NBA SUN 032209 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[jlippens]

McHale should have emptied his bench a couple of minutes into the third quarter when his starters had made it a point to show that they simply did not care. The bench scored 37 points in the 4th quarter against OKC backups, who trust me, didn't want to be embarrassed.

Minnesota's starters should be absolutely ashamed.

 

[JCWhy]

I know we didn't have much discussion on this but I just locked this in.

[709] TOTAL o190-110
(CLEVELAND vrs NEW JERSEY)

tail at your own risk...BOL

GL. This is my only full unit play today.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Nothing is jumping out at me for tomorrows card yet, albeit not all of the lines are out yet.

ORL/NYK 213.5 Almost identical to last night
DEN/PHX 237 Does Den play Def., or run w/ the Suns?
PHI/POR 190 Which team(s) show up.

I don't know how it held up lately, but at the opening of season there were (at least) 5 times these home-and-home games showed up, and I remember tracking and playing it by going opposite of whatever the scores were in first game. So the play would be Magic cover and over. It went 5-0 sides and 4-1 totals (or 4-1 and 4-1) (if I remember correctly), because I think I had 3-1 with that system. Then I forgot about it, and you just reminded me

My first thought f?r Suns game (while watching them vs Wiz and listening to the commentary) was if I get it at 235, over no doubt. Neither team plays D and Suns let you score fast and alot cuz they can answer it. Something they had said must have triggered that idea.

172 Rockets :mj06:

 

[t20boss]

I know we didn't have much discussion on this but I just locked this in.

[709] TOTAL o190-110
(CLEVELAND vrs NEW JERSEY)

tail at your own risk...BOL

BOL, Ax...I'm going to wait till halftime on this one.. :mj08:

 

[axp59]

It's going to be one of those days...win one, lose one, win one, lose one and "?"

looks like everything hinges on the GS/NO U

will either be up/down 1/20U. The early ML hit on MIA helps offset some juice. I can't complain for a card where I had no 1U play. Nice day of action though.

 

[PickNPop]

It's going to be one of those days...win one, lose one, win one, lose one and "?"

looks like everything hinges on the GS/NO U

Same here bro! Went a bit bigger on it though so hoping it cashes! kurby

 

[t20boss]

It's going to be one of those days...win one, lose one, win one, lose one and "?"

looks like everything hinges on the GS/NO U

will either be up/down 1/20U. The early ML hit on MIA helps offset some juice. I can't complain for a card where I had no 1U play. Nice day of action though.

This Clev game was meant to go under, Ax. Like you said, it's only 1/20u play, so a little pocket change. Really leaning towards Sac +5 in a bit...again, just a gut feeling. But that gut cost me w/Detroit earlier... :0corn

 

[axp59]

Same here bro! Went a bit bigger on it though so hoping it cashes! kurby

It's early but looks like NO wants to dictate the pace...I'm liking what I see. :walk:

 

[chrisb02us]

It's going to be one of those days...win one, lose one, win one, lose one and "?"

looks like everything hinges on the GS/NO U

will either be up/down 1/20U. The early ML hit on MIA helps offset some juice. I can't complain for a card where I had no 1U play. Nice day of action though.

You see that defensive/slow game down in Nawlins? That under is looking good early on.

 

[axp59]

This Clev game was meant to go under, Ax. Like you said, it's only 1/20u play, so a little pocket change. Really leaning towards Sac +5 in a bit...again, just a gut feeling. But that gut cost me w/Detroit earlier... :0corn

Now you tell me boss!

I'm also looking to pull the trigger on this one. It's an action Sunday. So SAC +5 :hitit:

 

[axp59]

You see that defensive/slow game down in Nawlins? That under is looking good early on.

Assuming they maintain this pace and I cash...looking for some action on Sac town. Got a lean?

 

[PickNPop]

2 pts in the 2nd Q for GS after a full 5 minutes.

:142smilie :scared

 

[chrisb02us]

Not much history to go off of for the PHI/SAC game later tonight. These teams met up only once this season in Philly at the beginning of the season. Philly beat Sacramento 125-91 as an 11.5 favorite. 8 different players on that Philly squad scored in double digits, and if you look at the qtr breakdowns, Philly outscored Sacramento by an average of 8.5 points/qtr. Keep in mind, that was only Sacramento's 4th game of the season, so they were still kicking the rust off.

The question to ask yourself is, what has changed amongst these 2 teams since then, and why is this line only at Philly favored by 5? Even taking into consideration that this game is in Sacramento, Philly should still be favored by 8-10 in my opinion, yet the line has sat at 5 most of the day, and it appears that roughly 70% of the of the public is on Philly. Yet no line movement, hummmmmmm.
I think you guys are on the right track here w/ backing Sacramento with the +5.

 

[PickNPop]

PNP -

Hope I didn't dissuade you and you got some action in on the Liverpool game as you had intended to do so...

I clearly and heavily UNDERestimated Laursen's absence (even though I alluded to him last night); 3 goals thus far:

a) sloppy defending from a corner - Laursen usually gets his head in to clear.
b) poor defense enabling Riera to get a kick off a volley from Reina.
c) Reo-Coker, who's NOT a defender, clumsily taking Riera down.

Unlikely contributions from Kuyt and Riera (whom I've chastised b/c of the way he gives the ball away easily: see Real and Man U game) and it has all the makings of another outright Liverpool victory.

Bodes well for Wenger and company as well as Villa continue to fade; O'Neill will need to purchase well this summer and bring in players he trusts and will play as opposed to wearing down his starting 11.

Major kudos to you - definitely welcome your insights next time EPL matches come 'round.

I did place a standard soccer unit on the ML, but I won't lie, you made some good points and stopped me from taking Liverpool -1. Oh well, shit happens. :shrug:

Must say that probably no one expected a 5-0 drubbing! From what I saw in the first 40 mins, Villa had some good spells but couldn't capitalize and their defensive frailties as you outlined in your post did them in.

Hope you enjoyed every minute of that as a Reds supporter though! Title race is truly back on again.

 

[axp59]

Chris, I think that's the correct call on this one. I needed to hear that. Of course you know I've dug deep into this already but a couple of extra sets of eyes never hurts. Thanks Bro.

 

[ebxchange]

hi AX, the Sac game opinion please

hi AX, the Sac game opinion please

do you really think this will be the only over pick of the day ? and does SAC+5 looks good ?

thanks

 

[t20boss]

why is this line only at Philly favored by 5? Even taking into consideration that this game is in Sacramento, Philly should still be favored by 8-10 in my opinion, yet the line has sat at 5 most of the day, and it appears that roughly 70% of the of the public is on Philly. Yet no line movement, hummmmmmm.
I think you guys are on the right track here w/ backing Sacramento with the +5.[/QUOTE]

Exactly, Chris....my feeling as well. Let's get this, fellas :SIB

 

[chrisb02us]

Chris, I think that's the correct call on this one. I needed to hear that. Of course you know I've dug deep into this already but a couple of extra sets of eyes never hurts. Thanks Bro.

Anytime Ax. I couldn't help myself, and made a really small wager on my Cavs (-6), as I couldn't get away from it. After diving into this PHI/SAC game just now, I am going to throw my winnings from that really small Cavs play into it, provided it hits of course. I figure I am having a really good day thus far, and why not let it run its course for the night.

 

[ebxchange]

hi chrisb02us, do you think the over looks good on the sac gamer too ?

thanks much !

 

[chrisb02us]

On a side note, it's so refreshing to be in a forum where all posts, or at least the bulk of them, are focused on the games, and not a thread of childish banter. I almost got a little wierded out on here earlier when I didn't see anyone ripping another for a pick or opinion without any reasoning. I think most of you know what I am talking about. :mj07:

I really like this place, and look forward to closing out the bball season with you.