NBA SUN 051709 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[axp59]

So we have ourselves a couple of situations. Anybody else think, that at even -2.5, BOS is still a steal? Funny how it opened at -1. I'm going to let this sit for now.
As for the 185.5 total. This is the lowest number at home these playoffs. There's good reason for this. DPA and DPS quickly declining for consecutive games. 2 games ago, they both fell short by 5 or more. Last game, both were at least 15 short. DPA & DPS are indicators of how far off teams allow and score from the norm. Once teams develop a pattern like this, where they start to slow things down on both ends, they tend to keep it that way.
Is this by design? I mean, is this happening because both defenses are tightening up. I just don't see it that way. It looks to me like both teams have been sucking with their perimeter game. We know both of these teams can each score in the hundreds. Will ORL again feed the ball inside and keep the game in the paint or do they make Howard the point-post and have him kick out once the double develops.
There's a lot to cover but after 6 games, we should all know the answer. The best part of this is that the books have already capped both games for us. We just need to pick a side. That can't be too hard, can it?

BOL

 

[noropin]

Now that's funny, don't care who you are!! lol

 

[greggraffin]

There's a lot to cover but after 6 games, we should all know the answer. The best part of this is that the books have already capped both games for us. We just need to pick a side. That can't be too hard, can it?

BOL

i dont get it, does that mean you are going over or under?

 

[barts185]

I never saw a 1, but laid 2 as quick as I could. I think there is value at 2.5 and that your team advances.

Good Luck,
Bart

 

[Truckin']

So we have ourselves a couple of situations. Anybody else think, that at even -2.5, BOS is still a steal? Funny how it opened at -1. I'm going to let this sit for now.
As for the 185.5 total. This is the lowest number at home these playoffs. There's good reason for this. DPA and DPS quickly declining for consecutive games. 2 games ago, they both fell short by 5 or more. Last game, both were at least 15 short. DPA & DPS are indicators of how far off teams allow and score from the norm. Once teams develop a pattern like this, where they start to slow things down on both ends, they tend to keep it that way.
Is this by design? I mean, is this happening because both defenses are tightening up. I just don't see it that way. It looks to me like both teams have been sucking with their perimeter game. We know both of these teams can each score in the hundreds. Will ORL again feed the ball inside and keep the game in the paint or do they make Howard the point-post and have him kick out once the double develops.
There's a lot to cover but after 6 games, we should all know the answer. The best part of this is that the books have already capped both games for us. We just need to pick a side. That can't be too hard, can it?

BOL

Nice to see you back
I hope you had a great time with the family!
My parents were here from Fla for 2 weeks they left this AM. Its nice to spend time with the family and take a break from the RAT RACE we live.

I Have not looked at games yet but have to lean big towards home teams

BOL

 

[Truckin']

:topic:

If possible any thoughts in Baseball tonight on

Seatlle
Cinncy

I like both Alot

THX

 

[Eagle123]

Welcome Back Ax

Lets make some profit this Sunday:director:

 

[axp59]

i dont get it, does that mean you are going over or under?

g, I haven't picked a side yet...just opening this thread up for discussion. Still doing some reading myself.

 

[axp59]

I never saw a 1, but laid 2 as quick as I could. I think there is value at 2.5 and that your team advances.

Good Luck,
Bart

Man, I hope so. I need some unbiased views of this game. I can't be trusted to cap the C's in this situation. :nono: HOMER!

 

[axp59]

Nice to see you back
I hope you had a great time with the family!
My parents were here from Fla for 2 weeks they left this AM. Its nice to spend time with the family and take a break from the RAT RACE we live.

I Have not looked at games yet but have to lean big towards home teams

BOL

Thanks pal. They left this morning but I got a chance to pick my dad's brain a bit. He's been doing NBA for 40+ years. Between the bitching about the sport's current makeup, there's some good intel.

 

[axp59]

:topic:

If possible any thoughts in Baseball tonight on

Seatlle
Cinncy

I like both Alot

THX

Already played CIN -125 and I had to play BOS. Tough to see this team lose 4 straight and Beckett has to show up one of these days. Not advocating the 'due' theory. The value for BOS on the game is about $12 per $100. BOL

 

[axp59]

Welcome Back Ax

Lets make some profit this Sunday:director:

祝我們好運

 

[Eagle123]

祝我們好運

HAHA

BOL to us:00hour

 

[PickNPop]

Well the TNT broadcast mentioned several times how your C's are 17-3 in Game 7s at home and 32-0 leading after Game 5...

Welcome back from your (sorely missed) absence, ax!

 

[easterntimezone]

Man, I hope so. I need some unbiased views of this game. I can't be trusted to cap the C's in this situation. :nono: HOMER!

Out of all the teams left in the playoff hunt, Orlando strikes me as the lone pretenders - mentioned this to you during the season and still am of firm belief w/ regards to this... Boston has been gutting it out - but not in panicked, deer-in-headlights state when it isn't going their way; the Magic seem to be the more fragile unit and when their jumpers aren't falling and/or defenders close out on 'em, it creates a myriad of headaches for Van Gundy especially in light of Howard's free throw shooting woes.

Wrote a writeup for Ax either the last game or second-to-last game b/w these 2 teams during the season - took Boston to cover the +2 (or so) then...

Celtics did (albeit in a loss)...

Expecting 'em to cover and advance this time 'round...

And (hopefully) send Goukas to an early summer vacation instead of gloating over how well constructed and ascendant the Magic are (they WOULD be if they weren't so overaddicted to the perimeter - it worked in college for Pitino at Kentucky and Providence only b/c he harnessed an adamant full court press in tandem - he had witnessed firsthand sitting on the U-Mass bench during Dr. J's run at that school when an undermanned and athletically-challenged [and major underdog] Fordham team [coached by Digger Phelps] ran a hellish 94 foot press the entire game and won by 8 or 9 points - Van Gundy doesn't have the horses to do the same for an entire NBA game nor do professional players have a penchant to exert that sort of energy).

 

[axp59]

Well the TNT broadcast mentioned several times how your C's are 17-3 in Game 7s at home and 32-0 leading after Game 5...

Welcome back from your (sorely missed) absence, ax!

Thanks PnP. But like Stan has pointed out, there's a first time for everything.

 

[axp59]

Thanks ETZ, that's a blast from the past. I'd like to take this down to the most basic breakdown. Starters and bench. The BOS bench has to come up big on this one. How has their performance been? Serviceable? Only because they've had to. They only used an 8 man rotation last game. that concerns me.

 

[axp59]

I think the HOU ML is a MUST play. Dig out some change from you pants and put it on the ML. The way this series has gone, who knows. The value at the current # +1034 is about $82 per $100. Let's say you lay $10 each on the HOU ML and this game is played 100 times. For the expected 16 Ws HOU pulls out, you can eat the 84 losses and still be up $825. What's $10 to win $103. BOL

 

[Truckin']

Already played CIN -125 and I had to play BOS. Tough to see this team lose 4 straight and Beckett has to show up one of these days. Not advocating the 'due' theory. The value for BOS on the game is about $12 per $100. BOL

Thanks

BOL

 

[grindstone]

Man, I hope so. I need some unbiased views of this game. I can't be trusted to cap the C's in this situation. :nono: HOMER!

Hey Ax nice to have you back. Always nice to see family.



What I'm asking myself will Orlando have another stellar night by D Howard??Rondo who had 19 points 4 steals 6 assists and 16 rebounds. Dwight Howard retaliated back with his 22 points 23 rebounds. Howard was effective and went to have his share of FT. He went 5-12 FT shooting.Maybe Shaq can do a better job at the line than Howard!!! Let's not forget one thing Boston has been going through this since last year. The C's can overcome pressure, because they have been there before . Meantime if Orlando wants to come up with this win, they need the same Howard who had a 20-20 night and a better performance from Hedo Turkoglu who finised 3-13 and had 7 points. Hedo attempted 5 3ptrs and only making 1. Even though they won the game , Hedo needs a better performance since this is on the Road. What concerns me is the this line Bost - 2.5 ??? I would of thought maybe - 4, - 5 for the defending champs but vegas gives us this short line.Right now 72 % of the public are taking the C's, therefore I will have to watch this line to see if the public will pound it even more, because this seems like a gift to me.