NBA MON 051109 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

easterntimezone

Shieh-sen
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Mar 18, 2009
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Here's a possible play tonight. I'm not a proven 1H player since I haven't posted any 1H but ATL +5.5 is tremendous value in this spot.
Any thoughts?

The Hawks are the last of the playoff pretenders alongside the Mavericks - have been all season and rode a Joe Johnson hot streak to build up their record; after all, they were the team that the Magic laid a 30+ point beatdown in January.

Are they motivated enough staring an 0-3 deficit to try and make this game a contest? Johnson's inconsistency this series has been the deciding factor. Expecting the Cavs to wrap it up tonight in a businesslike fashion...

Weighing the variables:

Hawks already on vacation? Or is there a semblance of residual pride left in trying to make this series quasi-respectable?

The Cavs KNOW this series is effectively over; do they conserve their energy and eke out a win or go full bore and leave this game in no doubt as to the outcome? LeBron has been focused and Cleveland takes its lead from him - ATL relies on Johnson for the same, but sadly for the Hawks, Johnson's skills doesn't come remotely close to James's bevy of talents.

Still unsure...

Preference on taking Denver in the other contest as Billups smells the "kill".

Best of luck.
 

JBrilman

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Mar 18, 2009
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The Hawks are the last of the playoff pretenders alongside the Mavericks - have been all season and rode a Joe Johnson hot streak to build up their record; after all, they were the team that the Magic laid a 30+ point beatdown in January.

Are they motivated enough staring an 0-3 deficit to try and make this game a contest? Johnson's inconsistency this series has been the deciding factor. Expecting the Cavs to wrap it up tonight in a businesslike fashion...

Weighing the variables:

Hawks already on vacation? Or is there a semblance of residual pride left in trying to make this series quasi-respectable?

The Cavs KNOW this series is effectively over; do they conserve their energy and eke out a win or go full bore and leave this game in no doubt as to the outcome? LeBron has been focused and Cleveland takes its lead from him - ATL relies on Johnson for the same, but sadly for the Hawks, Johnson's skills doesn't come remotely close to James's bevy of talents.

Still unsure...

Preference on taking Denver in the other contest as Billups smells the "kill".

Best of luck.


someone posted this quote from Joe Johnson on the other side. Sure sounds like they know they are way over matched and ready for summer to me...

?I don?t know what we?ve got left,? Johnson said as he walked to his car after practice. ?Hopefully, we?ll play with a little fire and not let them close it out on our home court. But I don?t know.

?In the fourth quarter we shot too many jump shots instead of getting to the basket, and that kills you every time,? Johnson said. ?We just don?t play like we really want to win. We?re playing like we?re hoping we?re going to win, not like we know we?re going to win.?
 

PeePee

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Don't think Atl can sustain the momentum (if they have one) throughout the game but should be able to keep it close in 1H, as in game 3.
Will wait for more line movement as everyone going for Cle, hopefully to +6. And of course, waiting on Ax "the man".
 

grindstone

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Here are the lastest public #'s


Clev/Atl

Spread
Clev 79%
Atl 21% Bet # 35432

Total
72% Over
28% Under


Den/Dall

Spread Bet # 29275
Dall 51%
Den 49%

Total
71% Over
29% Under
 

axp59

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Oct 8, 2008
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NBA [731] DEN GM4 +2?-110 1U

NBA [1730] 1H ATL GM4 +5?-110 1U

NBA [730] ATL GM4 +545 1/20U

BOL with your action!
 

Ools

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Mar 18, 2009
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NBA [731] DEN GM4 +2?-110 1U

NBA [1730] 1H ATL GM4 +5?-110 1U

NBA [730] ATL GM4 +545 1/20U

BOL with your action!

workin late -- trailed ya on these

good luck to us!!
 

ari

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May 6, 2009
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Hey Ax,

What are your thoughts on the totals if I may ask.

Joe - here are some numbers on the Refs for the Nug game - from a reliable source on another forum. With all the $ on the over, a large number, and these refs - I like the Under. As always - interested in what other think.

Marc Davis 22 overs 46 unders
Joe DeRosa 31 overs 38 unders
Steve Javie 31 overs 39 unders
For a grand total of.......84 overs and 123 unders 60% chance it goes under.
 

JBrilman

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Mar 18, 2009
648
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Las Vegas
Joe - here are some numbers on the Refs for the Nug game - from a reliable source on another forum. With all the $ on the over, a large number, and these refs - I like the Under. As always - interested in what other think.

Marc Davis 22 overs 46 unders
Joe DeRosa 31 overs 38 unders
Steve Javie 31 overs 39 unders
For a grand total of.......84 overs and 123 unders 60% chance it goes under.

I saw that...

also last game had WAY to many free throws and a shot at the buzzer to go over...
 

JBrilman

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Nice hit AX almost MOOSED but ATL held on...

I just couldnt put my money there! If cavs shoot well at the line Cavs cover...

PILE UP ON THE CAVS 2nd HALF...I MEAN PILE
 

Eagle123

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Mar 18, 2009
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"ATL +5.5 is tremendous value in this spot."


Ax............:mj06: :mj06: :mj06:
 

Ools

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Mar 18, 2009
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i took cavs -6.5 and und 92.5
 
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