NBA THU 111909 early thoughts - value hunting

shamrock

shamrock

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axp59 said:
side-PHO

total-CHI/LAL O
Click to expand...

ax, the Laker over is certainly getting hit, as you stated. I'm seeing Utah get pounded from + 8 to + 5 with more balanced action on both sides. The Phoenix Action is very very one sided, and understandably the number has moved from 6 to 7.5.

I'm curious as to why you value the San Antonio over so much. My information has the number dropping from 202 to 197,with fairly balanced action. With the total trending down, wouldn't you wait and seek a possible better number later? Additionally with Parker and Ginobli out don't you see Spurs struggling offensively like last evening against Dallas?

Good luck my friend
shamrock
 
S

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Hope you guys cashed on Miami Fl -10 :mj06:

Nothing in the pros for me tonight, keep it rolling though guys looking forward to the FULL UNIT nights to come.
 
Ools

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axp59 said:
sounds to me like nobody's going to want to play defense in this game? Well, I'll hoping :00x11
Click to expand...

add in the fact tha SA played OT yesterday and a tough loss. D is the first thing they give up when tired. Add in the fact that SA is last in the league in offensive turnovers and SA 28th in turnovers caused and UT 25th in turnovers caused...over looks good with a lot of shots being launched
 
axp59

axp59

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shamrock said:
ax, the Laker over is certainly getting hit, as you stated. I'm seeing Utah get pounded from + 8 to + 5 with more balanced action on both sides. The Phoenix Action is very very one sided, and understandably the number has moved from 6 to 7.5.

I'm curious as to why you value the San Antonio over so much. My information has the number dropping from 202 to 197,with fairly balanced action. With the total trending down, wouldn't you wait and seek a possible better number later? Additionally with Parker and Ginobli out don't you see Spurs struggling offensively like last evening against Dallas?

Good luck my friend
shamrock
Click to expand...

Thanks Shamrock. Let me rerun my value numbers and come back after I feed the dogs :) To address the Spurs off struggles, I think I put more weight on UTA not really caring to stop anything. Will be back shortly.
 
easterntimezone

easterntimezone

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axp59 said:
To address the Spurs off struggles, I think I put more weight on UTA not really caring to stop anything.
Click to expand...

Utah = offensively oriented/driven team. Don't let the fact that Jerry Sloan is still the coach lead you to believe that they're a defensive juggernaut.

Would be interested to see if anyone could cite a certifiable LOCKDOWN defender on that team.
 
axp59

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VALUE as of 1700

VALUE as of 1700

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 228pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=304 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 114pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 5558" span=2 width=152><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 114pt; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17 width=152>Point Spread</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 114pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" width=152>Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Phoenix Suns -8</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>New Orleans Hornets +8</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>New Orleans Hornets +8</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl23 align=right x:num="13.63">$13.63 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Over / Under</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>OVR 214</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>UND 214</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>UND 214</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl23 align=right x:num="-2.9299999999999926">($2.93)</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Point Spread</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Utah Jazz +5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>San Antonio Spurs -5</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>San Antonio Spurs -5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl23 align=right x:num="2.3">$2.30 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Over / Under</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>OVR 197.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>OVR 197.5</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>UND 197.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl23 align=right x:num="5.81">$5.81 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Point Spread</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Chicago Bulls +9.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>Los Angeles Lakers -9.5</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Los Angeles Lakers -9.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl23 align=right x:num="9.28">$9.28 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Over / Under</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>OVR 196</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>UND 196</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>UND 196</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl23 align=right x:num="7.3800000000000097">$7.38 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Why do the numbers change?
as the lines move, the probability changes.
But the line hasn't moved on UTA/SAS.
as I recap games, my data provider changes player projections and thus results in different team final score projections.

I'm tempted to jump on NOH if this keeps up. I had a lead on them initialy but there was no value then. Now at +8, that's looking mighty attractive.

BOL
 
axp59

axp59

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My card: Only play.

If this was a regular night and I had to put down 1 full Unit, I'd have no play tonight. But since this is only for action:

:padlock:

NBA [703] TOTAL o197?-110
(UTAH vrs SAN ANTONIO)

caveat: not a popular play.:shrug:

BOL everyone.
 
K

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barts185 said:
While not saying SAS and the over is the ONLY way to look at the game, but anyone considering the Jazz or the under might want to check this out

team=Jazz and rest=0 and site=away and season>=2007

Leaning CHI.

Good Luck,
Bart
Click to expand...

bart,

How would you query for team that went to OT and lost. Just like SA lastnight went to OT with DAL and lost???

Thanks and BOL
 
axp59

axp59

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previous game goes to OT and lost on the road and now playing at home on a back-to-back last 5 years.

p:L and p:eek:vertime=1 and p:site=away and site=home and rest=0 and season>=2005
 
axp59

axp59

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have a great night everyone. Catch up with you guys soon. I just remembered my youngest son is coming up tomorrow for the weekend. I'll post my leans early but won't be much help with feedback.

:sadwave:
 
BIGWave

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axp59 said:
My card: Only play.

If this was a regular night and I had to put down 1 full Unit, I'd have no play tonight. But since this is only for action:

:padlock:

NBA [703] TOTAL o197?-110
(UTAH vrs SAN ANTONIO)

caveat: not a popular play.:shrug:

BOL everyone.
Click to expand...

CRAP - was liking that NO+8 with you.
 
Randercity

Randercity

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12-7 +5.20 Units

12-7 +5.20 Units

Only a few games to preview, so that should make it easy right? :rolleyes: Not a lot I like before they start due to key injuries, iffy players, and other uncertainties. However, I am going with this one teaser:

4.5 Point Teaser

SUNS 3.5 & CHI +14

Here's why... SUNS will run until they die, they are not going to change their game plan. With Collison starting for the HORNETS, N.O. has the capability to get it up the court quickly, which converts to more shots for the SUNS. Hornets do not have the depth to hang with the SUNS, and that lack of depth will show in the later stages of this game as the SUNS pull away.... I'm hoping for a tie game at the half and both teams shooting like 34%. Would make a NICE set up for Halftime play...

GASOL is expected to play tonight with the LAKERS and he's had one practice to get with the program. I cannot see this helping the LAKERS tonight. I'm expecting some set plays going into GASOL and more halfcourt sets, but with NOAH playing the way he is down low, I think he can cause some shooting woes for a rusty GASOL. LAKERS have not shown the ability to hold a lead, and I like the way CHI is playing, hustling for every loose ball, rebounding well, and the LAKERS are not exactly in sync right now, having lost to playoff foes HOU/DEN and then allowing DET back into a game they led by 28.

Good luck! :SIB
 
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