NBA THUR 06112009 early thoughts - value hunting (Finals)
- Thread starter JBrilman
- Start date
Finals - Game 4
Finals - Game 4
Thanks for your continued efforts & for sharing. I came in this morning and liked the Lakers and Under (less). I was actually thinking ML as you mentioned but after reading Ed's post I'm thinking about taking a couple points or more. Still researching and concerned that public is probably on the dog and the line has moved down. Still leaning Lakers and Under though. Looking forward to "the script," if any, ha. It sometimes comes too late for me. I've played almost all the playoff games: sides, totals and teases. I'm doing well but not great. They beat me up in Game 3 as I had too much on the under. Look forward to Teemo's post(s), if any. Warning, I'm a homer for LAL! I did have ORL -4 in the last game, however, and got the push. Should have gone with my home boys and gotten +4.5! Thanks again.
mnm
Finals - Game 4
Thanks for your continued efforts & for sharing. I came in this morning and liked the Lakers and Under (less). I was actually thinking ML as you mentioned but after reading Ed's post I'm thinking about taking a couple points or more. Still researching and concerned that public is probably on the dog and the line has moved down. Still leaning Lakers and Under though. Looking forward to "the script," if any, ha. It sometimes comes too late for me. I've played almost all the playoff games: sides, totals and teases. I'm doing well but not great. They beat me up in Game 3 as I had too much on the under. Look forward to Teemo's post(s), if any. Warning, I'm a homer for LAL! I did have ORL -4 in the last game, however, and got the push. Should have gone with my home boys and gotten +4.5! Thanks again.
mnm
J,
Havent popped in much but this seems like a good pass. On the one hand you have every pundit and their grandmother saying that ORL cant possibly shoot as well and therefore this game is for the taking for the Lakers. I counter that with that they have been on fire ALL year at home. They can certainly duplicate the effort from a points perspective by shooting more (they have been chucking less) and perhaps the media is right and are less effective.
On the other hand you make a great point about the bounceback factor which cant possible be ignored. My counter to that is that this is probably the best game LAL has played in the playoffs that they lost. 5 guys in double figures, Gasol shot like 90%, great on offensive glass. Yes, Kobe had his chances and you could say his 2nd half was subpar but that is simply going to happen in the playoffs.
I still think it comes down to Odom. He will play better but for some reason I have a sneaking suspicion ORL win this one in a tight one. No value whatsoever. Sorry
Pistol
Havent popped in much but this seems like a good pass. On the one hand you have every pundit and their grandmother saying that ORL cant possibly shoot as well and therefore this game is for the taking for the Lakers. I counter that with that they have been on fire ALL year at home. They can certainly duplicate the effort from a points perspective by shooting more (they have been chucking less) and perhaps the media is right and are less effective.
On the other hand you make a great point about the bounceback factor which cant possible be ignored. My counter to that is that this is probably the best game LAL has played in the playoffs that they lost. 5 guys in double figures, Gasol shot like 90%, great on offensive glass. Yes, Kobe had his chances and you could say his 2nd half was subpar but that is simply going to happen in the playoffs.
I still think it comes down to Odom. He will play better but for some reason I have a sneaking suspicion ORL win this one in a tight one. No value whatsoever. Sorry
Pistol
Some good reading on the other side from ValueforRent and Mr. Bator.
Both are on Orlando.
Thinking I may be a convert (even as a Laker homer)
Say it isn't so
Say it isn't so
LA and the OVER
Why!
OM played the best they could play in Game 3 and pulled out a W, but LA has alot of upside.
Take Odom he played a C game
Take Pau he was ignored in the 2nd half
and No 24 he has alot to improve!
all 3 will Lakers ML and Over both will score 100+
IMHO
Say it isn't so
LA and the OVER
Why!
OM played the best they could play in Game 3 and pulled out a W, but LA has alot of upside.
Take Odom he played a C game
Take Pau he was ignored in the 2nd half
and No 24 he has alot to improve!
all 3 will Lakers ML and Over both will score 100+
IMHO
FWIW, I took +3.5 and +139 as soon as the lines came out, but did it expecting the money to pour in on the Lakers and it has.
I now have a decision on whether or not I want to keep the wagers I have or take the "free money" by taking the other side.
Personally, I think the Lakers will win this game, but it is NOT a strong opinion at all, so am likely going to middle the game and hope for a 2 or 3 point win.
As has been pointed out, last game was NOT the typical "we just are taking the night off" effort that has been prevalent from the Lakers. They played well, and still lost. I'm not sure if that will motivate them to play better, or not.
So, I like the Lakers a little, am going to leave a small amount on that side and get off the rest of the game with a decent ML middle.
I now have a decision on whether or not I want to keep the wagers I have or take the "free money" by taking the other side.
Personally, I think the Lakers will win this game, but it is NOT a strong opinion at all, so am likely going to middle the game and hope for a 2 or 3 point win.
As has been pointed out, last game was NOT the typical "we just are taking the night off" effort that has been prevalent from the Lakers. They played well, and still lost. I'm not sure if that will motivate them to play better, or not.
So, I like the Lakers a little, am going to leave a small amount on that side and get off the rest of the game with a decent ML middle.
Sounds like to me you know Orlando will win you just don't want to say it. Reading this alone sounds like Orlando gets to $. GL
- Jul 17, 2008
- 658
- 2
- 18
Picking right up where we left off....
KOBE's determination in Playoff Games in particular is measurable - and this is the ideal time for him to allow his gamesmanship take over. NOW - we've seen so often how this manifests itself - quite often as KOBE's shot att RAISE - LAL's success typically drops Phil\Tex Triange Offense - predicated on unselfish 'System' ball, precision extra pass). Not only does LAL's effectiveness DROP - it occasionally PLUMMETS.
BALANCE:
ORLANDO: With re-emergence of MAGIC GUARD PRODUCTION - in particular Alson AND Peitrus, adds a element of BALANCE that dramatically improves Orlando's overall ability to overcome one or two off-nights from ONE or ONE-AND-a-HALF of the Magic Big Three: Lewis, Turk, Howard.
Magic Balance is simply demonstrated by 5 numbers:
21 Lewis
21 Howard
20 ALSTON
18 Peitrus
18 Turkoglu
LA LAKERS: Lakers are getting more UN balanced - which is just not Laker ball.
31 Kobe
23 Gasol
13 Ariza
11 Odom
11 Farmar
Although we've gone into great detail about almost every aspect of Game Match-ups, the clear THEMES that comes out of Game 3, that should be determining factors into Game 4, are:
LA LAKERS - The Lakers played thier best game of the series on Tuesday, and FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 09 PLAYOFFS, LAL PLAYED THEIR 'A' GAME, (w FT's, maybe A-), EXPELLED MAXIMUM EFFORT, YET DID NOT WIN.
SHOT 51.3%
HELD HOWARD TO 6 SHOT ATT
WE'RE AGAIN OUT-REBOUNDED
ODOM, KOBE & ARIZA;
VISIBLE SIGNS -OF LASTING FATIGUE
BRYANT was BULL-DOGGED BY LEE
TIRELESS, FRESH-LEGGED ROOKIE
ODOM - AFTER SLIPPING (admitting he's hurting)
DROPPING IN ACTIVITY\Production
ORLANDO: Sure - they won't be able to duplicate 62.5 FG% (and 68.4% TRUE SHOOTING), is ramping up in almost every category - and feeding off Home Cooking.
Orl has gone from really poor FG% to suburb
G1: 29.9%
G2: 41.2%
G3: 62.5%
The hangover from THEIR 'Chase' of Missed OT Game 2 is clearly LONG-GONE, with Win out of the way, and feeling that they are back in the series and clicking with so many more ancillary weapons.
Intangibles for capping Game 4:
I. LAL MAY NOW HAVE THE 'CHASING' MIND-SET THAT ORLANDO COULD HAVE ADOPTED AFTER MISSED OT GAME ON SUNDAY.
II. WHEN KOBE BY-PASSES TRIANGLE TO PLAY HIS 1-on-5 GAME, LAL MUCH LESS-EFFICIENT OFFENSIVELY
III. ORL HAS SO MUCH MORE BALANCE - & ABILITY TO WITHSTAND POOR SHOOTING NIGHT BY A KEY PLAYER
IV. ORL HAS ACTUALLY FOUND A MODERATELY EFFICIENT WAY OF GETTING SOME PRODUCTION OUT OF OPTION #1 - HOWARD\TURK PICK & ROLL (HOWARD~TURKOGLU),
W\ALSTON'S EFFECTIVE COMPLETION OF SHOT MAKING
THE SAFETY VALVE WHICH FINALLY CAME THRU
ARIZA-SCREEN-SLIP MANEUVER & UNDERMINES STALWART LAKER PICK-&-ROLL, OVERPLAY 'D'.
ALLOWED LEWIS AND TURKOGLU TO GET CUSTOMARY 3-PT SHOTS
THEY HIT 4 OF 9 COMBINED
Incidentally - the best value on this game is probably the UNDER. The Pace of these two teams - DESPITE the 212 PTS of G3, CONTINUES to drop.
Last Game, it was a SERIES-LOW: 84.8
BOTH teams shot astronomical FG%, that would be nearly impossible to repeat - and Orlando's insistence ion E-O, has LAL hyper-conscious of Transition HEAD-ON-A SWIVEL Defense.
GAME 3:
ORL OFF RATING: 132.0 (Somewhere near Saturn\never seen a rating like that in Playoffs - ever)
LAL's OFF RATING: 118.5 (09 Playoff-high)
To say these MUST come down is an understatement. I really like Orlando and the Under - ESP. with the Teaser line.
2.5 UNIT | 5 POINT TEASER
LA LAKERS AT ORLANDO
ORLANDO +3.5 TO UNDER 206 (Bodog)
0.5 UNIT
ORLANDO -2
KOBE's determination in Playoff Games in particular is measurable - and this is the ideal time for him to allow his gamesmanship take over. NOW - we've seen so often how this manifests itself - quite often as KOBE's shot att RAISE - LAL's success typically drops Phil\Tex Triange Offense - predicated on unselfish 'System' ball, precision extra pass). Not only does LAL's effectiveness DROP - it occasionally PLUMMETS.
BALANCE:
ORLANDO: With re-emergence of MAGIC GUARD PRODUCTION - in particular Alson AND Peitrus, adds a element of BALANCE that dramatically improves Orlando's overall ability to overcome one or two off-nights from ONE or ONE-AND-a-HALF of the Magic Big Three: Lewis, Turk, Howard.
Magic Balance is simply demonstrated by 5 numbers:
21 Lewis
21 Howard
20 ALSTON
18 Peitrus
18 Turkoglu
LA LAKERS: Lakers are getting more UN balanced - which is just not Laker ball.
31 Kobe
23 Gasol
13 Ariza
11 Odom
11 Farmar
Although we've gone into great detail about almost every aspect of Game Match-ups, the clear THEMES that comes out of Game 3, that should be determining factors into Game 4, are:
LA LAKERS - The Lakers played thier best game of the series on Tuesday, and FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 09 PLAYOFFS, LAL PLAYED THEIR 'A' GAME, (w FT's, maybe A-), EXPELLED MAXIMUM EFFORT, YET DID NOT WIN.
SHOT 51.3%
HELD HOWARD TO 6 SHOT ATT
WE'RE AGAIN OUT-REBOUNDED
ODOM, KOBE & ARIZA;
VISIBLE SIGNS -OF LASTING FATIGUE
BRYANT was BULL-DOGGED BY LEE
TIRELESS, FRESH-LEGGED ROOKIE
ODOM - AFTER SLIPPING (admitting he's hurting)
DROPPING IN ACTIVITY\Production
ORLANDO: Sure - they won't be able to duplicate 62.5 FG% (and 68.4% TRUE SHOOTING), is ramping up in almost every category - and feeding off Home Cooking.
Orl has gone from really poor FG% to suburb
G1: 29.9%
G2: 41.2%
G3: 62.5%
The hangover from THEIR 'Chase' of Missed OT Game 2 is clearly LONG-GONE, with Win out of the way, and feeling that they are back in the series and clicking with so many more ancillary weapons.
Intangibles for capping Game 4:
I. LAL MAY NOW HAVE THE 'CHASING' MIND-SET THAT ORLANDO COULD HAVE ADOPTED AFTER MISSED OT GAME ON SUNDAY.
II. WHEN KOBE BY-PASSES TRIANGLE TO PLAY HIS 1-on-5 GAME, LAL MUCH LESS-EFFICIENT OFFENSIVELY
III. ORL HAS SO MUCH MORE BALANCE - & ABILITY TO WITHSTAND POOR SHOOTING NIGHT BY A KEY PLAYER
IV. ORL HAS ACTUALLY FOUND A MODERATELY EFFICIENT WAY OF GETTING SOME PRODUCTION OUT OF OPTION #1 - HOWARD\TURK PICK & ROLL (HOWARD~TURKOGLU),
W\ALSTON'S EFFECTIVE COMPLETION OF SHOT MAKING
THE SAFETY VALVE WHICH FINALLY CAME THRU
ARIZA-SCREEN-SLIP MANEUVER & UNDERMINES STALWART LAKER PICK-&-ROLL, OVERPLAY 'D'.
ALLOWED LEWIS AND TURKOGLU TO GET CUSTOMARY 3-PT SHOTS
THEY HIT 4 OF 9 COMBINED
Incidentally - the best value on this game is probably the UNDER. The Pace of these two teams - DESPITE the 212 PTS of G3, CONTINUES to drop.
Last Game, it was a SERIES-LOW: 84.8
BOTH teams shot astronomical FG%, that would be nearly impossible to repeat - and Orlando's insistence ion E-O, has LAL hyper-conscious of Transition HEAD-ON-A SWIVEL Defense.
GAME 3:
ORL OFF RATING: 132.0 (Somewhere near Saturn\never seen a rating like that in Playoffs - ever)
LAL's OFF RATING: 118.5 (09 Playoff-high)
To say these MUST come down is an understatement. I really like Orlando and the Under - ESP. with the Teaser line.
2.5 UNIT | 5 POINT TEASER
LA LAKERS AT ORLANDO
ORLANDO +3.5 TO UNDER 206 (Bodog)
0.5 UNIT
ORLANDO -2
Sorry if it sounds like that, wasn't meaning to sound like that.
I have a small position on the Lakers, I will win money no matter who wins the game on the ML, will win some if the Lakers cover +3.5, will lose a small amount if Orlando wins by 4 or more and if it ends with Orlando winning by 2 or 3, you might just hear my "YES!!!!" scream from wherever you are
Good Luck,
Bart
- Mar 22, 2009
- 100
- 0
- 0
have clowned Fish this whole playoffs. You got tire tracks, you might miss the first 28 shots, but you got onions. All that matters.
lost 3 units for the half but got huge bet
LA Lakers +2.5 --- win & In live betting la lakes -1.5 3rd qt
Nize day at office.:0corn :0corn
Very nice day.
AS much as ValueforRent and Mr Bator had me swaying to the Orlando side I got a call last minute from my old college roomate and long time sports bettor.
He set me straight and put me back on my Lakers. Some will call it luck they won the game, I call it the heart of a champion and a will to win.
Under for 3 unit
LAKERS ML parlayed with the under for 1.5 units
GREAT NIGHT!
AS much as ValueforRent and Mr Bator had me swaying to the Orlando side I got a call last minute from my old college roomate and long time sports bettor.
He set me straight and put me back on my Lakers. Some will call it luck they won the game, I call it the heart of a champion and a will to win.
Under for 3 unit
LAKERS ML parlayed with the under for 1.5 units
GREAT NIGHT!
