NBA Payday 05 2009 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[proguy747]

Here is a little info on the refs.

Bill Kennedy - Profile
GeneralJersey Number 55 Avg. Home Score 100.9
Games Officiated 72 Avg. Road Score 98.6
Home Team ATS 37-34-1 Home Avg. Margin 2.4
Home Team W/L 43-29 Avg. Total Score 199.5
Over/Under vs. the TotalOverall 29-42
184.5 or less 5-4
185-194.5 3-14
195-204.5 9-13
205+ 12-11

Favorite or UnderdogSpread Home Fav Home Dog
0-4.5 11-8 7-5
5-9.5 9-12 5-4
10+ 5-4 0-1



Monty McCutchen - Profile
GeneralJersey Number 13 Avg. Home Score 101.8
Games Officiated 77 Avg. Road Score 98.5
Home Team ATS 39-37-0 Home Avg. Margin 3.2
Home Team W/L 48-29 Avg. Total Score 200.3
Over/Under vs. the TotalOverall 38-38
184.5 or less 3-4
185-194.5 13-7
195-204.5 11-16
205+ 11-11

Favorite or UnderdogSpread Home Fav Home Dog
0-4.5 12-3 11-5
5-9.5 8-19 5-5
10+ 2-5 1-0



Tom Washington - Profile
GeneralJersey Number 49 Avg. Home Score 101.9
Games Officiated 76 Avg. Road Score 97.6
Home Team ATS 41-35-0 Home Avg. Margin 4.2
Home Team W/L 45-31 Avg. Total Score 199.5
Over/Under vs. the TotalOverall 34-40
184.5 or less 3-2
185-194.5 19-11
195-204.5 5-16
205+ 7-11

Favorite or UnderdogSpread Home Fav Home Dog
0-4.5 5-8 5-4
5-9.5 19-14 5-4
10+ 7-4 0-1

 

[proguy747]

I have been using this info helping me cap some games during the playoffs.

By the numbers it looks as though the ticky tac fouls on howard might not happen tonight.

I think that the public will believe that no way the cavs lose two in a row. They are probably right, but will they cover the spread?

 

[Griffin8s]

I think that the public will believe that no way the cavs lose two in a row. They are probably right, but will they cover the spread?

That is the question of the day isn't it. I was hoping for a better line on this game maybe in the 5-7 range but don't see that happening. Cavs in the last few seem like they been having their problem of years past. Come out cold in the 3rd and let a team get back in the game. I saw it in the game the other night and thought it's ok they always come strong in the 4th, well they never did. I can't see myself playing a side to but as for the total think the Over is the play for me.
GL to all.:toast:

 

[barts185]

Not sure about covering the spread in the game, but I like them to come out strong in the first quarter. I laid 3 on CLE in first quarter.

Overall CLE won their first quarters by 4.3 points.

After a loss by 7.1 points.

After a loss and playing at home by 8.8 points.

Now only 3 of those games were against opponents with a win percentage of better than 60%. So, how did CLE do in those 3 spots? They won the first quarter by 16, 11 and 1 (oops).

Good Luck,
Bart

 

[proguy747]

20060310 CLE ORL A 73-102 1&3 34-57 -3 +187 -29 -32.0 -12.0 -22.0 10.0 L L U
20061216 CLE ORL A 74-81 0&1 36-41 -1' +182' -7 -8.5 -27.5 -18.0 -9.5 L L U
20061223 CLE ORL H 86-83 1&0 40-43 -7 +179' 3 -4.0 -10.5 -7.2 -3.2 W L U
20070122 CLE ORL H 79-90 1&1 39-54 -4' +181' -11 -15.5 -12.5 -14.0 1.5 L L U
20071114 CLE ORL H 116-117 1&0 45-47 -3 +194' -1 -4.0 38.5 17.2 21.2 L L O 1
20080211 CLE ORL A 118-111 0&2 53-48 +8 +197' 7 15.0 31.5 23.2 8.2 W W O
20080317 CLE ORL A 90-104 0&1 43-39 +6' +203 -14 -7.5 -9.0 -8.2 -0.8 L L U
20080405 CLE ORL H 86-101 1&3 38-46 -2 +197 -15 -17.0 -10.0 -13.5 3.5 L L U

Date Team Opp Site Final Rest FG% Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
20090129 CLE ORL A 88-99 1&1 41-45 +4' +195' -11 -6.5 -8.5 -7.5 -1.0 L L U
20090317 CLE ORL H 97-93 1&1 46-45 -6 +192' 4 -2.0 -2.5 -2.2 -0.2 W L U
20090403 CLE ORL A 87-116 0&1 36-53 +3' +187 -29 -25.5 16.0 -4.8 20.8 L L O
20090520 CLE ORL H 106-107 8&2 48-55 -8' +185' -1 -9.5 27.5 9.0 18.5 L L O

Looks like the cavs ran into the one team that matches up the best against them.

 

[proguy747]

Will I bet moneyline tonight on magic again? no. The magic did this in boston and came out flat in game two. I dont believe the magic can fall behind like they did in game one and come from behind. I think the cavs rust is off and will be back playiing as a team.

This game will play out two ways. 1. A complete blowout by the cavs. In this case the under will be the play. 2. The magic come out strong and play hard and will have a chance at the end of the game and the over gets smashed again.


On a future note, the lakers bench will suck ars in denver. Grab the denver line right away when it comes out. Then wait on game four. Crawford shold be in town for the lakers. Take the lakers and OVER.

 

[axp59]

Pair the CLE ML with any play tonight. BOL fellas.

 

[harlytiger]

Believe Clev wins tonight....but i offer this question what makes you think anything will be different from Game 1. in my openion Denver and orlando have been the most consistant teams in the playoffs due to bench work........
see last min shot tonight also and refs on cavs due to making this a 1-1 series and going 7. Love the over and orlando.....

 

[proguy747]

Believe Clev wins tonight....but i offer this question what makes you think anything will be different from Game 1. in my openion Denver and orlando have been the most consistant teams in the playoffs due to bench work........
see last min shot tonight also and refs on cavs due to making this a 1-1 series and going 7. Love the over and orlando.....

well I believe that the cavs got lazy and looked for lebron to take over. The cavs players penetrated and dished for easy looks. The second half they fell asleep and watched lebron. Will this happen again? I dont think so. but the numbers above dont lie.

magic +9

 

[mpnyc76]

Pair the CLE ML with any
play tonight. BOL fellas.

Cleveland is favored 9 points, this is for their lives. don't mean to be a jerk but this isn't much of a tip. I am leaning cavs first half. i think they come out the way they did in game one, question is whether they can maintain that. When magic took game one in beantown they were satisfied and lost the next one by 16 - does this happen again?

 

[axp59]

It's not a tip, just a reminder. Value shoppers should already know this. The tricky part is the other play in this pair. Could be TOR mlb.

 

[Ace_Ace]

It's not a tip, just a reminder. Value shoppers should already know this. The tricky part is the other play in this pair. Could be TOR mlb.

I agree with Cle ML

I am doing my research but damn this ORL magic team got matchup adv in this series.

Hedo, Lewis & Superman...wow!

......cle got serious problems here.:0corn

 

[mpnyc76]

that was my next question to you. what's your lean on side and total?

 

[ImNext1000]

ORL +9 and Orioles parlay

lets go !!!:mj06:

BOL !!!

 

[proguy747]

ORL +9 and Orioles parlay

lets go !!!:mj06:

BOL !!!

I looked into o's, toronto and cavs ml.

 

[KillerKardoogan]

don't mean to be a jerk but this isn't much of a tip.

Dude, there is one game today.
Do you really expect Ax to have a winner on everything?
Ax gave very wise advice a few days ago when he said this is not about how big your balls are.

However, I believe he was talking about his balls and not mine, so therefore, I will give you my POD :142smilie

In all seriousness, Bart has already mentioned it.
CLE 1Q -3
-115 is still availiable (not for long)

I put this at about 78% to cover, which is almost as good as it gets.

 

[Truckin']

I like the under tonight
Cleveland's D will show up tonight and will be out on all shooters. Also think Clev will slow the game down and make the Magic grind it out in half court.
Magic's shots will not be falling like game 1

Looks like books are begging for Orlando money +9
so far 60%

I think the Cav's cover and hold Orlando to low 80's

Predicted score 95 -82

BOL

 

[JBrilman]

don't mean to be a jerk but this isn't much of a tip.

Give Ax your login and password for your online book and he will just make your bets everyday for you, that way you don't have to think about it.

Sound like a plan?

Oh but he is going to change the cash out account to his own and then distribute the money to who ever posts the most winners for the Finals?:00hour :00hour


BOL TONIGHT no action on this game for me. I will wait till the series heads to Orlando for game 3 and take Orlando.

 

[mpnyc76]

why is it that Ax doesn't get mad but you little cheerleaders do? get off the man's nutsac already. jeez!! i posted my thoughts, not looking for a play to tail. I was just writing that a Cavs ML play is a pretty obvious play, the bigger issue was the second play to tie it too which Ax provided his thoughts on. please read before you comment or is your love for Ax clouding your thinking?

 

[JBrilman]

why is it that Ax doesn't get mad but you little cheerleaders do? get off the man's nutsac already. jeez!! i posted my thoughts, not looking for a play to tail. I was just writing that a Cavs ML play is a pretty obvious play, the bigger issue was the second play to tie it too which Ax provided his thoughts on. please read before you comment or is your love for Ax clouding your thinking?

you start a statement off with "Don't mean to be a jerk":nono:

What exactly did you mean then?:shrug:

That was my point nothing else. These are my forums as much as they are Ax's as much as they are yours, they are for all of us to come and share our thoughts. You lose sight of that often and drop disrespectful one liners. Have some tact. You last post lacked it as well.

BOL Tonight