.1 times per game this season and have managed to make only 69.6% of their free throws in those games. Well Stanford has been very good with their interior defense allowing their opponents to get to the line only 17.8 times per game this season and if they can defend both the inside and the outside in this game, Wichita State is going to have a hard time cracking the 60 point mark. Much like Stanford, the Shockers don't do much on the boards and average only 30.6 rebounds per game and 9.7 offensive rebounds per game this season (both below the NCAA average). Stanford has been good around their own basket allowing only 30.1 rebounds per game this season and allowing only 8.6 offensive rebounds in those games so I think they are going to have an easy time containing the Shockers under the basket. The problem with Wichita State and how they will perform tonight is that they are too careless with the ball, their guards lack experience and skill to move the ball effectively as they have turned it over 14.1 times per game this season and now have to face a very aggressive Stanford defense that has allowed only 12.8 assists against per game this season and that has forced a whopping 15.2 turnovers per game on 6.9 steals per game. The Shockers are going to have all sorts of problems holding onto the ball in this game and in the end those turnovers and their lack of ball control is going to cost them. The Stanford defense is not that good but they match up very well with this very slow tempo Wichita State offense and I think the Cardinal are going to completely shut these guys down and give their offense plenty of chances to pull away in this game.
This is quite the unusual matchup but that's what tournaments like this tend to do and it will be interesting to see how these two teams match up. I know most of the public is on Stanford and why not seeing how they are finally coming around and looking like a much more mature team in recent games. This is the first time these two teams meet and just to let you know the last time Stanford lost was in their conference tournament to a team (Washington) that made the NCAA Tournament. Wichita State on the other hand lost in their conference tournament to Creighton, a team that did not make the Big Dance. The Cardinal come into this game 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a game where they score 90+ points the game before which is a great indication that when this team is hot, they stay hot for a while. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games and have covered the spread in 14 of their last 21 games against a team with a straight up winning record (one of those was a push). Wichitat State has managed to cover the spread in only 9 of their last 30 games as a favorite (OUCH!!!) and they are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games versus a visiting team that has a losing road record on the season. That means these guys tend to underestimate bad road teams and I think they do the exact same in tonight's game and Stanford comes in here and rolls these guys.
Trend of the Game: Stanford is 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
Stanford 75, Wichita State 69
The Stanford Cardinal are a very young team that have a lot of learning and growing up to do but having said that they are still pretty damn talented and I think they can do some damage in this post-season tournament. They already kicked serious Boise State ass in their first round game against the Broncos and I really don't see them letting up in the quarter-finals of this tournament against a very good home team that is however beatable. The Cardinal come into this game averaging a whopping 78.4 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to do that by shooting 46.2% from the floor in those games, which means they are playing their best basketball of the season for sure. Wichita State has been very good defensively in recent games and it's not easy to score against these guys as they have allowed only 64.8 points per game in their last five games and have allowed those opponents to shoot only 41.0% from the floor. Having said that, their level of opponents was not all that tough during that stretch and I think they might struggled against a team from the PAC 10 Conference. The Cardinal are on fire from three point range in recent games making 36.0% of their three point shot attempts and making 8.2 three point shots per game. Wichita State has defended the perimeter well in their last five games and I think Stanford will have more success going inside and getting to the line in this game as they shoot 77.2% from the free throw line in their last five games and the Shockers have a weak interior defense as their last five opponents have been to the free throw line 24.2 times per game in their last five games and Stanford can really take advantage of that inside edge. Stanford is not a big team but they are tough up front as they have brought down 9.8 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games and that should be worth a few extra buckets tonight. Wichita State has not allowed opponents in recent games to get many second chances around their own basket which is why it's good to have a team that can shoot the ball well from the floor and not have to worry about getting those extra chances. I have been impressed with Stanford's guard play in recent games, some guys are really stepping it up and they average a whopping 16.8 assists per game in those games (the NCAA average is 12.8 assists per game in the last five games). The only way to stop Stanford right now is to force turnovers and Wichita State has not done that in recent games forcing only 12.4 turnovers per game in their last five games on only 5.2 steals per game which is going to be a problem in this game. I think the Stanford guards are going to have their way in terms of ball movement which should create open looks from the perimeter and Stanford has been red hot with their outside shooting meaning they are confident and ready to come in here and trade some jabs with the home team. The Shockers are a good defensive team but they don't match up well with Stanford's offense and it's going to show tonight.
The Wichita State Shockers come into this game as favorites and from what I have read they really think they can win this game. I know it's a long way to come for a PAC 10 Conference team and that might bother Stanford a bit but the start time is decent and the Cardinal should be used to this by now. The Shockers beat Buffalo at home in their opening round game of this tournament and that was pretty impressive but Stanford is a whole different story and I don't like how they match up against the Cardinal. Wichita State comes into this game averaging only 63.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 43.8% shooting from the floor which is not good enough in my books to ball with Stanford. The Cardinal have allowed 69.1 points per game this season and have allowed their opponents to shoot 47.8% from the floor but having said that most of their opponents have been high scoring PAC 10 Conference opponents and it's understandable. The only way to really beat Stanford is to have a high scoring, high powered offense and Wichita State doesn't come close to that. The Shockers are not a good perimeter team as they have made only 32.8% of their three point shots this season and average only 5.6 three pointers made per game on the year. Stanford doesn't allow many shots from the perimeter as their defense is more interior focused and their opponents have managed to attempt only 13.6 three point shots per game (NCAA average is 18.3) this season. It's not like Wichita State is much better on the inside where they have been to the free throw line only 17.1 times per game this season and have managed to make only 69.6% of their free throws in those games. Well Stanford has been very good with their interior defense allowing their opponents to get to the line only 17.8 times per game this season and if they can defend both the inside and the outside in this game, Wichita State is going to have a hard time cracking the 60 point mark. Much like Stanford, the Shockers don't do much on the boards and average only 30.6 rebounds per game and 9.7 offensive rebounds per game this season (both below the NCAA average). Stanford has been good around their own basket allowing only 30.1 rebounds per game this season and allowing only 8.6 offensive rebounds in those games so I think they are going to have an easy time containing the Shockers under the basket. The problem with Wichita State and how they will perform tonight is that they are too careless with the ball, their guards lack experience and skill to move the ball effectively as they have turned it over 14.1 times per game this season and now have to face a very aggressive Stanford defense that has allowed only 12.8 assists against per game this season and that has forced a whopping 15.2 turnovers per game on 6.9 steals per game. The Shockers are going to have all sorts of problems holding onto the ball in this game and in the end those turnovers and their lack of ball control is going to cost them. The Stanford defense is not that good but they match up very well with this very slow tempo Wichita State offense and I think the Cardinal are going to completely shut these guys down and give their offense plenty of chances to pull away in this game.
This is quite the unusual matchup but that's what tournaments like this tend to do and it will be interesting to see how these two teams match up. I know most of the public is on Stanford and why not seeing how they are finally coming around and looking like a much more mature team in recent games. This is the first time these two teams meet and just to let you know the last time Stanford lost was in their conference tournament to a team (Washington) that made the NCAA Tournament. Wichita State on the other hand lost in their conference tournament to Creighton, a team that did not make the Big Dance. The Cardinal come into this game 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a game where they score 90+ points the game before which is a great indication that when this team is hot, they stay hot for a while. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games and have covered the spread in 14 of their last 21 games against a team with a straight up winning record (one of those was a push). Wichitat State has managed to cover the spread in only 9 of their last 30 games as a favorite (OUCH!!!) and they are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games versus a visiting team that has a losing road record on the season. That means these guys tend to underestimate bad road teams and I think they do the exact same in tonight's game and Stanford comes in here and rolls these guys.
Trend of the Game: Stanford is 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
Stanford 75, Wichita State 69
Sorry JCW, busy with the lawyers again.
I bought that back because the trends that kept popping up wasn't so positive for my position. I weighed the ORL side vs this under play and I just thought there was more value going with ORL.
GL sir.
- Mar 18, 2009
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That's a seriously nice writeup - haven't followed college ball as ardently this year so can't comment one way or the other, but would invite you to continue to contribute as such 'cause it'll be of interest to someone who's as engaged as you are...
STANFORD
STANFORD
ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE
GAME NOTES: The CBI resumes from Koch Arena tonight, as the Stanford Cardinal lock up with the Wichita State Shockers in the quarterfinal round. The winner of this game moves on into the semifinals on Wednesday. Making its 16th straight postseason appearance, Stanford made quick work of its first opponent in this event, trouncing Boise State by a 96-76 score on Wednesday. The victory improved the Cardinal to 19-13 overall, leaving it one triumph away from reaching the 20-win plateau for the 20th time in school history. Stanford though, must get the job done on the road, where it has dropped eight of its past nine decisions. As for WSU, it took care of business in the first round of this tourney as well, posting an 84-73 victory over Buffalo on Wednesday. It was the eighth home win in a row for the Shockers, who moved over .500 in the process at 17-16 overall. Tonight's bout marks the first-ever meeting between Stanford and WSU on the hardwood.
Stanford dropped in 53.5 percent of its shots from the floor and 8-of-21 from long range, as it coasted past Boise State in the opening round on Wednesday. The Cardinal also dished out 20 assists and even benefited from 22 turnovers by the Broncos. Jeremy Green came off the bench and delivered 19 points to lead the way for Stanford. Lawrence Hill added 18 points and six boards, and Landry Fields checked in with 16 points and four helpers. Anthony Goods was limited to just nine points, but on the season he paces the team in scoring at 16.0 ppg. Hill ranks second in scoring (13.4 ppg) and rebounding (5.7 rpg), while Fields contributes 12.8 ppg and a team-high 6.6 rpg.
WSU shot a blistering 60.0 percent from the field, including 8-of-16 from downtown, as it defeated Buffalo in the opening round on Wednesday. The Shockers also did a sound job at the foul line, converting on 16-of-19 chances. Ramon Clemente and Clevin Hannah scored 14 points apiece to lead the charge, and Toure' Murry turned in 12 points and seven boards. On the season, Hannah and Murry are tied for the team-lead in scoring at 11.2 ppg, with Hannah also shooting 40.1 percent from long range and dishing out 4.4 apg. Both players are also solid defenders, as Hannah paces the team with 44 steals and Murry is next with 43 to his credit.
The Shockers have been tough on their home floor this season and the support of their fans and another good shooting night should be enough to get past Stanford in this one.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Wichita State 69, Stanford 65
03/23 10:27:52 ET
STANFORD
ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE
GAME NOTES: The CBI resumes from Koch Arena tonight, as the Stanford Cardinal lock up with the Wichita State Shockers in the quarterfinal round. The winner of this game moves on into the semifinals on Wednesday. Making its 16th straight postseason appearance, Stanford made quick work of its first opponent in this event, trouncing Boise State by a 96-76 score on Wednesday. The victory improved the Cardinal to 19-13 overall, leaving it one triumph away from reaching the 20-win plateau for the 20th time in school history. Stanford though, must get the job done on the road, where it has dropped eight of its past nine decisions. As for WSU, it took care of business in the first round of this tourney as well, posting an 84-73 victory over Buffalo on Wednesday. It was the eighth home win in a row for the Shockers, who moved over .500 in the process at 17-16 overall. Tonight's bout marks the first-ever meeting between Stanford and WSU on the hardwood.
Stanford dropped in 53.5 percent of its shots from the floor and 8-of-21 from long range, as it coasted past Boise State in the opening round on Wednesday. The Cardinal also dished out 20 assists and even benefited from 22 turnovers by the Broncos. Jeremy Green came off the bench and delivered 19 points to lead the way for Stanford. Lawrence Hill added 18 points and six boards, and Landry Fields checked in with 16 points and four helpers. Anthony Goods was limited to just nine points, but on the season he paces the team in scoring at 16.0 ppg. Hill ranks second in scoring (13.4 ppg) and rebounding (5.7 rpg), while Fields contributes 12.8 ppg and a team-high 6.6 rpg.
WSU shot a blistering 60.0 percent from the field, including 8-of-16 from downtown, as it defeated Buffalo in the opening round on Wednesday. The Shockers also did a sound job at the foul line, converting on 16-of-19 chances. Ramon Clemente and Clevin Hannah scored 14 points apiece to lead the charge, and Toure' Murry turned in 12 points and seven boards. On the season, Hannah and Murry are tied for the team-lead in scoring at 11.2 ppg, with Hannah also shooting 40.1 percent from long range and dishing out 4.4 apg. Both players are also solid defenders, as Hannah paces the team with 44 steals and Murry is next with 43 to his credit.
The Shockers have been tough on their home floor this season and the support of their fans and another good shooting night should be enough to get past Stanford in this one.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Wichita State 69, Stanford 65
03/23 10:27:52 ET
- Mar 18, 2009
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I won't be on the side. My play for that game is the Over 135.5. I think Stanford has been looking to run and I could see them putting up close to 70 shots again. I think Wichita will look to play a slower style but will eventually get caught up and the pace will be uptempo.
