NBA PLAYS (Wednesday)

[Nolan Dalla]

HOUSTON +4.5 vs. MILWAUKEE
Rockets are the better team tight now, as Bucks have looked dreadful the past two weeks. Oddsmakers continue to downgrade the Bucks at home (last game line was -3.5 vs. Miami, now -4.5 vs. Houston), and as long as a decent team like the Rockets (when healthy) are getting points, Milwaukee is in a good fade position. Since Jan. 21st:
Jan. 22 Phoenix 92, Milwaukee 81
Jan. 24 Seattle 99, Milwaukee 88
Jan. 26 New York 129, Milwaukee 127
Jan. 29 Milwaukee 109, Boston 90
Jan. 31 New Jersey 125, Milwaukee 100
Feb. 2 Philadelphia 86, Milwaukee 81
Feb. 7 Milwaukee 107, Memphis 103
Feb. 12 Chicago 96, Milwaukee 92
Feb. 13 Cleveland 115, Milwaukee 107
Feb. 15 Miami 90, Milwaukee 88
Feb. 17 Milwaukee 91, Toronto 86
Feb. 18 Charlotte 101, Milwaukee 92
That's 2-10 ATS last 12 games. Milwaukee will eventually turn it around and go on a win streak, but I think they struggle until the revenge game versus Lakers next week. Bucks have a four game homestand, but I just don't see them getting up emotionally for the Rockets (if this was versus Sixers or Lakers, that might be different). Meanwhile, Houston continues to improve its record and plays tough most nights. Their biggest loss in the last three weeks was the 9-point defeat to Oralndo two games ago -- but he final score was deceiving. Rockets were in that game til the end.
Other trends:
HOU won the last three meetings ATS & SU.
HOU is 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall.
MILW 6-17 ATS on a days rest.
MILW is 3-9 ATS on a days rest vs. a team on a days rest.
MILW is 2-7 ATS at home vs. teams under 500.
Looks to be a good moneyline play on Rockets to win, possibly. Expect a close game, where the 4.5 might be the difference. Playing Houston.


DENVER +6.5 vs. UTAH
This is a contrarian play based on completely opposite public perceptions of the two teams. Utah has been on an absolute tear on the road lately, while Denver has been blown out the last two games. However -- I think linesmakers are over-reacting here, as Utah has to be weary from the travel and Denver returns home after a 2-2 road trip and should play better than the last two games -- losses to NJ and PHILA. Interstingly, Denver is 10-5 ATS this season versus winning teams. Nuggets are a pig of a team, but should play with some motivation, coming off the losses, back at home, against a road weary divisional rival. Playing Denver.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[Nolan Dalla]

I meant to include a few more comments about the UTAH-DEN game:

One thing that is troublesome is that BOTH teams have been on the road the last week, so the road factor is neutral (DEN also returns from East Coast). Also, the return home from road trip FIRST GAME BACK has usually been a good fade situation. I bring up these points because I want readers to know I have thought about these factors. Nevertheless, I still see Denver in a good spot here. Very tempted to play Nuggets on a moneyline getting +210! Right now I'll stick with a straight wager.

Also, Houston ML at +162 is defintely worth a look.

Cheers,

Nolan Dalla

 

[NJO]

thanks for the post

thanks for the post

Much has been made here about how much trouble young, athletic teams like Houston give Milwaukee. The Bucks are due for a bigger effort, but I've probably thought that for 2 weeks and it hasn't happened. I agree that Houston is the right side here.

As for Denver, I really like this contrarian play. Very likely, I am going to hold my nose and play that one

Good luck!

 

[Big Daddy]

Have you guys heard if Sam Cassell is playing tonight? He has missed 3 of the last 4 games, did not play Monday night, and is listed as day-to-day. I watch a lot of Bucks games, and in my opinion, Cassell is the most important player they have. He runs the show. If he is out, I would really jump on Houston.

 

[THE KOD]

Nolan

Here are my thoughts with the Denver / Utah game .

At this time of year the Utah team is playing on all cylinders just in time for the coming playoffs. I dont think that the Denver Nuggets are thinking about the playoffs. They are just thinking about not embarressing themselves.

The Utah team seems to have come together and even on the road have gone what 5-0 or is it six wins ?
It will be six in a row tonight as Utah will spank Denver and the no heart Nuggets. I think I just read something in free picks about Denver being on your list for having no heart. So tonight against a hot Utah team they will get it all of a sudden ?

If the public loves Utah maybe that is the right side to be on in this game is all I am saying.

The other thing that comes to mind is the way that the Utah streak has been in the media. I think the Utah players are very aware of the streak and want it to continue as it gets them the media attention. So tonight even on tired legs the old men will step up and teach the Nuggets team a lesson in playing hoops.

Maybe a moneyline play on the Utah Jazz would be the money well spent. Then you dont worry about the points.

Good luck tonight, however it turns out !

Scott-Atlanta

 

[baby johnson]

last i heard is cassell will start and play ( probably no more than 30 min)

thanks for the help nolan and friends

 

[dr. freeze]

McDyess might be back tonight........

 

[Valuist]

Nolan--

The Utah/Denver game sounds like it could be a good under possibility, with two road weary teams likely not to push the tempo. Lots of long possessions....

 

[no all]

McDyess is gone till march 1st.

McDyess is gone till march 1st.

That's what I read earlier.

Does anyone have a clue if francis is playing tonight?