NBA pre-flop
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
Need to apologize for yesterday. I tripped over myself and looked past a key situational factor that I use to either rule out a "play on" or help to gather support for a "play against" a certain team. Not sure what I was thinking/doing, but I just missed this. NEVER EVER play on a team in their first game back from a long road trip, especially this late in the season. ALWAYS look to play against these teams. Sacramento fell into that situation last night after they had been away for over a week. I overlooked that factor and would have ruled out the play (at least the ML for sure) if I had caught it. HUGE mistake on my part and I am sorry to jordan23 and anyone else who followed for the poor recommendation.
Tonight, I played DET -2 early on the overnight. Predictably, it is up to -3.5/4 since. This is the second leg of a H&H, revenge angle I would wait for in-running to put anything down on them at this point. If I can get PK or -1, I would play it for 2.5-3x units with live betting.
Only sure tanker tonight is the Knicks. If you can fill out an open leg or start a new parlay with the Magic moneyline, that's not a bad idea. Will be high with a 13-pt spread, but there are some more opportunities late this week to fill out some open parlay spots. (note: DAL-MEM H&H on 4/5 & 4/7 upcoming)
Going against Dallas is a bit iffy tonight. They've won their last two (and three of their last 5), which makes zero sense in the context of what they are trying to do as a franchise. Mavs are 3-1/2 games up on 5th-lowest ATL with just 5 and 4 games left respectively for each team. Might be too late to catch them, but Dallas still has Memphis, New Orleans and Washington to worry about just above them in the standings. Important to remember that draft pick order is determined by a draw and not the final standings. The final standings only determine the odds of getting a certain spot in the draft order, so Dallas is still incentivised to lose to maintain 6th-lowest in the order. In other words, even if they finish 6th-lowest in the standings, there is still a chance (37.2% exactly) that they can keep their 1st round pick this season by landing a top-4 spot. Those odds would be significantly I would expect they put up a clunker tonight at home vs Minnesota who already lost to the Mavs in both meetings earlier this season and may have some motivation for revenge, if nothing else. Need to read up some more on player availability and practice notes for both teams before making a decision, but suffice it to say that a price of even odds or better on Minny looks awfully appealing tonight.
Again, sorry for last night. I fucked up. Feel bad about it.
Tonight, I played DET -2 early on the overnight. Predictably, it is up to -3.5/4 since. This is the second leg of a H&H, revenge angle I would wait for in-running to put anything down on them at this point. If I can get PK or -1, I would play it for 2.5-3x units with live betting.
Only sure tanker tonight is the Knicks. If you can fill out an open leg or start a new parlay with the Magic moneyline, that's not a bad idea. Will be high with a 13-pt spread, but there are some more opportunities late this week to fill out some open parlay spots. (note: DAL-MEM H&H on 4/5 & 4/7 upcoming)
Going against Dallas is a bit iffy tonight. They've won their last two (and three of their last 5), which makes zero sense in the context of what they are trying to do as a franchise. Mavs are 3-1/2 games up on 5th-lowest ATL with just 5 and 4 games left respectively for each team. Might be too late to catch them, but Dallas still has Memphis, New Orleans and Washington to worry about just above them in the standings. Important to remember that draft pick order is determined by a draw and not the final standings. The final standings only determine the odds of getting a certain spot in the draft order, so Dallas is still incentivised to lose to maintain 6th-lowest in the order. In other words, even if they finish 6th-lowest in the standings, there is still a chance (37.2% exactly) that they can keep their 1st round pick this season by landing a top-4 spot. Those odds would be significantly I would expect they put up a clunker tonight at home vs Minnesota who already lost to the Mavs in both meetings earlier this season and may have some motivation for revenge, if nothing else. Need to read up some more on player availability and practice notes for both teams before making a decision, but suffice it to say that a price of even odds or better on Minny looks awfully appealing tonight.
Again, sorry for last night. I fucked up. Feel bad about it.
Tanking = easy parlay
Tanking = easy parlay
If your book permits, this is what to play tonight...
HOU ML x LAC ML x GS ML
For every $100, you should be able to take back about $25
Closest thing to free money you'll find in the NBA.
NO/PHX is a stay away at first glance, although Pels have been a great fade with Holiday out. Booker is out for PHX, but this is the last home game of the season for Phx, which is always a good angle, and some of the young guys should be playing hard looking to make a final impression on the season.
Spread in Utah looks a bit high. Yes its a back to back for Sac travelling into Utah, but this stretch of the final three games is their last chance to finish the season above .500. Sac did beat the Jazz in Utah way back in November, albiet the Jazz were playing their first game back after an extended road trip. Utah is actually the hottest team in the leage right now over their last 10 and motivation for a home court 1st round playoff series is still in play... 2 games behind Portland. I would be a bit suprised if the kings weren't able to keep it somewhat close tonight. Maybe 1st half play makes some sense here.
Not sure what I'm doing with Memphis-Dallas tonight. No Conley gives me pause. There is some motivation for Memphis to want to win tonight and Dallas is still incentivised to lose. It is the 1st leg of a home & home. One strategy would be to make an avg size play on Memphis ML and if they don't win tongiht then come back on the Memphis ML on Sunday to win 2x the previous play.
Tanking = easy parlay
If your book permits, this is what to play tonight...
HOU ML x LAC ML x GS ML
For every $100, you should be able to take back about $25
Closest thing to free money you'll find in the NBA.
NO/PHX is a stay away at first glance, although Pels have been a great fade with Holiday out. Booker is out for PHX, but this is the last home game of the season for Phx, which is always a good angle, and some of the young guys should be playing hard looking to make a final impression on the season.
Spread in Utah looks a bit high. Yes its a back to back for Sac travelling into Utah, but this stretch of the final three games is their last chance to finish the season above .500. Sac did beat the Jazz in Utah way back in November, albiet the Jazz were playing their first game back after an extended road trip. Utah is actually the hottest team in the leage right now over their last 10 and motivation for a home court 1st round playoff series is still in play... 2 games behind Portland. I would be a bit suprised if the kings weren't able to keep it somewhat close tonight. Maybe 1st half play makes some sense here.
Not sure what I'm doing with Memphis-Dallas tonight. No Conley gives me pause. There is some motivation for Memphis to want to win tonight and Dallas is still incentivised to lose. It is the 1st leg of a home & home. One strategy would be to make an avg size play on Memphis ML and if they don't win tongiht then come back on the Memphis ML on Sunday to win 2x the previous play.
Woah Lakers! Or should I say WTF Clippers? Didn't realize they'd be without Beverly and Jamychael Green tonight. Obviously made a big difference, which was suprising considering the poor effort in Staples last night from this undermanned Lakers squad. Clippers seemed to be in control on this one until late. Maybe they got caught looking ahead to the Warriors game on Sunday? Apologies to anyone who followed the parlay.
Gotta pay attention to the injury report, but if LAC is at full strength, watch out for them on Sunday. They've played GS tough in 5 out of 6 halves of basketball this season.
Gotta pay attention to the injury report, but if LAC is at full strength, watch out for them on Sunday. They've played GS tough in 5 out of 6 halves of basketball this season.
Played this today...
CHA-ML/WAS-ML/MIA-ML Parlay
The only other team I would add in there is Toronto, becuase they are still playing for home court in the finals if they get that far, but I do not like playing against teams in their last home game of the season, which gives even a bad team like Minnesota some motivation to play hard one last time of their home fans.
I would not add Detroit in any parlays today, because as many players as are stitting for Memphis, Detroit has been playing some bad basketball lately and cannot be relied upon in a must-win situation.
CHA-ML/WAS-ML/MIA-ML Parlay
The only other team I would add in there is Toronto, becuase they are still playing for home court in the finals if they get that far, but I do not like playing against teams in their last home game of the season, which gives even a bad team like Minnesota some motivation to play hard one last time of their home fans.
I would not add Detroit in any parlays today, because as many players as are stitting for Memphis, Detroit has been playing some bad basketball lately and cannot be relied upon in a must-win situation.
HOU/UTA
HOU/UTA
I don?t have a pre-game play in this one, but I am targeting the total for live betting. Looking to grab the under on 220 or higher. I am tempted to play the first quarter under, but I will sit back and hope the live betting opportunity shows. As this series goes deeper, the pace should slow down and I will be looking to play on more 1Q and 1H unders. For now, patience is the key.
HOU/UTA
I don?t have a pre-game play in this one, but I am targeting the total for live betting. Looking to grab the under on 220 or higher. I am tempted to play the first quarter under, but I will sit back and hope the live betting opportunity shows. As this series goes deeper, the pace should slow down and I will be looking to play on more 1Q and 1H unders. For now, patience is the key.
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,386
- 450
- 83
- 74
your thoughts on the lousy 76ers in the first Quarter tomorrow after that showing in game 1
gl DZ always enjoy your work...especially now..
gl DZ always enjoy your work...especially now..
OS, I am just seeing this and was working on a more in-depth response based on some 1Q research, but just to provide a some thoughts quickly so I get this in before tip...
The value, I feel, is on Brooklyn tonight. I will first say that the sharp action disagrees with me, having laid 7.5 and 8, while the public action, apparently is on Brooklyn. As some might be inclined to do, I would not lay 3.5 with PHI in the 1st Qtr with the expectation of a reliable bounce-back effort. I have a 3 minus-20 available to me and I wouldn't think of laying that for a second as I am not confident in a strong early response from this Philly team. For me, Brooklyn would be in play at +4 in the 1st Qtr, a number that I do see showing at some outs, but not available to me. The current high line can be attributed to the early action combined with books adjusting for the zig-zag effect (something we all now know has no value in the NBA anymore). This cause and affect can result in some value on the dog in the early stages of the game as 1Q and 1H numbers are usually shaded to the favorite regardless. One thing I have noticed with the 76ers is they are a team that tends to figure it out as they go along (not a marker of great coaching), which they are still doing to some extent having made some big in-season roster changes, while simultaneousely adjusting for long periods of injury/rest for key players. I had a strong hunch that Philly would struggle and Brooklyn could make this a series, hence why I took the Nets at +400 for the series and a wager to win the East at 80-1, intending to use both as an arbitrage position. There is a strong coaching edge to BKN in this series, which will be magnified as the series goes deeper and could materialize in certain 2H situations. There are also some perimiter matchups benefitting the Nets, specifically when going small, that could be nuetralized by the 76ers, but it remains to be seen whether Brett Brown will figure those out (not confident in that). PHI are hampered by the fact that they are not a deep team, while Brooklyn can go 5-6 deep off the bench, providing more tools in Coach Kenny Atkinson's arsenal. I am not sure I see a Sixers win going away, let alone a strong start after a home loss, although a win for the home team certainly makes sense tonight. Brooklyn controlled game 1, pretty much wire to wire, save the first few minutes of the game, despite being outrebounded by a margin of 12, and more particularly 10 to 16 on the offensive boards. I am hedging a portion of my series position, but I do believe that I will be in a better position to do so more when the series moves back to Brooklyn, possibly after game 3. One glaring stat line from game 1 was the three point shooting disparity... 11-26 for the Nets and 3-25 for Philly. While it is reasonable to assume that the 76ers outside shooting to improve, expectations should be tempered by the fact the Brooklyn boasts the BEST OPPONENT Three Point % in the league this season, which I attribute to good coaching. Of note, BKN was 5 of 8 from three in the 1st Qtr, while PHI was 0-8 in the same frame. The strong 3PT shooting performances from Harris and LeVert in game 1 highlight Brooklyn's perimiter matchup advantages, while Russell will continue to shoot with confidence and we should see stronger outisde shooting from Dudley, Carroll and Crabbe. Additionally, PHI guards Simmons, Reddick and McConnell are not well-equipped to deal with the dribble drives some of the more athletic perimiter players BKN has to offer in Russell, LeVert and Dinwiddie. Butler can't guard everyone and Brett Brown needs to avoid those matchups. Finally, aside from his strong showing in game 1, it remains to be seen how Joel Embiid's knee will affect him as the series and playoffs move on. Aside from those long term positions previously mentioned, I am taking a wait and see approach in the series from a game to game standpoint. One thing I wouldn't be suprised to see early is a higher scoring first quarter, but I am not sure there is much value to squeeze out of a 55-55.5 point total. I would have to have seen something closer to 54 or 54.5 to consider a play. If one is really digging and a 55 is available, the OVER could be worth a small play there. ....Not a quick response, I realize now.
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- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,386
- 450
- 83
- 74
DEN/SA
DEN/SA
There has been a huge move on the SA side and ML, which I believe is justified. San Antonio will win one of game 3 or 4, if not both. Personally, I think they will win both at home, but if you wanted to employ a sort of mini-martingale system for this, I would suggest laying the ML in game 3 for an amount you would feel comfortable doubling up on in game 4 if they lose.
SA ML is a play, but personally, I'm waiting to see if it comes down some because the price is probably sitting at its peak currently.
DEN/SA
There has been a huge move on the SA side and ML, which I believe is justified. San Antonio will win one of game 3 or 4, if not both. Personally, I think they will win both at home, but if you wanted to employ a sort of mini-martingale system for this, I would suggest laying the ML in game 3 for an amount you would feel comfortable doubling up on in game 4 if they lose.
SA ML is a play, but personally, I'm waiting to see if it comes down some because the price is probably sitting at its peak currently.
Hey DZ
Interested in your thoughts on Clippers. Is it because they are home? After the blown lead I feel like the Warriors want to prove something. Respect your opinion. Thanks
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Interested in your thoughts on Clippers. Is it because they are home? After the blown lead I feel like the Warriors want to prove something. Respect your opinion. Thanks
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Added....
LAC 1H +5 (-105) 1x ....so 3x total
LAC 1H +210 1x
Jordan, I'm working on a bunch of stuff including other games and MLB, but I have seen your question and will endeavor to get you a more detailed response before tip. Suffice it to say that your reaction is the expected one, which has also influenced the line. However recent history and a fairly large sample size of game 3 road situations with GS has demonstrated that this group doesn't necessarily show any urgency or feel the need make a point, especially in early in games. And why should they? They are the champs and have demonstrated their dominance over and over again. This Clippers team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and I do think it will carry over into the early stages of game 3. Make no mistake, we are getting a ton of value with the Clips early here. Expecting a strong start for the Clips and then we can watch the Warriors take off as they always do in the 3rd qtr of this one.
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I am not making a large San Antonio ML play pre-flop because I don't want to lay quite this much. Rather, I'll wait for in-running to get the majority of my play in on them, hopefully closer to pick'em, and then execute the game 4 strategy if it doesn't work out. I have to agree with the sharper minds that 4.5/5 is too high in this one. Denver shouldn't be a dog of that size in San Antonio, but I'll stick with my strategy for tonight and Saturday.
SAS ML -190 1.5x
