NBA THU 102909 early thoughts - value hunting

[axp59]

any opinon on vt/unc matchup tonight...:shrug:

I don't bro but slicer like the points tonight. +17

 

[axp59]

where do you get stats like this ...these are my favirote.

It's a program bro that yields a huge table of stats. That's misleading since it's meant to only show the O-U and it's completely situational. I wished I'd cut out the ATS and SU sections.

I'll share 'em as I get 'em but will be more careful to only show the relevant numbers.

:mj06:

 

[Mindframe913]

I like the ats and SU numbers though!

 

[axp59]

Thnx Ax for last night's pics. The under in Raps/Cavs came close but still pulled thru. Took the Detroit side as well. Thanks again...tailing you on the under tonight. Bol!

You're very welcome. Thank all these guys, they really know what they're doing. I'm the designated thread starter.

 

[axp59]

I like the ats and SU numbers though!

If you want, I can run those numbers for you so they are accurate. What I was trying to say is that those ATS and SU numbers do not apply to the same situation as the O-U figures. I hope that makes sense. I can't obviously run all 13 games for FRI but if you have something in mind, it won't be a problem to run 'em. Let me know pal.

 

[paradox]

Hello all. Firts of all i'd like to say, i have been following these threads since last year, and i love the input and the way it is given in here. I always feel that serious work is done here.

Well, i'd like to put a question here. Isn't this Denver odd a *little* exagerated?

I mean, i know Portland are a strong home team with 34-7 last season. But i do think this odd is too high given the team they are facing. I'll try to sum up my reasons for thinking that Denver has a shot at this.

- Carmelo in his best form ever (30 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists yesterday)

- Batum out for the Blazers, to me, their best perimeter defender. So that means either placing Outlaw guarding Melo, or Webster, which is way too short for Melo.

- Last season Denver lost their first against the Blazers by 9, without Melo, and were still competitive.

- Portland gave 26 turnovers to the Rockets in their last game

- Andre Miller still trying to fit properly

I'm open for opinions, but i'm loving the +7.5 or even the ML.

 

[JBrilman]

I think both games go under tonight.

BOL everyone

 

[JBrilman]

Hello all. Firts of all i'd like to say, i have been following these threads since last year, and i love the input and the way it is given in here. I always feel that serious work is done here.

Well, i'd like to put a question here. Isn't this Denver odd a *little* exagerated?

I mean, i know Portland are a strong home team with 34-7 last season. But i do think this odd is too high given the team they are facing. I'll try to sum up my reasons for thinking that Denver has a shot at this.

- Carmelo in his best form ever (30 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists yesterday)


- Batum out for the Blazers, to me, their best perimeter defender. So that means either placing Outlaw guarding Melo, or Webster, which is way too short for Melo.

- Last season Denver lost their first against the Blazers by 9, without Melo, and were still competitive.

- Portland gave 26 turnovers to the Rockets in their last game

- Andre Miller still trying to fit properly

I'm open for opinions, but i'm loving the +7.5 or even the ML.

Denver had Jones, Smith and Kleiza in that game, none of whom will be there tonight. Be careful with the Nuggets tonight.

 

[axp59]

As someone who lived in the ATL for a couple of years and listened to the occasional UGA game called by Larry Munson, nothing would agitate a Bulldogs supporter more than talk about Spurrier's success down in Gainesville.

Well, time's passed, Meyer's now the coach at UF, but some things never change: UGA continues to pine for 1980 and Walker and the national championship - a season that's taken on mythical proportions and haunts the myriad of UGA fans/alum in the same way that a return to Stanley Cup glory remains elusive for those who follow the Maple Laughs...

15 seems 'bout right given that the Gators may indeed wish to humiliate their counterparts from Athens, GA.

ETZ, is there anything you haven't touched. LOL You always have these great tidbits. Thank you sir. I think GA run D might be suspect for this game.

 

[axp59]

I'm open for opinions, but i'm loving the +7.5 or even the ML.

Welcome!

When I capped this game, I used 7 as the benchmark. Your analysis and arguments are compelling. The DEN team that made that run in the Playoffs last year is still very fresh in my memory. I too looked at this number and . So I ran some numbers how DEN plays on the road being at least 7 point dogs. Crap, not good at all bro. 9-16-1 last 3 years. Ouch. POR is 20-15-1 at home as favs of 7 or more for the same period.

Just sharing info bro. Don't let me sway you either way. These are just trends which alone don't mean much but as part of the big picture capping routine, it shows how vegas is setting the numbers for teams. BOL

 

[axp59]

I think both games go under tonight.

BOL everyone

GET SOME Brother!

 

[Mindframe913]

If you want, I can run those numbers for you so they are accurate. What I was trying to say is that those ATS and SU numbers do not apply to the same situation as the O-U figures. I hope that makes sense. I can't obviously run all 13 games for FRI but if you have something in mind, it won't be a problem to run 'em. Let me know pal.

I knew what ya meant but I still like them even in whatever situation you had in because I have bulls +4 :00x12

what would the numbers be the right way? im still taking bulls jsut very curious now.

 

[axp59]

I knew what ya meant but I still like them even in whatever situation you had in because I have bulls +4 :00x12

what would the numbers be the right way? im still taking bulls jsut very curious now.

CHI 7-7 ATS and 6-8 SU at home as dogs of 4 or more in past 3 years.

<TR><TD><TABLE bgColor=#ffffff><TBODY><TR><TH>Date</TH><TH>Team</TH><TH>Opp</TH><TH>Site</TH><TH>Final</TH><TH>Rest</TH><TH>FG%</TH><TH>Line</TH><TH>Total</TH><TH>SUm</TH><TH>ATSm</TH><TH>OUm</TH><TH>DPS</TH><TH>DPA</TH><TH>SUr</TH><TH>ATSr</TH><TH>OUr</TH><TH>ot</TH></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>20070102</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>Bulls</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>Suns</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>home</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>96-97</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>2&1</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>48-41</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>+4</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>+214</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>-1</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>3.0</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>-21.0</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>-9.0</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>-12.0</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>L</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>W</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>U</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>20070125</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>Bulls</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>Mavericks</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>home</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>96-85</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>1&1</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>42-31</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>+4'</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>+191</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>11</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>15.5</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>-10.0</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>2.8</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>-12.8</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>W</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>W</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>U</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>20071208</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>Bulls</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>Celtics</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>home</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>81-92</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>0&0</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>36-51</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>+5'</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>+182</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>-11</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>-5.5</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>-9.0</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>-7.2</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>-1.8</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>L</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>L</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>U</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>20080119</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>Bulls</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>Pistons</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>home</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>97-81</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>0&0</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>42-40</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>+6</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>+185'</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>16</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>22.0</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>-7.5</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>7.2</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>-14.8</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>W</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>W</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>U</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>20080127</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>Bulls</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>Suns</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>home</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>77-88</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>1&1</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>34-41</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>+7'</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>+208'</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>-11</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>-3.5</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>-43.5</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>-23.5</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>-20.0</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>L</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>L</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>U</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>20080212</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>Bulls</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>Hornets</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>home</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>86-100</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>2&2</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>40-48</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>+6</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>+189</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>-14</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>-8.0</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>-3.0</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>-5.5</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>2.5</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>L</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>L</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>U</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>20080222</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>Bulls</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>Nuggets</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>home</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>135-121</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>1&2</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>57-48</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>+4</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>+208'</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>14</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>18.0</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>47.5</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>32.8</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>14.8</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>W</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>W</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>O</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>20080320</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>Bulls</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>Spurs</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>home</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>80-102</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>1&2</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>37-44</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>+4</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>+190</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>-22</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>-18.0</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>-8.0</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>-13.0</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>5.0</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>L</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>L</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>U</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>20080401</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>Bulls</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>Celtics</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>home</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>92-106</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>2&1</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>41-49</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>+7</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>+198</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>-14</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>-7.0</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>0.0</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>-3.5</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>3.5</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>L</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>L</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>P</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>20080411</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>Bulls</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>Cavaliers</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>home</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>100-95</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>1&1</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>45-42</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>+5</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>+196</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>5</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>10.0</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>-1.0</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>4.5</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>-5.5</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>W</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>W</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>U</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>20081107</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>Bulls</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>Suns</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>home</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>100-83</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>1&1</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>51-40</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>+4'</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>+205</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>17</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>21.5</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>-22.0</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>-0.2</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>-21.8</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>W</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>W</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>U</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>20081231</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>Bulls</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>Magic</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>home</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>94-113</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>1&1</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>41-49</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>+6</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>+201'</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>-19</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>-13.0</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>5.5</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>-3.8</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>9.2</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>L</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>L</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>O</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>20090115</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>Bulls</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>Cavaliers</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>home</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>102-93</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>0&1</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>44-41</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>+8</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>+196</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>9</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>17.0</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>-1.0</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>8.0</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>-9.0</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>W</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>W</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff align=middle>U</TD><TD bgColor=#f5f5f5 align=middle>1</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>20090321</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>Bulls</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>Lakers</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>home</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>109-117</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>2&1</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>50-49</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>+4</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>+212</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>-8</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>-4.0</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>14.0</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>5.0</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>9.0</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>L</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle>L</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0f0 align=middle>O</TD><TD bgColor=#e6e6e6 align=middle></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR>

 

[paradox]

Welcome!

When I capped this game, I used 7 as the benchmark. Your analysis and arguments are compelling. The DEN team that made that run in the Playoffs last year is still very fresh in my memory. I too looked at this number and . So I ran some numbers how DEN plays on the road being at least 7 point dogs. Crap, not good at all bro. 9-16-1 last 3 years. Ouch. POR is 20-15-1 at home as favs of 7 or more for the same period.

Just sharing info bro. Don't let me sway you either way. These are just trends which alone don't mean much but as part of the big picture capping routine, it shows how vegas is setting the numbers for teams. BOL

I saw Denver playing yesterday, and i got the feeling that a B2B wont be a problem today. Even their rookie Ty Lawson had a great game, he seemed pretty motivated. Those numbers are indeed scary. I am still gonna look more into this, but i'm very tempted to take a shot at it. For what it's worth, i love the under too.

 

[Mindframe913]

and at 2.5 it favored bulls even more huh? lol so I should have taken them at +2.5 instead dam..well this is a good sign at least that it dropped down to that

 

[Mindframe913]

THe under hasnt moved once

 

[axp59]

I saw Denver playing yesterday, and i got the feeling that a B2B wont be a problem today. Even their rookie Ty Lawson had a great game, he seemed pretty motivated. Those numbers are indeed scary. I am still gonna look more into this, but i'm very tempted to take a shot at it. For what it's worth, i love the under too.

If you need to scratch that itch bro, go for it. Just don't scratch till it bleeds. LOL I think you know what I'm sayin. BOL friend. Looking forward to your participation in this thread. kurby

 

[axp59]

and at 2.5 it favored bulls even more huh? lol so I should have taken them at +2.5 instead dam..well this is a good sign at least that it dropped down to that

:mj07: :mj07:
man I've some some funny sh*t like that. Like, no play at -2 but unload when it's -3. WTF???:00x25

 

[axp59]

Enjoy the games fellas. going offline for a conf call @ 8.

Be back late night hopefully with early numbers for FRI

 

[Mindframe913]

:mj07: :mj07:
man I've some some funny sh*t like that. Like, no play at -2 but unload when it's -3. WTF???:00x25

lol yea everyone different I guess.

Opening nite in Chi town is enough for me. We all saw what happened to the cavs in toronto last night. Bulls did take C's 7 games last year , oh how we forget so fast. lol peace bro :mj06: