I got the Lakers @ -11 and I like that play alot...I think they will come out fired up and try to continue to take to the Jazz early and build a solid lead. I think they really want to get in their heads and let the Jazz know they cannot keep up with them on their home floor. Jazz are not a very good road team either...good luck today guys!
NBA SUN 041909 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
still shopping, I hate early weekend games as I can barely recover from last night's drinking by the time games start.
So far I am leaning NOH/DEN under and MIA +5. Also, put some money on Miami winning the series just because Lebron-Wade matchup is Stern's wet dream and I am thinking Wade will average around 62 free throws a game.
Locked in POD...
NEW ORLEANS-DENVER UNDER 194.5
Both teams are ranked top 10 in defensive efficiency and look for them to clamp up on defense even better during the playoffs. New Orleans averaged 77.6 FGA during the season but only averaged 70.6 in games against Denver. Similarly, Denver averaged 79.4 FGA during the season but only averaged 75.7 FGA in games against Nawlins. This tells me games between these two teams are played closer to Nawlins' slow tempo rather than Denver's high pace. Add that playoff games are typically played in slower tempo than regular season games(despite what happened yesterday), under looks good to me here.
I like player matchups too, Billups struggled against Paul during season series averaging 36% from the field and Posey should give some problems to Carmelo. Paul had 1 good 2 mediocre games against Denver and big&strong point guards like Billups and Deron Williams usually give him some trouble. JR Smith should cause some matchup problems as well.
Best of luck
-Turc
NEW ORLEANS-DENVER UNDER 194.5
Both teams are ranked top 10 in defensive efficiency and look for them to clamp up on defense even better during the playoffs. New Orleans averaged 77.6 FGA during the season but only averaged 70.6 in games against Denver. Similarly, Denver averaged 79.4 FGA during the season but only averaged 75.7 FGA in games against Nawlins. This tells me games between these two teams are played closer to Nawlins' slow tempo rather than Denver's high pace. Add that playoff games are typically played in slower tempo than regular season games(despite what happened yesterday), under looks good to me here.
I like player matchups too, Billups struggled against Paul during season series averaging 36% from the field and Posey should give some problems to Carmelo. Paul had 1 good 2 mediocre games against Denver and big&strong point guards like Billups and Deron Williams usually give him some trouble. JR Smith should cause some matchup problems as well.
Best of luck
-Turc
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Hey Ax and Friends. The weekend is crazy for me
A quick opinion I think the Lakers go Over, depite most of the free world agreeing.
I really love the Nuggets and the Magic. May wait til game two, but?
I like Atlanta Under but unsure.
BOLTA
47
47
Hey Ax and Friends. The weekend is crazy for me
A quick opinion I think the Lakers go Over, depite most of the free world agreeing.
I really love the Nuggets and the Magic. May wait til game two, but?
I like Atlanta Under but unsure.
BOLTA
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- Mar 18, 2009
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ax, i agree with the waiting theory, it's always best to find some trends especially in a 7 game series, unless of course, if you feel 100%. I can see valid reasoning for a no/den under as well as over. lakers & orl totals i can't touch yet. i like the under in mia/atl , but a 90-90 game at the end can easily go over w/free throws or o.t.
i'm hopeing the dogs had their day ..
den-6
mco-9
note: i really think the lakers are playing cleveland today .they are gonna want to send the same message that clev sent them yesterday. Should be a blowout , but backdoor cover always possible.
best of luck ax, and to all
thanx for all the great insight:clap: :clap: :00x15
i'm hopeing the dogs had their day ..
den-6
mco-9
note: i really think the lakers are playing cleveland today .they are gonna want to send the same message that clev sent them yesterday. Should be a blowout , but backdoor cover always possible.
best of luck ax, and to all
thanx for all the great insight:clap: :clap: :00x15
That's solid analysis Turc but I expected nothing less. I may just tail you on this. My initial lean on the over in this game is shot. I think this may be the right side. Thank you
Some stuff to back up Den -6...
-First meeting, Denver on a b2b, NO with 2 days rest, 101-105 NO.
-Second meeting, both terms were on a b2b, Denver won 105-101.
-Third meeting, Denver on a b2b, NO with 1 day rest, 81-94 NO. (no Melo)
-Fourth meeting, Denver with 1 day rest, NO with 2 days rest, Denver won 101-88.
So the only time NO has beaten Denver this season, is when they were rested and Denver was not. Peja played a big part in the 2nd win and his scoring helped in the 1st. If he really isn't healthy or playing well, I don't give NO much chance at all. True most of the games came without Chandler, but he is still supposedly hurting too.
Also, Nuggets are deep, with a lot of playoff experience and 2 guys that have been to the finals twice each. Their bench is vastly superior;
Nuggets bench is
#3 in points
#1 in rebounds
#1 in assists
#3 in steals
#1 in blocks
Nawlins bench is:
#30 in points
#25 in rebounds
#28 in assists
#23 in steals
#25 in blocks
Just food for thought...
-First meeting, Denver on a b2b, NO with 2 days rest, 101-105 NO.
-Second meeting, both terms were on a b2b, Denver won 105-101.
-Third meeting, Denver on a b2b, NO with 1 day rest, 81-94 NO. (no Melo)
-Fourth meeting, Denver with 1 day rest, NO with 2 days rest, Denver won 101-88.
So the only time NO has beaten Denver this season, is when they were rested and Denver was not. Peja played a big part in the 2nd win and his scoring helped in the 1st. If he really isn't healthy or playing well, I don't give NO much chance at all. True most of the games came without Chandler, but he is still supposedly hurting too.
Also, Nuggets are deep, with a lot of playoff experience and 2 guys that have been to the finals twice each. Their bench is vastly superior;
Nuggets bench is
#3 in points
#1 in rebounds
#1 in assists
#3 in steals
#1 in blocks
Nawlins bench is:
#30 in points
#25 in rebounds
#28 in assists
#23 in steals
#25 in blocks
Just food for thought...
When I capped bench points for NOH/DEN, I found that I was looking a almost a DD difference just in points. It's also very telling how each are coming into the playoffs. The difference is almost 20 points and 20 mins. This could be a blowout early in the 2Q. Well, I hoping and it's my best guess.
- Mar 18, 2009
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Yeah, Turc...that popcorn is bad for you
My girlfriend STRONGLY disagrees with you and would like Turc to pass the popcorn over.........
:0corn :0corn :0corn :0corn :0corn :0corn :0corn :0corn
Sticking with just the side tonight axpiota????
Nice play guys. glad i stuck with the one play although i should have gone with my original instinct but 3-1 in the playoffs so turning a little profit.
