NBA SUN 032209 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[barts185]

dump truck is backing up someone please stop with a reason this line is so far off.

This was one of the games I highlighted ProGuy on page 1 somewhere. I like this more than others but as I also pointed out, this has very minimum value for me. Given today's card, this could be my personal POD. I just do not trust NOH to dictate this game and keep it under. Maybe just an action bet on this as the number holds steady @215

I don't know what team is out there on the court sometimes wearing the Hornets uniforms...that's why.

I -VERY MUCH- agree with this last comment. A lot of times this year, I think I have a feel for NOR, only to wonder who that is on the court playing the game.


Having said that, other reasons to like the under.


NOR has strong 1 year, and 2 year under trend when seeking revenge.


NOR o/u 14-43 revenging a loss last 2 seasons. Average score 187.7

This season o/u trends:

revenging a loss 6-14, revenging a home loss 2-5 (GSW beat them 91-86 in NOR on 01/30)

That game on 01/30 is the only one I see this year where a NOR game had a total of 210 or higher. It ended 177. There have been a few in the 200+ category, I show them as 3-4.

vs. the Pacific division, o/u is 8-5, but the average score was 198.4, a far cry from today's total.

As a home favorite, 14-20, average score 187.9


For GSW

I show them as 7-17 o/u with totals of 210 or higher when they are on the road this year.

As away dogs, 11-16 with an average of 214.4


Really, the only thing that looks over is the last 5 games, where GSW is scoring 120.2 and giving up 121.8



And yet, I'm still not comfortable with the under.

 

[burnetto57]

burnett057

burnett057

Agreed, I only have action on one today and it's the over on Marq/Mizzou.

GL today KB

I know you've been all over this dance...Are you turning a profit pal...just curious.

Yes re: goin 1 U/each and winning all 4 Over y'day and 1 Unit on OK (total 5 U Y'day - was a bad biy action-wise - but kept playin w/ house $).

What helped was seeing so many folks on Unders(from the old site) and watchin them flame out one by one - so as the day went on - and actually watchin the games is how I came up w/rationale I described above. So that's when I started hiitten the Overs. Last: note the Big 12 has been major money maker of the tourney - may not go beyond today but been fun ride - have road them for 4 Us so far.

As I watch my 1st over .5 U AZ St/Cuse. always a good sign when 23-15 w 8 mins left 1H on total of 138
- if game is close at 1H - even better - but, like I said even if team down by 10-15 - they will fight - seem to come outta he 'H/time gate' firin - we'll see? (I've been lookin for total of 60 min @ end of 1H - almost guarntee of 138 game cover)? It's alotta fun to enjoy the games and make several trips to the window.

Go Cleve St. Crush AZ - this, as usual, will be best game for me - to watch.

:00hour :violin:

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Can't blame ya Joe. You may have the POD. Enjoy the day off pal:0corn

I was talking about totals!

my plays:

Nets +7,5

Kings +5,5

Pistons -1

rolling with the home teams!

BOL :director:
Joe

 

[axp59]

From my friend Chris

From my friend Chris

GS/NOH U215

Seriously, am I crazy for looking to play a Golden St game under the total??? At first glance, I thought so, but after digging deeper, I think there's great value to be found in this under play. Last time these teamns met up (1/30/09), the Warriors came out ahead 91-87, totaling 178. The last 5 road games for GS, they managed to score 106, 120, 91, 88, & 118. The 3 games going over the century mark were at Lakers, Milwaukee, & Minnesota. Neither Milw nor Minn plays much Defense, nor did either team set the pace for those games. The Lakers play defense, but not against running teams, hence the 100+ points allowed to the warriors. The 2 games that stayed under the century mark were at Detroit & Chicago, both teams who like to set the pace for their games, and that's what I see New Orleans doing tonight. The Hornets should set the pace for this game, and establish a defensive presence that will slow this one down. If they don't, and let GS set a fast run and gun pace, there's no way NO will be able to keep up with them. There's my 2 cents. As always, your feedback is greatly appreciated. Thanks Ax.

 

[axp59]

And yet, I'm still not comfortable with the under.

Boy, you said it brother!

 

[burnetto57]

Awesome pace on this one - Cuse will win - but Over lookin great. These guy are scorin early in shot clock.

 

[axp59]

Hello everyone,

Just wanted to chime in with a good job and a pat on the back. I have been lurking and this is great. I will hopefully post some thoughts the next couple days.

:em71:

wow gambleholic, I was starting to wonder if I'd ever see you again. Nice to have you pal

 

[burnetto57]

burnetto57

burnetto57

GS/NOH U215

Seriously, am I crazy for looking to play a Golden St game under the total??? At first glance, I thought so, but after digging deeper, I think there's great value to be found in this under play. Last time these teamns met up (1/30/09), the Warriors came out ahead 91-87, totaling 178. The last 5 road games for GS, they managed to score 106, 120, 91, 88, & 118. The 3 games going over the century mark were at Lakers, Milwaukee, & Minnesota. Neither Milw nor Minn plays much Defense, nor did either team set the pace for those games. The Lakers play defense, but not against running teams, hence the 100+ points allowed to the warriors. The 2 games that stayed under the century mark were at Detroit & Chicago, both teams who like to set the pace for their games, and that's what I see New Orleans doing tonight. The Hornets should set the pace for this game, and establish a defensive presence that will slow this one down. If they don't, and let GS set a fast run and gun pace, there's no way NO will be able to keep up with them. There's my 2 cents. As always, your feedback is greatly appreciated. Thanks Ax.

IMHO - Really good cappin on this one:toast:

 

[axp59]

It's alotta fun to enjoy the games and make several trips to the window.

[

Keep it hot KB. always better getting than giving that envelope!

 

[axp59]

Pistons -1

you are a brave soul.

aren't you :scared of how they are on Sundays and especially at home?

BOL on your other action Joe. I'm on the other side of this one with the MIA ML.

 

[axp59]

IMHO - Really good cappin on this one:toast:

I've seen Chris' work and he's done his homework.

 

[LFTNUT]

i like dat play very much

 

[Joe_Vienna]

you are a brave soul.

aren't you :scared of how they are on Sundays and especially at home?

BOL on your other action Joe. I'm on the other side of this one with the MIA ML.

time for change :SIB
believe me :mj06:

GL soldier #1 :director:

 

[axp59]

My card today...all action plays for 1/20U...no full 1U plays for me.

[703] MIAMI +115
[705] TOTAL o199?-110
(OKLAHOMA CITY vrs MINNESOTA)
[712] TOTAL u215-110
(GOLDEN STATE vrs NEW ORLEANS)

[727] TOTAL o149-110
(MARQUETTE vrs MISSOURI)

BOLTA!

 

[easterntimezone]

PNP -

Hope I didn't dissuade you and you got some action in on the Liverpool game as you had intended to do so...

I clearly and heavily UNDERestimated Laursen's absence (even though I alluded to him last night); 3 goals thus far:

a) sloppy defending from a corner - Laursen usually gets his head in to clear.
b) poor defense enabling Riera to get a kick off a volley from Reina.
c) Reo-Coker, who's NOT a defender, clumsily taking Riera down.

Unlikely contributions from Kuyt and Riera (whom I've chastised b/c of the way he gives the ball away easily: see Real and Man U game) and it has all the makings of another outright Liverpool victory.

Bodes well for Wenger and company as well as Villa continue to fade; O'Neill will need to purchase well this summer and bring in players he trusts and will play as opposed to wearing down his starting 11.

Major kudos to you - definitely welcome your insights next time EPL matches come 'round.

 

[jlippens]

Axp: I actually like the GS UNDER as well-- GS doesn't put up the same numbers on the road at all, and NO is one of the slowest teams in the league. You haven't locked into this (or any games) for a full unit, correct? Are you still of the opinion that there doesn't seem to be anything worth a full unit on the board?

 

[LookKaPyPy]

GS/NOH U215

I wasn't impressed by the way NO played, they've gotten cold without Peja and just 4th q meltdowns that let them ride out the ats. I really want GSW to take this one, as I like their crew, but Don Nelson is pissing me off with his antics, really hard to cap that stuff.
NO got it going vs 2 poor teams (Wiz & Grizz) late in the game, but I gotta admit I was a bit impressed when I saw them hustle on the transition and fast breaks vs Grizz. With crowd tearing it up, they looked wild. GSW might have such tendencies, especially with Nelson and the way he's coaching, so there might be a surge in points later on.
Still, should be a sound bet given the pace, and scoring issues GSW has away.


One I'm looking through now is USC u129.5...seems like it can be a grinder, and the public looks like its liking over.

 

[axp59]

Axp: I actually like the GS UNDER as well-- GS doesn't put up the same numbers on the road at all, and NO is one of the slowest teams in the league. You haven't locked into this (or any games) for a full unit, correct? Are you still of the opinion that there doesn't seem to be anything worth a full unit on the board?

Correct jlipp, When I go 1U, I already know it from the previous night. I'm not feeling confident with what we are being offered today. I live for a better card Monday. GL sir.

 

[easterntimezone]

GS/NOH U215

Seriously, am I crazy for looking to play a Golden St game under the total??? At first glance, I thought so, but after digging deeper, I think there's great value to be found in this under play. Last time these teamns met up (1/30/09), the Warriors came out ahead 91-87, totaling 178. The last 5 road games for GS, they managed to score 106, 120, 91, 88, & 118. The 3 games going over the century mark were at Lakers, Milwaukee, & Minnesota. Neither Milw nor Minn plays much Defense, nor did either team set the pace for those games. The Lakers play defense, but not against running teams, hence the 100+ points allowed to the warriors. The 2 games that stayed under the century mark were at Detroit & Chicago, both teams who like to set the pace for their games, and that's what I see New Orleans doing tonight. The Hornets should set the pace for this game, and establish a defensive presence that will slow this one down. If they don't, and let GS set a fast run and gun pace, there's no way NO will be able to keep up with them. There's my 2 cents. As always, your feedback is greatly appreciated. Thanks Ax.

Ax -

Although I don't have a great sense for this game b/c of Nelson's unpredicatable subsitution/rest patterns, New Orleans's only chance to win this is to keep it close as you articulated - that strategy is most dependent on your point and no better point in the game today than Paul. Warriors like to force the issue, but usually fall prey to whatever tempo other side favors (Suns want to run, Warriors run - Spurs favor a slow pace, Warriors start to crawl [for them, that is]).

 

[burnetto57]

burnetto57

burnetto57

:00hour :00hour

Keep it hot KB. always better getting than giving that envelope!

Great start +13 total @ 1H w abt 10 point lead - would not surprise me if this goes Over 138 by quiet a bit. Plan to bet Overs all day w/ house $ until I get an under (well may be an xception or 2 - still cappin them)

Joe already has Over on 2H - believe it's around 74 - wudn't surprise me - but I'll just sit back - and watch it 'rain' and wait for the window to open:mj06: