NBA THU 111909 early thoughts - value hunting

axp59

axp59

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Phoenix - 6 at New Orleans 218

nothing good can come out of betting on this game
initial lean NOH and Over

Utah 202 at San Antonio -8

the side need a little more study but I have a good lean on the over for now.

Chicago 191 at L.A. Lakers -9.5

Leaning CHI at this number but the O/U is a tossup.

My Early Thoughts
 
easterntimezone

easterntimezone

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axp59 said:
Phoenix - 6 at New Orleans 218

nothing good can come out of betting on this game
initial lean NOH and Over
Click to expand...

Initial view from here as well - Hornets undermanned and having just beaten the hapless Clips, now facing the white hot Suns? Expect heavy action on Phoenix, who although sport a gaudy record at present, may not be as robust as they appear... Toronto's game plan against them on Sunday is the best way to keep the contest close as opposed to getting caught up in their tempo.

Will be back either later tonight or sometime in the morning w/ hopefully some contributions.
 
axp59

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Value Calculations @ current numbers:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 221pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=294 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 114pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 5558" width=152><COL style="WIDTH: 107pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 5193" width=142><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 114pt; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17 width=152>Point Spread</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 107pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" width=142>Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Phoenix Suns -6</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>New Orleans Hornets +6</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>New Orleans Hornets +6</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl23 align=right x:num="-1.1800000000000068">($1.18)</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Over / Under</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>OVR 217</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>OVR 217</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>UND 217</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl23 align=right x:num="-4.69">($4.69)</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Point Spread</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Utah Jazz +7.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>Utah Jazz +7.5</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>San Antonio Spurs -7.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl23 align=right x:num="9.28">$9.28 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Over / Under</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>OVR 202</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>OVR 202</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>UND 202</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl23 align=right x:num="15.13">$15.13 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Point Spread</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Chicago Bulls +9.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>Los Angeles Lakers -9.5</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Los Angeles Lakers -9.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl23 align=right x:num="3.09">$3.09 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Over / Under</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>OVR 191.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>OVR 191.5</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>UND 191.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl23 align=right x:num="0.46000000000000085">$0.46 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
jagerfury

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40seven said:
So the best initial value is the largest positive or negative?
Click to expand...
I would look at Ax's #'s and conclude the higher positive number, as this is representing value. Therefore you would like the PHX games under at +15. How he arrives at these numbers, of course, I do not know?
 
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40seven

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jagerfury said:
I would look at Ax's #'s and conclude the higher positive number, as this is representing value. Therefore you would like the PHX games under at +15. How he arrives at these numbers, of course, I do not know?
Click to expand...

How do you get Phnx Under at +15 from that?
 
jagerfury

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The + $15 factor. $15 is greater than -$4 no? So it is of greater value to play the play where you would get a return on (x)$15 dollar multiplier than (x) -$4 dollar multiplier. I'm interpritating the dollars as a scale of value. I'm not counting points. I don't know how he gets his numbers.
 
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40seven

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jagerfury said:
The + $15 factor. $15 is greater than -$4 no? So it is of greater value to play the play where you would get a return on (x)$15 dollar multiplier than (x) -$4 dollar multiplier. I'm interpritating the dollars as a scale of value. I'm not counting points. I don't know how he gets his numbers.
Click to expand...

OK so you mean the Spurs game not the Phnx.

Thank you and Please this is a positive, friendly and fun thread......
 
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40seven

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OK the Spurs Over...

OK the Spurs Over...

I lean to this play as well because i feel the Jazz are going to be a higher scoring team this year then in the past. As the bench gets healthy they have some shooters.

All the talk is on Brandon Jennings, but by the end of the year Eric Maynor will get alot of press, he is the spark that the Jazz when Williams is on the bench...
 
axp59

axp59

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Guys,
These are only best value calculation. These are not calling games at all. When you get to the point where you've finished capping games and have taken a side or a total; then look to see if playing that pick gives you any value at all.

Take my initial post as an example.

game 1: doesn't matter what I like here, there is no value at all

game 2: I didn't pick a side but I liked the O. Now I see that playing the over gives me value (formula and calc I've explained many times before and can be found here, across the street or by web search)

game 3: I liked the CHI side here but the value is not on CHI so why bother? The O/U was a tossup for me so I'll likely pass.

Guys, we're all friends here I hope. Let's keep it positive please. Karma is a motherf*cker.

BOL
 
S

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jagerfury said:
and I thought this is where the douche bags didn't hang out. My mistake...
Click to expand...

Excuse me Sir, there was no disrespect what so ever with my comment. I was simply stating that i didn't understand it either. The laughing was because i was on the same page as him. This forum has nothing but class acts in it and i would think that you are one of them. I hope that you reread my initial message and look at it differently. I will end this with respectfully saying BOL to u Sir...
 
axp59

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:padlock:

NBA [703] TOTAL o197?-110
(UTAH vrs SAN ANTONIO)


I wonder why this dropped but I like it. I'll rerun value numbers for you guys since I have some time.
 
axp59

axp59

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softballmaniac said:
Excuse me Sir, there was no disrespect what so ever with my comment. I was simply stating that i didn't understand it either. The laughing was because i was on the same page as him. This forum has nothing but class acts in it and i would think that you are one of them. I hope that you reread my initial message and look at it differently. I will end this with respectfully saying BOL to u Sir...
Click to expand...

Softball, If you come across my explaination of value and still have questions, let me know. Be happy to help pal...anytime!
 
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40seven

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Sorry Ax

Sorry Ax

I am not trying to call your play.

With only 3 plays i had two leans...maybe 3.

The Spurs over

The Suns -

The Suns Over.

Your initial thing was cool but i did not understand it for sure..after some confusion I figured i would say what i think and it looked like you agreed....Just having fun
 
axp59

axp59

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40seven said:
I am not trying to call your play.

With only 3 plays i had two leans...maybe 3.

The Spurs over

The Suns -

The Suns Over.

Your initial thing was cool but i did not understand it for sure..after some confusion I figured i would say what i think and it looked like you agreed....Just having fun
Click to expand...

Brother, you know it's all good. I know where your heart is my friend.
 
MLBKING

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axp59 said:
:padlock:

NBA [703] TOTAL o197?-110
(UTAH vrs SAN ANTONIO)


I wonder why this dropped but I like it. I'll rerun value numbers for you guys since I have some time.
Click to expand...

The total went from 202 to 197.5 and the Spurs went from -8 to -5.5 +100. Ginobili is out with a strained groin, and Parker is listed as doubtful with a sprained ankle. GL with your plays tonight Ax :toast:
 
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