NBA SAT 050909 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[axp59]

Ax Man !

If you don't mind, what are your thoughts on the Cavs total?

:em71:

I'm leaning over the number. I think ATL is the deciding factor here. Can they bring this total over ? At home, there's a chance. No play for me though.

 

[axp59]

GL buddy. I hate being on the other side of you but I am on the Den play.

Damn Joe. I wish you luck nonetheless my friend.

 

[axp59]

Hey JBril.

I like Cavs UN.
- they've impressed me with their smarts and i don't think they want to run w Atl in their building.

- i THINK Atl knows they need to win this w their D (a lot of their big games at home lately have gone UN).

- with the injuries, i don't see Atl giving max effort to push the ball; also see them settling more for jumpers.

- M Williams should play and his length is Atl's best shot at slowing LBJ; also with his injury, he should struggle to shoot his 3's.


I see the air coming out of this game at some point.
- the section of the crowd that was cheering for the Hawks will flip-flop.
- this combined w the fatigue from their injuries should give Atl the excuse they need to checkout.
- Cleve will see this and will not be able to maintain their focus.

... CLANK-CITY (at least i hope)

Once again, i do not do totals, so look to the man (Ax) and his say on this.

BOLTA

Killer, I wish I had a solid read on this but the change of venue coupled with the situation makes it a difficult read for me. ATL is no DET. I believe that this team has a little more heart than DET. That heart may get ripped out tonight but for now, I don't think ATL has given up and may score points of its own. Thus the reason I'm also waiting on a better number for the side. BOL bro

 

[axp59]

HERE IS MY FINAL CARD

DEN +3.5 1 UNIT
CLE -8.5 1 UNIT

2 TEAM PARLAY
DEN ML
CEL -8.5
1 UNIT

2 TEAM 6 pt tsr
DEN +9.5
CLE -2.5
2 UNITS

and for fun a 4 teamer with all sides and totals listed above for 1/2 unit.

I know its a lot of plays...taking some chances tonight as I am up about 18 units on the week.

My value analysis give the DEN ML a lot of value for this matchup. BOL

 

[grindstone]

Here you are the public numbers


ATL/CLEV Bet # 41516

Spread
Clev 78%
Atl 22%


Total
79% Over
21% Under

 

[axp59]

Well, you guys know how this works for me. "knock on wood"...if this holds up, I may call it a night and protect profits...or it could be one of those nights where I get greedy. Since there's absolutely no value in betting the CLE ML on this one...If I play this, I'll give the 8.5.. Be back by 7:30. BOL

 

[gjn23]

this under is in trouble

63 combined free-throws and the third quarter isnt even over yet.....on pace for about 85-90 ft's

what a joke.

 

[gjn23]

and 10 ft's in the last 2:15 (a 66 fking point quarter with about 10 baskets made by each team)

so we now have 73 ft's attempted thru 3q on pace for 100 ft attempts

the nba action, where amazing happens.......they should show a spot featuring refs whistles and guys shooting ft's

 

[axp59]

When did the NBA become not a man's game? Physical play is expected in the playoffs and they use to let the players decide the outcome.

 

[axp59]

Locked CLE -9. 1U

GL players!

 

[grindstone]

Here you are the public numbers


ATL/CLEV Bet # 41516

Spread
Clev 78%
Atl 22%


Total
79% Over
21% Under

Latest numbers

ATL/CLEV


Spread Bet # 46308
Clev 78%
Atl 22%


Total
78% Over
22% Under

Numbers aren't moving all that much. Vegas will either be rich or poor tonight. Really lopsided. Wondering if fading the public is worthwhile??

 

[Eagle123]

Looks little danger in DEN now.
Hope can win

 

[vtfiyaboi]

hey.. all 3 key players are playing for atl... just received word...

 

[Eagle123]

What a shot by Anthony:toast:

 

[gamecocks207]

:00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour

 

[ari]

Nice call on the Nugs Ax - much appreciation. On to Clev.

 

[muhr]

i do live betting sometimes and when the score was 105 103 for the mavs and denver called the timeout, the ml for denver was +730. i kicking myself for not at least putting a small bet on it.

 

[Eagle123]

Another one Ax:mj06: :mj06:

Now show us another blow out James:director:

 

[grindstone]

Congrats AX nice hit with Denv, glad to see you at the window.

:mj06: :00hour :toast:


GL with Clev

 

[PeePee]

Took Den ML from reading your post, why not Cle now.

GL to us.