NBA Playoffs
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
- Dec 13, 2005
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167.5 was easily the line to pound with these two teams. Almost 30 pts below closing line, unreal value.
Juts hold out till the line is at least 15 pts off. Just make small bets everytime it drops till it gets to low and pound it.
Juts hold out till the line is at least 15 pts off. Just make small bets everytime it drops till it gets to low and pound it.
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- Dec 13, 2005
- 1,772
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- Jul 17, 2008
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I like the Bulls :0074
you needed 115 & I need 117 in 2nd half to win the game Unreal :mj07:
So you didn't get it until it went back up to 193 right before tip? That total just shot up all of a sudden. Takes ALOT of money to move it 1/1.5 pts that late, really validated my play (*read: 'sharp money').
UNREAL cover on the total. Glad you cashed with me Truckin. :toast:
- Jul 17, 2008
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Had 192.5 for game & played 2nd half over 95.5 for half my game bet as some damage control and ended up winning both. The game total winning was like found money!!!!!!!
1st & 2nd Round Recap
1st & 2nd Round Recap
Full Game Sides:
9-10 -12.8x
Full Game Totals:
12-6 +35.2x
2nd Half Sides:
5-8 -20.9x
2nd Half Totals:
11-8 +10.1x
Live In-Play:
9-3 +31.7x
ML Parlays:
0-2 -25x
Series:
1-1 +5.5x
TOTAL:
47-38 +12.8x
Didn't do as well in the 2nd round... Got myself into trouble early with some bad halftime bets that I probably put too much on. Really rebounded well in the last week though. Still doing better better with totals, but my goal is to get both the full game and 2nd half sides in the black along with both the totals. Was happy to close the Conf Semifinals with a bang and open up the Conf Finals with a win on da Bulls last night.
As for tomorrow night, I am looking at the Thunder plus the points. I'm also noticing the total is creeping up, but I will be watching that closely as I expect it to move right before gametime.
1st & 2nd Round Recap
Full Game Sides:
9-10 -12.8x
Full Game Totals:
12-6 +35.2x
2nd Half Sides:
5-8 -20.9x
2nd Half Totals:
11-8 +10.1x
Live In-Play:
9-3 +31.7x
ML Parlays:
0-2 -25x
Series:
1-1 +5.5x
TOTAL:
47-38 +12.8x
Didn't do as well in the 2nd round... Got myself into trouble early with some bad halftime bets that I probably put too much on. Really rebounded well in the last week though. Still doing better better with totals, but my goal is to get both the full game and 2nd half sides in the black along with both the totals. Was happy to close the Conf Semifinals with a bang and open up the Conf Finals with a win on da Bulls last night.
As for tomorrow night, I am looking at the Thunder plus the points. I'm also noticing the total is creeping up, but I will be watching that closely as I expect it to move right before gametime.
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5/17
I really feel that the Thunder have a good chance of catching Dallas sleeping coming off of a long layoff. Its all about momentum here and there's no way the Mavs could carry that over from beating the Lakers 9 days ago. That is an eternity in an NBA season when the longest a team is used to having off is 3 or 4 days max. BUT I'm not sure I see value on the spread, beacuse IF OKC is going to cover, they'll win SU IMO... otherwise, I see Dallas keeping their amazing ATS streak alive. Not a big play here, but I may have something larger on the total as we get closer to gametime...
THUNDER ML +215 2x to win 4.3x -2x
GLTA
:toast:
I really feel that the Thunder have a good chance of catching Dallas sleeping coming off of a long layoff. Its all about momentum here and there's no way the Mavs could carry that over from beating the Lakers 9 days ago. That is an eternity in an NBA season when the longest a team is used to having off is 3 or 4 days max. BUT I'm not sure I see value on the spread, beacuse IF OKC is going to cover, they'll win SU IMO... otherwise, I see Dallas keeping their amazing ATS streak alive. Not a big play here, but I may have something larger on the total as we get closer to gametime...
THUNDER ML +215 2x to win 4.3x -2x
GLTA
:toast:
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Throwing another 2 units on this as at the better number... if there's one game they have the best chance to win in Big D, its this one....
THUNDER ML +225 2x to win 4.5x -2x
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ha! I'm surprised to see anyone else on okc... I already played them meself, and now I'm going thru to see what everyone else is thinking....
glad to see I'm lined up w/you!
ps... I also like the over (havt played it yet) and okc +6
BoL~LoB
glad to see I'm lined up w/you!
ps... I also like the over (havt played it yet) and okc +6
BoL~LoB
I also have a strong lean to the under... I may make a play, I may not... but if I do it'll be right up close to game time. I wanna watch the line, but its telling me to play the other side as the public is favoring the over heavily. There's a reason that vegas opened this line at 192 and I'll tell you they didn't release it there to get one sided action on the over. Everyone knows, vegas included, that each of the regular season matchups between these two teams went over with the lowest final total being 194 on Jan 6th, but in order to be getting balanced action on both sides of this total they would have to be taking lager-sized wagers on the under (read: sharp money).
Sometimes its as simple as what happened in the regular season, hence the obvious play being on the over, but remember what happened in the first two games on the Thunder-Grizz series, where everyone thought the over would keep hitting like it did in the regular season. Well it does games 1 & 2, but then what happens?... well it goes under in regulation the following four games and just as easily could have gone under in game 7. Sharps were heavy on the under game one, didn't come through. Over hits again in game 2, they wait for an over-adjustment by the books in game 3 (total over 201) and they hammer the under. Maybe that's the move here, sit back and wait for the books to make an adjustment after a game or two. But I like this situation right here and there could be value at the half, although if this game goes under, it'll be because the teams started out shooting a low percentage IMO, thus a first half play could be in order. Dallas shaking off rust, OKC adjusting to the jitters in a new and loud arena. If they do come out like gangbusters and the first half is higher scoring, well then there will be value on the the under 2nd half and that's the best situation you can hope for.
Holding off.... for now... :00x32
Sometimes its as simple as what happened in the regular season, hence the obvious play being on the over, but remember what happened in the first two games on the Thunder-Grizz series, where everyone thought the over would keep hitting like it did in the regular season. Well it does games 1 & 2, but then what happens?... well it goes under in regulation the following four games and just as easily could have gone under in game 7. Sharps were heavy on the under game one, didn't come through. Over hits again in game 2, they wait for an over-adjustment by the books in game 3 (total over 201) and they hammer the under. Maybe that's the move here, sit back and wait for the books to make an adjustment after a game or two. But I like this situation right here and there could be value at the half, although if this game goes under, it'll be because the teams started out shooting a low percentage IMO, thus a first half play could be in order. Dallas shaking off rust, OKC adjusting to the jitters in a new and loud arena. If they do come out like gangbusters and the first half is higher scoring, well then there will be value on the the under 2nd half and that's the best situation you can hope for.
Holding off.... for now... :00x32
LoB, glad to see we're on the same side... I'm just hoping OKC can win this SU.
I have a lean to the under... you can see my reasoning above, but it mostly has to do with the opening line and the line movement thereafter.
Total is still climbing, moreso at the square shops. If you like the over, I would wait until just minutes or secs before tipoff as I expect there will be a sudden drop 20-30 mins before start... whether that's a wiseguy buyback for the middle or a true position they are taking is anyones guess, but I'm sure that it was sharp money that began the ascent from 192 as they usually like to get ahead of the market, no matter what their true intentions are in terms of a final position. Either way, if you're going over, wait.
BOL with whatever you decide to go with LoB :toast:
- Jul 17, 2008
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