NBA MON 042009 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[PickNPop]

?We?re a better defensive team? than they showed in Game 1, Rivers said. ?We?re going to win because of our defense and, if we get more stops, Ray will get more shots and he?ll get more shots in rhythm? since the Bulls will have less time to set up their defense.

Considering Game 1 would've went under if Pierce doesn't miss that FT and the assumed assertion of greater emphasis on the defensive end by the C's, isn't the under is a good play?

 

[rragga2727]

that celts game probably should have been well over w/o ot, but having said that it still was an under at the whistle and you've gotta believe the c's focus on rose. can he really score 36 a game.
on the other hand do the celtics try to ouscore the bulls w/ allen pierce & co. getting off or do they slow it down half court the bulls w/o an inside force :shrug:
i think dallas is the better team desperate or not ,but 7-1 ats revenging home loss , probably the best coach in hoops ,duncan & parker.
the only thing i see is if dampier can stay out of foul trouble parker can't drive , and barea can match parkers speed. that puts alot on duncan against the entire cast of mavericks.
still got the mavs up to 6.5 might even hit 7

 

[axp59]

While I was doing my SU research, One thing kept popping up which was the under in this situation. I don't know why I'm just not buying it. I know everyone in town are saying and thinking defense but after watching the first game, I'm not sure the C's have any say in controlling the tempo. Yes, the over got lucky in gm 1 but the FG% and 3pt% were also significantly off. If these numbers regress even slightly, there's going to be no nail biting tonight. I'm going to let this be.

 

[rragga2727]

you got 53%on the under and the total has gone from 196 to 197 with boston
you got 77%on the over and the total has dropped half a point 189-188.5 with san antonio

 

[rragga2727]

boston is 1-5u revenging a home loss, but 7o-1 in april.8-10 last bulls games have gone over 200, bulls have scored over 100 in 8-10last,bulls are 13o-4playing teams with a winning record 2nd half of season and 13-3 ats against the same..all these numbers and still

 

[axp59]

boston is 1-5u revenging a home loss, but 7o-1 in april.8-10 last bulls games have gone over 200, bulls have scored over 100 in 8-10last,bulls are 13o-4playing teams with a winning record 2nd half of season and 13-3 ats against the same..all these numbers and still

Just curious, you locked anything yet?

 

[40seven]

47

47

OK i agree with the Over in Boston.

But

What about in Texas. I am still leaning Under

anybody?

 

[rragga2727]

ax i'm waiting for you to sell me:00x31 might just sit back and enjoy

 

[rragga2727]

i hate to force anything and these numbers are sharp.i might regret it , but i've sold myself on dallas in a big way ..even with adjustments 7 is a big number. i can see that in the spurs last 20 games they have only beat 3 teams by 8 or more
(okl,clips,&g.s) i think dallas shows up win or lose!

 

[axp59]

What about in Texas. I am still leaning Under

anybody?

This one is a flip of a coin for me. :shrug:

 

[axp59]

ax i'm waiting for you to sell me:00x31 might just sit back and enjoy

Man, I got nothing to sell today so I guess that's why I went with the ML parlay. I think that might be enough action for me today.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

?We?re a better defensive team? than they showed in Game 1, Rivers said. ?We?re going to win because of our defense and, if we get more stops, Ray will get more shots and he?ll get more shots in rhythm? since the Bulls will have less time to set up their defense.
?

There is a prop Ray Allen o18.5 that sounds pretty solid, no way he's gonna have another bad night and looks like they will play on him more as well.

P Pierce o24.5 not bad, Parker o24.5 or o7.5 asst, he should take more responsibility, especially with Timmy's health issues.
Current lean at Ray Allen.

 

[Ools]

Dallas game comes down to stopping Tony Parker - that is key to beating Spurs now. Duncan isn't the same this year and without Ginoboli you can double him in the post with less threat.. And when you have the likes of Matt Bonner starting at center - playing 18 minutes with 0 pts, 1 shot attempt, and 1 rebound you can't go to far.

Does Dallas have the eye of the tiger here?

 

[Turc]

There is a prop Ray Allen o18.5 that sounds pretty solid, no way he's gonna have another bad night and looks like they will play on him more as well.

P Pierce o24.5 not bad, Parker o24.5 or o7.5 asst, he should take more responsibility, especially with Timmy's health issues.
Current lean at Ray Allen.

i don't want to discourage you since i have no opinion on the prop bets but keep in mind ray allen was virtually non-factor until nba finals last year, so there is a precedence of him taking couple games off.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

i don't want to discourage you since i have no opinion on the prop bets but keep in mind ray allen was virtually non-factor until nba finals last year, so there is a precedence of him taking couple games off.

No prob, I'm a situational capper, what he did a year or a month ago is not relevant (apart from avg shooting as a measure of his overall skill).

He shot awful and the coach himself said that he will play on Allen taking more shots. His season avg is 48% (19ppg avg against Bulls, 1-2 against current line) and Bulls, on avg in road games, allow better efficiency to opp guards. He shot terrible at 1/12 and such an important player will want to get into the groove for the reminder of the series, so it's realistic to expect him playing more to (or better than) his avg while taking more shots. At the same time the Bulls took a great and unexpected win while playing above their defensive abilities and for a young team it's realistic to expect that they don't repeat the same performance.
So, in conclusion, it's realistic that Ray Allen will shoot more and shoot better, while the D he's facing will play worse -> Ray Allen o 18.5

I'm putting him on at least 60% chance to have a good game (shooting 50% while taking 14+ shots), and I'm getting 57% from my book.

 

[Turc]

best of luck to you.

locked in mavs/spurs under 189, fwiw.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Clutch $$ :toast:

thx, bol to you too man

 

[axp59]

Clutch $$ :toast:

thx, bol to you too man

:toast:

 

[burnetto57]

burnetto57

burnetto57

Obviously, I've been mostly lurking/tailing w/ playoffs - cuz of my peeked interest in MLB. I have to say though, the 'conventional' expectations of, 1st - "It's the Playoffs so the #s r goin to be lower" and that was almost 100% unrealized. And, 2, now I'm hearing quite a bit about; " Well, certainly, now in 2nd game the adjustments will cause 'D' to be better and points to be down" - again it is not happening. As a matter a fact - so far, from what I have seen, teams seem to be trying to outscore each other to win. So, unless there is a substantial adjustment by linesmakers on O/U I will be leaning Over next 2 days until I see a couple Unders. I know it's not conventional - but it's happening. I did go small on both Overs today, FWIW. :shrug:

 

[easterntimezone]

:toast:

Hopefully, it's not too premature, but Ax -

:thumb:

:mj06: