NBA THU 11-5-09 early thoughts - value hunting

easterntimezone

easterntimezone

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Forgot to add that Cleveland last season was particularly notorious for allowing a backdoor cover once Brown had cleared his bench in anticipation of a victory; the likes of Jamario Moon this time 'round doesn't inspire confidence that such behavior has changed significantly.
 
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logan

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I knew i should have played that clev game over this morning.... Taking a pass today.
 
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barts185

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I lean to both home teams (kicking myself for not taking UTA at +2), and to both unders, did not lock anything in.

I did lock in TOR+5 for tomorrow (line is dropping initially, would take +4 or better) and have a strong lean on POR -3. I was hoping to lay 2, but think there are more scenarios where tonight's game makes the POR line move against me than in my favor.

Good Luck,
Bart
 
shamrock

shamrock

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easterntimezone said:
Don't know what to make of this prop, to be honest - could see a scenario where Williams is high scorer for the Cavs and wins a numbers tally against Rose (who really does possess a pass-first mentality). So this hypothetical would witness Williams ending up w/ 22 and 3 assists whereas Rose finishes w/ 11 assists and 8 points. Williams is a 2 guard trapped in/doomed to a point's body.

Usually don't venture into propositions so reluctant to advise here.
Click to expand...

just a observation, but rose isn't logging big minutes yet. Hinrich has actually played more minutes against Milwaukee & Miami. rose only played 28 minutes Tuesday against bucks.
 
shamrock

shamrock

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Just some observations:
true Cleveland hasn't played as anticipated by some as of yet. But Chicago has really looked bad in early review.
After being embarrassed by Boston, and beaten by Miami (admittedly 2 Rd. Games for the Bulls), I expected them to really roll against a poor Milwaukee Club at the United Center Tuesday. Instead they came out and threw up a 13 and 16 the first 2 quarters, and went into into the 1/2 down 14 against a Michael Redd less bad Buck Club. Because of a monster second 1/2 by Deng (24 points/20 boards) they squeezed out a 2 point victory, more a result of Milwaukee blowing the game in the final minutes. Bulls however shot 39%, they shot 40% against Miami, a and 40% again against Boston.
This game opened at -12,was bet down to -10,now has slowly climbed to -11.5,with comparable action on both sides.

Interestingly the total in a 5 minute period last evening jumped a full point up, and just before noon today, jumped 4 full points in under 30 minutes. Anytime numbers move that quickly, your eyes have open. Again almost equal action (personage Wise)on both sides of the total, so why the huge move?
especially with such poor shooting by Chicago in the early season.
Not sure I can get behind anything in this game .*
 
Randercity

Randercity

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4-2 on early leans yesterday...

4-2 on early leans yesterday...

My only early play will be:

4.5 Pt Teaser...

CLEV Under 196 & UTAH +5.5

UTAH FH Pickem


With Thomas out for CHI, Bulls are thin up front, and CLEV is not, not at all with SHAQ, BIG Z, Varejao, Powe, Moon, Hickson, OH, a guy named KING. CLEV shored up their DEF the last few games, giving up 87, 79, & 90 their last 3. The trouble they had the first two games vs BOS/TOR was down low and I don't believe Miller/Noah are in the same group of BIGS as GARNETT/SHEED/PERKINS or BOSH/BARGNANI. Also, being at home the crowd will be into it, and the BULLS are averaging 87.5 a game. They haven't gone over 90 since the opening night win vs the SPURS.

The JAZZ are a hard team to get a read on, but I won't bet against them losing two straight at home. Especially with the flu bug in the SPURS locker room and McDyess / Thomas out. JAZZ have completely fallen apart in the 2nd half two games in a row. D Williams has been in foul trouble in both, along with Milsap and that has hurt. However, Sloan is too good a coach to let that linger and I expect a strong strong effort out of UTAH tonight.

I will be looking to play the SPURS and OVER 2H if I see any indication of a possible letdown by UTAH, but I don't expect that. UTAH should take care of business tonight.

G/L :SIB
 
CUBBOY69

CUBBOY69

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AX

AX

do you think i got a good number on the over 187 this morning..or does your number have it going under that total...i have the score capped at right around ..105-93 clevland
 
axp59

axp59

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CUBBOY69 said:
do you think i got a good number on the over 187 this morning..or does your number have it going under that total...i have the score capped at right around ..105-93 clevland
Click to expand...

Cub, when I first pre-capped this with the opening line @-12 and 186.5, my initial thought on the total was a lean for the over. I then fully capped the game with a sprinkle of statistical and fundemental analysis to go along with some trending and looking at the range of 95-80ish. nothing scientific with these numbers. Just where I see this one landing.

GO with your gut my friend, more often than not, it's the right thing to do. BOL
 
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pkkingster15

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Hey all!

Haven't had much time to cap today, but I posted originally my lean to the Cavs under, and with that point jump, that's my only play tonight.

BOL to everyone!
 
axp59

axp59

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My card tonight:

CLE -11.5
CHI/CLE U191.5
UTA -1

missed the boat on better numbers for snoozing.

BOL all

BTW...action only
 
CUBBOY69

CUBBOY69

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thanks ax

thanks ax

just was wondering what your thoughts were..ive had it locked in since 8 am ....thanks again my friend and good luck....and lets all say a prayer for the family members and loved ones of the soldiers at fort hood...god bless
 
axp59

axp59

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CUBBOY69 said:
just was wondering what your thoughts were..ive had it locked in since 8 am ....thanks again my friend and good luck....and lets all say a prayer for the family members and loved ones of the soldiers at fort hood...god bless
Click to expand...


So mote it be brother.
 
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