NBA SUN 051709 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[ari]

I'm contributing to the pounding. Boston at home, to close out a series, against a team that oh to prone to folding when they get the slightest bit of a surge from their opponent....I love the Cs here. GL gentlemen.

 

[easterntimezone]

I think the HOU ML is a MUST play. Dig out some change from you pants and put it on the ML. The way this series has gone, who knows. The value at the current # +1034 is about $82 per $100. Let's say you lay $10 each on the HOU ML and this game is played 100 times. For the expected 16 Ws HOU pulls out, you can eat the 84 losses and still be up $825. What's $10 to win $103. BOL

:Yep:

Will share some musings concerning this version of the Lakers if this result comes to pass; apologies in advance to JBrill, but any personal (for me) sentimental attachment to Showtime concerns Magic, Kareem, Mychal Thompson, AC Green, Byron Scott, Kurt Rambis, Michael Cooper et al - who took care of business first and foremost night in, night out; for all of their glamor, they also paid you back handsomely for the price of admission w/ a consistent game-by-game honest effort. Unlike...

 

[axp59]

Hey Ax nice to have you back. Always nice to see family.



What I'm asking myself will Orlando have another stellar night by D Howard??Rondo who had 19 points 4 steals 6 assists and 16 rebounds. Dwight Howard retaliated back with his 22 points 23 rebounds. Howard was effective and went to have his share of FT. He went 5-12 FT shooting.Maybe Shaq can do a better job at the line than Howard!!! Let's not forget one thing Boston has been going through this since last year. The C's can overcome pressure, because they have been there before . Meantime if Orlando wants to come up with this win, they need the same Howard who had a 20-20 night and a better performance from Hedo Turkoglu who finised 3-13 and had 7 points. Hedo attempted 5 3ptrs and only making 1. Even though they won the game , Hedo needs a better performance since this is on the Road. What concerns me is the this line Bost - 2.5 ??? I would of thought maybe - 4, - 5 for the defending champs but vegas gives us this short line.Right now 72 % of the public are taking the C's, therefore I will have to watch this line to see if the public will pound it even more, because this seems like a gift to me.

Thanks GS. I've read and studied this game most of the day. I've even contacted a friend who's a sportswriter here. Like I said, the books capped this at -1. The money is saying they are wrong. Make no mistake, ORL will come to play. I'm thinking they jump on BOS early and be content with trading baskets the rest of the way. Can BOS do anything about it later in the game? They've shown they can and I have no doubt they will.

 

[Eagle123]

Sounds like you are leaning on two doggies on today games

Am I right Ax?

 

[axp59]

Sounds like you are leaning on two doggies on today games

Am I right Ax?

the numbers have been stable so unless you got in early, no need to rush anything. I want to see what tomorrow brings.

 

[Eagle123]

got it Ax, go out for lunch with family now

Talk to you tonight

 

[easterntimezone]

Thanks GS. I've read and studied this game most of the day. I've even contacted a friend who's a sportswriter here. Like I said, the books capped this at -1. The money is saying they are wrong. Make no mistake, ORL will come to play. I'm thinking they jump on BOS early and be content with trading baskets the rest of the way. Can BOS do anything about it later in the game? They've shown they can and I have no doubt they will.

Wrote this earlier, but refrained from posting as wanted to stew over it a while and see if there was anything personally subjective obscuring an objective assessment of the contest; nothing revised since so here goes...

Will Ray Allen finally shoot better than he has the entire series? The mere fact that he's been in a slump reduces his ability to act as a decoy (let alone be a primary scorer), which the Celtics have employed on occasion to free up others on the floor. B/c he's dependent on cuts, screens, picks, defenders don't have to rely on help defense as much when they know that he's misfiring.

Not expecting a blowout on either side, but a VERY tight contest - the 2 to 2.5 range makes sense in light of this...

Are both teams gassed? Definitely, Boston especially so b/c of their last series against Chicago which went to 7, but that in concert w/ last year's run to the championship should stand them in good stead in a winner-take-all single game.

IF the Celts should advance to meet the Cavs, would be far more cautious in championing their chances; they've sent home a set of young turks already in the Bulls - although a mix of veterans and youngsters, this configuration may not have an extended shelf-life beyond what initially was projected when the big 3 were thrown together - and possibly even less now given the toll heavy minutes have exacted from both Allen and Pierce w/ a sketchy Garnett knee in there for good measure. There's a thin line b/w pride and arrogance - this Celtics team is running on the former and definitely not the latter as exhibited by a certain team out West that was originally situated in Minneapolis.

 

[Crockie]

Hi Ax :toast:

Today will be my biggest bet of my life on the Celtics. I liked them @ game 5 and made great cash on it and I like them today. I'm so nervous :mj08:

 

[grindstone]

Here are some Sunday's public #'s


Orl/Bost Bet# 13245

Spread
Bost 72%
Orl 28%

Total
56% Over
44% Under



LAL/Hous Bet# 13259

Spread
56% Hou
44%LAL

Total
71% Over
29% Under

 

[joe_shmoe]

Going against the grain but I think ORL pulls out a game 7 win. I never saw the line at -1 at my book but even at -2.5 I was thinking that something was fishy.

Go back to a few games... the odds to win the series favored ORL when the series was tied at 2-2. The books knew that ORL would have to win one at Boston but that's how they lined it even after momentum had swung to Boston with Big Baby's game winning shot.

I think ORL is going to jump out to a lead and unlike the other night, they will find a way to hold on. I agree with previous posters that Boston has veterans and has shown they are a gutsy team. But you have to ask yourself, what are they really playing for?... They won a championship last year. Their best player is out. Will anyone blame them if they get bounced in game 7 of this series? Think about what's waiting for them if they do win... A potential ass-kicking by the Cavs.

Just my two cents. I know it won't be a popular opinion.

 

[t20boss]

Going against the grain but I think ORL pulls out a game 7 win. I never saw the line at -1 at my book but even at -2.5 I was thinking that something was fishy.

Go back to a few games... the odds to win the series favored ORL when the series was tied at 2-2. The books knew that ORL would have to win one at Boston but that's how they lined it even after momentum had swung to Boston with Big Baby's game winning shot.

I think ORL is going to jump out to a lead and unlike the other night, they will find a way to hold on. I agree with previous posters that Boston has veterans and has shown they are a gutsy team. But you have to ask yourself, what are they really playing for?... They won a championship last year. Their best player is out. Will anyone blame them if they get bounced in game 7 of this series? Think about what's waiting for them if they do win... A potential ass-kicking by the Cavs.

Just my two cents. I know it won't be a popular opinion.

I agree w/ya Joe. The comeback that the C's did the other night was great, and they do have the heart of a champion. But Orlando will not allow that to happen again. Dwight was on the bench w/foul trouble, and everything set up well for the C's to make a run, which they did. Being totally objective, I have a hard time not taking the dog in this one...just my 2 cents as well, FWIW....

 

[Slicer]

Accuscore:

Magic by .1 and 184.5
Lakers by 11.5 and 195.3

Sides Record: 27-35-3
Totals: 41-24-1

Trend Notes:

2.6 dog is 22-25-1
1.0 dog is 26-30-1

2.0 under is 30-16-1
1.3 over is 17-14-1

Fading off both dogs, C's and Lakers for me
Playing totals as predicted: C's Under, Lakers Over for me

1/2 unit all plays, best of luck to all, back to bases!

 

[grindstone]

Accuscore:

Magic by .1 and 184.5
Lakers by 11.5 and 195.3

Sides Record: 27-35-3
Totals: 41-24-1

Trend Notes:

2.6 dog is 22-25-1
1.0 dog is 26-30-1

2.0 under is 30-16-1
1.3 over is 17-14-1

Fading off both dogs, C's and Lakers for me
Playing totals as predicted: C's Under, Lakers Over for me

1/2 unit all plays, best of luck to all, back to bases!

Hey Slice what's up brother. The Canes are still Alive and may they go off to the Stanley Cup Final. Ward is on fire and if he continues this way Carolina will advance. I love there chances +175 for the Series. I have to take a shot.

Sorry Slice to you post only your Baseball plays on the other site. Just wondering if you can post here also. Any plays today???

Loving the Lakers, Lakers will come out to prove there point that they are the best team in the West.

 

[grindstone]

Here are some Sunday's public #'s


Orl/Bost Bet# 13245

Spread
Bost 72%
Orl 28%

Total
56% Over
44% Under



LAL/Hous Bet# 13259

Spread
56% Hou
44%LAL

Total
71% Over
29% Under

Here are the lastest



Orl/Bost Bet# 16251

Spread
Bost 64%
Orl 36%

Total
64% Over
36% Under



LAL/Hous Bet# 16919

Spread
56% Hou
44%LAL

Total
72% Over
28% Under[/QUOTE]

 

[axp59]

Interesting to note that the line on HOU/LAL moved up to 13 yet the ML went down under +1000 on HOU. Someone wasn't matching numbers correctly when they initially set the original numbers. HOU is even a bigger dog now @ +13 yet you get less money from betting them SU?

I know different money moves each number independently but this is just a small sign that all bettors should be aware of. There are fallible humans making decisions on the other side. That's why they stack everything against the player because they know they are no smarter. Stay smart, stay disciplined. If these guys are going to get your money, make them work for it.

I'm leaning both overs today FWIW. Seems like the cappers on this thread are polarized on the ORL/BOS side and since I'm a complete homer, I'm not going to comment.
I will comment on the HOU/LAL side. There was very good reason why I took HOU for gm6 (my dad and I were on the same side but he had HOU SU). They were embarrassed by their performance in gm5. Gm6 was a redemption game at home. I think the LAL were embarrassed by their performance in HOU. Well, that argument just states they're going to win. 13 is a big number.

Got some last minute stuff. BRB

 

[grindstone]

Interesting to note that the line on HOU/LAL moved up to 13 yet the ML went down under +1000 on HOU. Someone wasn't matching numbers correctly when they initially set the original numbers. HOU is even a bigger dog now @ +13 yet you get less money from betting them SU?

I know different money moves each number independently but this is just a small sign that all bettors should be aware of. There are fallible humans making decisions on the other side. That's why they stack everything against the player because they know they are no smarter. Stay smart, stay disciplined. If these guys are going to get your money, make them work for it.

I'm leaning both overs today FWIW. Seems like the cappers on this thread are polarized on the ORL/BOS side and since I'm a complete homer, I'm not going to comment.
I will comment on the HOU/LAL side. There was very good reason why I took HOU for gm6 (my dad and I were on the same side but he had HOU SU). They were embarrassed by their performance in gm5. Gm6 was a redemption game at home. I think the LAL were embarrassed by their performance in HOU. Well, that argument just states they're going to win. 13 is a big number.

Got some last minute stuff. BRB

Hey AX did your Dad give you his input on both game 7's. Maybe he should of posted as AXP59 Sr,
it would of been an honor to see a legend post here.

 

[canuckfan77]

Hey AX did your Dad give you his input on both game 7's. Maybe he should of posted as AXP59 Sr,
it would of been an honor to see a legend post here.

Completely agree! :toast:

 

[grindstone]

Hey AX just wondering if you anything locked before 14:00, I have to leave for a family function and wont be around a computer. Thanks in advance. Sorry to be a:director:

 

[axp59]

LOL, crap fellas, you're stuck with me.

BTW, my dad hates computers. Old School.

My play today: I'm with the public on this one.

NBA [749] TOTAL o186-110 (ORL GM7 vrs BOS GM7)

BOLTA

 

[axp59]

Hey AX just wondering if you anything locked before 14:00, I have to leave for a family function and wont be around a computer. Thanks in advance. Sorry to be a:director:

Have fun GS. I'm going to a get-together myself @ 1500. Will miss the HOU/LAL game but my butt will be where it needs to be for the TNT game. :0corn