NBA MON 051109 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[axp59]

Today is not a good day to take off. With only 4 games in MLB, there isn't much to cap today.

HUGE value today. Those thinking CLE ML will be overpaying. Yes, there is a better than 3/4 chance CLE wins but the money you lay on this will kill you if by some act of god ATL takes this game. If you're prepared to chase this, I believe you can mitigate some risk but think about how much you will need to lay the next game just to break even.
Here's a possible play tonight. I'm not a proven 1H player since I haven't posted any 1H but ATL +5.5 is tremendous value in this spot.
Any thoughts?

BOL guys

 

[pkkingster15]

Hey Ax,

I know I don't post too much over here, but since coming over from Covers with you, you've been incredible here. I can't believe how right on with this play you are. This is a perfect spot for the Hawks with these points in the first half. Laying everything on the line here, I don't think they will be able to sustain it for the whole game, but LeBron will not be able to hold them down off the start. Let's not forget how nuts Philips Arena was last year against Boston, and how loud it was even in Game 3. These fans aren't going to lay down, and neither are the Hawks. The only thing I see getting them down here is if both JJ and Bibby get off to a real cold start, and LeBron doesn't let them recover. BOL today Ax, now that my school has finished up for the year, I should be more a participant over here. Keep up the good work buddy!

 

[axp59]

Thanks pkingster. I want to add, don't pay the -115 some books are asking. If this thing drops to +5 -110, this is still a good play. BTW, pk, I wasn't so bad on the other side either.

 

[mpnyc76]

using this logic, you think the Mavs first half would be a nice play too?

 

[axp59]

NO, the Mavs have lead once after 1H in only 1 of their 7 matchups this season and never at home. The difference here is that DAL is favored 1H -.5 The value with ATL is that they are getting 5.5

 

[JBrilman]

Today is not a good day to take off. With only 4 games in MLB, there isn't much to cap today.

HUGE value today. Those thinking CLE ML will be overpaying. Yes, there is a better than 3/4 chance CLE wins but the money you lay on this will kill you if by some act of god ATL takes this game. If you're prepared to chase this, I believe you can mitigate some risk but think about how much you will need to lay the next game just to break even.
Here's a possible play tonight. I'm not a proven 1H player since I haven't posted any 1H but ATL +5.5 is tremendous value in this spot.
Any thoughts?

BOL guys

If your betting on ATL than 1H is definitely the play as that has been the only time they have even been in the game during this series.

I can't bet my money on a team down 0-3 to a team 7-0 ATS in the playoffs on ANY HALF especially when the that team has twice as many THUGS as any other team and an even bigger chance to LAY DOWN tonight knowing that a whole summer of "poppin bottles and fuckin models" is ahead of them...

JUST MY OPINION

 

[JBrilman]

I probably wont play much today as I used up a lot of winnings and bank roll on some other projects I have going (non betting related) until the first week of June. Silly I know as we have been SO hot but as AX likes to make reference to now and again there is REGRESSION and I am going to tread lightly for the next week or so...

MOST LIKELY MY ONLY PLAY TONIGHT

2 TEAM PARLAY

DEN ML
CLE -9

 

[BIGWave]

Not sure I agree about the HAWKS and their all out effort in this game....
Wouldn't that have been the thoughts last game - their first AT HOME where they had been so good - put in maximum effort and take it to these Cavs that had beaten on them in CLEV???

I see the CAVS on a mission. And who wants to win tonight to go back to CLEV to get completely hammered????

Now - for the conspiracy theorist.............since DEN should also look after DALLAS - a team they have beat 9 of the ladt 10 times and 4 of the last 5 games in DALLAS - what will the NBA do with no games on WEDNESDAY?????? :scared Hmmm............

INCREDIBLE run AGAIN ax!!!! Top notch for sure.

 

[axp59]

If your betting on ATL than 1H is definitely the play as that has been the only time they have even been in the game during this series.

I can't bet my money on a team down 0-3 to a team 7-0 ATS in the playoffs on ANY HALF especially when the that team has twice as many THUGS as any other team and an even bigger chance to LAY DOWN tonight knowing that a whole summer of "poppin bottles and fuckin models" is ahead of them...

JUST MY OPINION

Damn Bril, that's what I have planned this summer. :SIB

 

[axp59]

Not sure I agree about the HAWKS and their all out effort in this game....
Wouldn't that have been the thoughts last game - their first AT HOME where they had been so good - put in maximum effort and take it to these Cavs that had beaten on them in CLEV???

I see the CAVS on a mission. And who wants to win tonight to go back to CLEV to get completely hammered????

Now - for the conspiracy theorist.............since DEN should also look after DALLAS - a team they have beat 9 of the ladt 10 times and 4 of the last 5 games in DALLAS - what will the NBA do with no games on WEDNESDAY?????? :scared Hmmm............

INCREDIBLE run AGAIN ax!!!! Top notch for sure.

Thanks BWD. I can't recall the 1H number the previous game. I'm just a number cruncher and I match up numbers to value. Been board watching most of the day today. the recent ML move on DEN actually gives them positive value for the first time. The ATL +545 coupled with their 23% chance of winning this game gives them nearly $50 per $100 value.
Think of going out drinking one night. Here in Beantown, if I have 6 beers, I'll pay roughly $40. Add food, parking and misc., it's certain to be at least a $100 evening. Now, instead of going out, take some of that and put it on the ATL ML. What's a little pocket change @+545.

 

[JBrilman]

Damn Bril, that's what I have planned this summer. :SIB

OH AX,

Been there done that...

It wasn't all that it was cracked up to be...prefer my quiet life at home with my wife and 2 year old (girl genius) now....

OFF TOPIC
In fact we are contemplating a move to San Diego by years end to get the hell out of this god for saken town...I might have to get an online book after all if I can't find a good local there. There is something to be said for betting and receiving your winnings in a timely manner (if you win).

 

[Truckin']

Thanks BWD. I can't recall the 1H number the previous game. I'm just a number cruncher and I match up numbers to value. Been board watching most of the day today. the recent ML move on DEN actually gives them positive value for the first time. The ATL +545 coupled with their 23% chance of winning this game gives them nearly $50 per $100 value.
Think of going out drinking one night. Here in Beantown, if I have 6 beers, I'll pay roughly $40. Add food, parking and misc., it's certain to be at least a $100 evening. Now, instead of going out, take some of that and put it on the ATL ML. What's a little pocket change @+545.

The Cavs due for a Stinker :shrug:
Kind of like what happened in Houston yesterday.

I like the 1st half +5 and ML is def worth a small gamble IMO

I Hit both ML's yesterday so why not

I think Dallas brings the wood tonight. Regardless if they can win this series or not somebody going to pay for the game #3 ROB JOB!!!! :box2: :box2:

GL Today

 

[JBrilman]

The Cavs due for a Stinker :shrug:
Kind of like what happened in Houston yesterday.

I like the 1st half +5 and ML is def worth a small gamble IMO

I Hit both ML's yesterday so why not

I think Dallas brings the wood tonight. Regardless if they can win this series or not somebody going to pay for the game #3 ROB JOB!!!! :box2: :box2:

GL Today

Denver has beaten Dallas SEVEN times this season. The games have been close and they have been BLOWOUTS...Either way denver finds a way to win.

DENVER just has their number and its hard to get up for this game if your Dallas....

BOL if you take Dallas

 

[Truckin']

Denver has beaten Dallas SEVEN times this season. The games have been close and they have been BLOWOUTS...Either way denver finds a way to win.

DENVER just has their number and its hard to get up for this game if your Dallas....

BOL if you take Dallas

I agree that Denver has there number. Dallas should of won the last game.

I think getting up for this game based on a team beating you 7 straight shouldn't be to hard. Its my opinion but my fire would be burning HOT tonight and with all the Vets on this team Dallas will not lay down tonight at home or anywhere. NO Way
I could see the Thuggets coming into this one over confident.

Hopefully the public will keep loading up On Denver ML I am seeing 75%

Appreciate it & BOL to U

GL

 

[Flandroy]

what i think is denver will finish dallas tonight they are in top form and have clear mental advantage over dallas.

+10 is huge handicap and hawks are not such pushovers for sure. +5.5 ht playable as well maybe even better value as ht. this looks underish to me.

gl

 

[JBrilman]

Dallas should of won the last game.

GL

It wasn't the MISSED call that beat them...

it was the lack of defense when MELO drove thru the lane and DUNKED on everyone with less than a minute, or letting NENE lay it up with no foul, or Terry or Howard missing a free throw in the last minute

those are the reasons they lost and the MAVS KNOW that they are lucky to have the refs to blame but in truth they only have themselves...

BOL

 

[BIGWave]

Teaser: Basketball 5, 5? 7 Point Teaser
Selection : 1 NBA Basketball for Game
Cleveland Cavaliers 11-May-2009 4:05 PM PST
Spread -4.5 for Game

Selection : 2 NBA Basketball for Game
Houston Rockets 12-May-2009 7:35 PM PST
Spread +17.5 for Game

:0corn

 

[JBrilman]

FINAL CARD FOR ME FELLAS

1 UNIT
2 TEAM 5.5 PT TSR
CLE -4.5
DEN +7.5

1.4 UNITS
2 TEAM PARLAY
DEN ML
CLE -10


BOLTA TONIGHT!!

 

[Griffin8s]

Cavs have 11 straight ATS wins. I know I'm not hopping off this money train until it derails!!!:00hour Atlanta has their bags packed and tickets in their lockers ready to go. Think about it do they want to have to go to Cleveland and lose there then fly back to Atl. just to fly back out again on vac.??? No way!!:mj07: Besides LBJ and crew can get as much rest as needed so they can go all out here and play the minutes needed to seal the deal. James wants to have that break to get prepared for Orl/Bos. which will turn into another nice 7 gm series they will have to wait on.

On the later game I find this one a tougher call. Still working on this one if I even touch it at all.

Thanks for the hard work and help this weekend everyone, I pulled out a 4-0 in the NBA. :toast:

 

[jr11]

I am a degenerate, and with my thinking the NBA needs a game for Wednesday night, I can't see Atlanta winning outright, therefore that leaves me Dallas. No rhyme, no other reason, no line movement or anti-consensus or trend, just a hunch. I will sit out the first game to see if my theory works. If Atlanta loses, I will play Dallas.

jr11