NBA THURS 01282010-Early Thoughts and Value Hunting

[KillerKardoogan]

Mornin Fellas

I haven't been around much (busy capping), but I
thought I'd start with a little bit about karma.

In the Blazer game last night, Nicolas Batum got his first real run of the season after having his shoulder surgically repaired. He came in early in the 1Q; quickly tripled Portland's score (not hard to do when it's 21-2 !!); and then proceeded to get popped in that shoulder by an illegal screen from Carlos Boozer.
It's a 20 point game !
The kid is skinnier than Rudy Fernandez !
Why you gotta raise your elbow and give a forearm shiver right to where you know he's hurt ?

Enter karma.
Loozer had to later leave the game with a calf injury.
:sadwave:


As for today's card, anybody think Phoenix gets it done?
I don't.

However, given their propensity for quick starts at home, I'll be saving half my bet for 1H in-game.
BOLTA

 

[40seven]

BB Great job last night!!!

BB Great job last night!!!

:00hour

 

[BillyBatts]

Leans

Leans

At ist glance, I'm liking

Knicks and Under
Celts plus the points.


See if I can find a play on this limited schedule.kurby

 

[40seven]

What I have for now

What I have for now

I have studied the Raptors B2B for this season and they are 2 and 8. 4 times they followed an Over to an Under and 4 times an Under to an Over, while twice they have gone Over/Over.

So 10 back to backs 6 times game 1 went Over and 4 of those 6 it went Under and twice over.

4 times Game 1 was at home and Game 2 on the road and they have not covered any of those game two's. Of those 4 games twice they won game one and game two both times went Over.

So the Knicks covering at least shows a trend.

 

[Lumi]

ATS TrendsToronto

ATS TrendsToronto

ATS Trends

Toronto

Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Raptors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Raptors are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.


New York

Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Knicks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.
Knicks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Knicks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
Knicks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Knicks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Knicks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Knicks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.


OU Trends

Toronto

Over is 7-0 in Raptors last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Over is 9-1 in Raptors last 10 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 8-1 in Raptors last 9 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Over is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in Raptors last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 16-5 in Raptors last 21 Thursday games.
Over is 19-7-1 in Raptors last 27 vs. Eastern Conference.
Over is 5-2 in Raptors last 7 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Over is 10-4 in Raptors last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 35-16-1 in Raptors last 52 road games.
Over is 35-16-1 in Raptors last 52 games as a road underdog.


New York

Under is 8-0 in Knicks last 8 Thursday games.
Over is 4-1 in Knicks last 5 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Knicks last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Knicks last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 4-1 in Knicks last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Over is 4-1 in Knicks last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Under is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Under is 10-4 in Knicks last 14 games as a home favorite.
Under is 10-4 in Knicks last 14 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 7-3 in Knicks last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 9-4 in Knicks last 13 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
Under is 13-6 in Knicks last 19 games as a favorite.
Under is 25-12 in Knicks last 37 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.


Head to Head

No trends available.

 

[Lumi]

Today's Refs - Toronto at New York

Today's Refs - Toronto at New York

Today's Refs - Toronto at New York

Tony Brown - Profile
GeneralJersey Number 30 Avg. Home Score 100.1
Games Officiated 33 Avg. Road Score 97.2
Home Team ATS 17-16-0 Home Avg. Margin 3.0
Home Team W/L 22-11 Avg. Total Score 197.3
Over/Under vs. the TotalOverall 16-17
184.5 or less 0-1
185-194.5 5-6
195-204.5 7-8
205+ 4-2
Favorite or UnderdogSpread Home Fav Home Dog
0-4.5 5-5 2-1
5-9.5 3-5 4-1
10+ 3-4 0-0

Recent Games with TorontoDate vs. Score Line O/U Mar TOR FG Opp FG Reb
01/20/10 @MIL L 107-113 L 2.5 O 205.0 -3.5 38/85 43/92 40-47
12/13/09 HOU W 101-88 W 2 U 203.5 15.0 40/80 32/87 40-41
11/27/09 @BOS L 103-116 L 9.5 O 203.0 -3.5 39/70 48/77 31-26
11/11/09 CHI W 99-89 W -5.5 U 206.5 4.5 36/88 35/88 47-46
04/01/09 @ORL W 99-95 W 10 U 206.0 14.0 41/83 31/76 49-35
02/18/09 CLE L 76-93 L 7.5 U 191.0 -9.5 31/85 40/69 32-48
01/04/09 ORL W 108-102 W 7.5 O 187.5 13.5 41/76 35/76 39-31
12/20/08 @SA L 97-107 P 10 O 185.0 0.0 40/88 42/86 38-48
03/12/08 @GS L 106-117 L 10 U 223.5 -1.0 42/84 49/88 38-40
02/25/08 @IND W 102-98 W -3 U 207.5 1.0 34/71 37/87 46-39
Recent Games with New YorkDate vs. Score Line O/U Mar NY FG Opp FG Reb
12/18/09 LAC W 95-91 W -2 U 202.0 2.0 38/81 33/72 39-36
11/07/09 @MIL L 87-102 L 4 U 195.5 -11.0 33/80 41/88 34-54
12/30/08 @CHAR W 93-89 W 4.5 U 205.5 8.5 36/85 35/82 43-44
11/05/08 CHAR W 101-98 L -4 U 204.0 -1.0 38/77 41/84 36-44
04/08/08 @DET W 98-94 W 10.5 U 194.0 14.5 41/76 36/101 45-51
11/26/07 UTA W 113-109 W 5.5 O 193.5 9.5 42/79 43/85 32-42
11/17/07 @DEN L 83-115 L 14 U 215.0 -18.0 32/84 43/88 46-51
03/14/07 @TOR L 94-104 L 6.5 U 199.0 -3.5 34/72 35/69 36-36
11/13/06 CLE L 96-102 L 5 U 199.0 -1.0 39/80 36/79 38-40
11/03/06 @ATL L 92-102 L 2.5 U 204.0 -7.5 33/72 39/82 40-38

Scott Foster - Profile
GeneralJersey Number 48 Avg. Home Score 101.4
Games Officiated 37 Avg. Road Score 98.2
Home Team ATS 16-21-0 Home Avg. Margin 3.2
Home Team W/L 23-14 Avg. Total Score 199.6
Over/Under vs. the TotalOverall 17-18
184.5 or less 3-2
185-194.5 3-7
195-204.5 3-7
205+ 8-2
Favorite or UnderdogSpread Home Fav Home Dog
0-4.5 2-5 3-1
5-9.5 3-8 4-2
10+ 3-5 1-0

Recent Games with TorontoDate vs. Score Line O/U Mar TOR FG Opp FG Reb
01/06/10 @ORL W 108-103 W 8 O 205.5 13.0 39/71 31/74 35-35
12/16/09 @ORL L 99-118 L 11 O 207.0 -8.0 39/89 43/75 31-42
03/20/09 CHAR L 89-102 L -1.5 U 193.5 -14.5 30/67 42/83 34-33
01/16/09 @IND L 104-111 L 4.5 O 213.5 -2.5 34/83 38/84 49-38
12/29/08 @GS L 111-117 L -1.5 O 212.0 -7.5 41/93 38/76 49-37
11/01/08 @MIL W 91-87 W 1 U 189.5 5.0 30/63 36/81 35-39
04/24/08 ORL W 108-94 W -4 U 204.5 10.0 42/85 34/73 42-34
01/13/08 POR W 116-109 (OT) W -5.5 O 184.0 1.5 45/93 44/107 44-52
12/07/07 @BOS L 84-112 L 12.5 O 188.0 -15.5 34/80 39/74 32-44
04/24/07 NJ W 89-83 W -5.5 U 193.5 0.5 31/76 31/76 44-45
Recent Games with New YorkDate vs. Score Line O/U Mar NY FG Opp FG Reb
12/20/09 CHAR W 98-94 L -6 U 196.0 -2.0 32/71 38/84 34-44
03/31/09 @DEN L 104-111 W 12.5 U 222.0 5.5 38/85 46/84 45-40
03/25/09 LAC L 135-140 (OT) L -6 O 217.0 -11.0 51/92 56/97 36-43
01/12/09 @NO W 101-95 W 11.5 U 203.5 17.5 39/89 33/86 45-52
12/10/08 @NJ W 121-109 W 7.5 O 214.0 19.5 40/79 44/82 38-34
11/14/08 OKC W 116-106 W -8 O 208.5 2.0 40/89 44/93 48-52
11/07/08 @WAS W 114-108 W 4.5 O 211.5 10.5 46/90 46/89 36-50
01/19/08 @MIA W 88-84 W 4.5 U 195.5 8.5 33/82 31/79 43-40
12/08/07 PHI L 77-105 L -5 U 187.5 -33.0 25/70 43/81 27-47
11/11/07 MIA L 72-75 L -3 U 192.0 -6.0 28/75 32/73 39-43

Tommy Nunez Jr. - Profile
GeneralJersey Number 28 Avg. Home Score 105.2
Games Officiated 31 Avg. Road Score 99.6
Home Team ATS 15-16-0 Home Avg. Margin 5.6
Home Team W/L 19-12 Avg. Total Score 204.7
Over/Under vs. the TotalOverall 14-17
184.5 or less 1-0
185-194.5 2-7
195-204.5 5-5
205+ 6-5
Favorite or UnderdogSpread Home Fav Home Dog
0-4.5 2-5 1-2
5-9.5 4-5 3-2
10+ 4-2 1-0

Recent Games with TorontoDate vs. Score Line O/U Mar TOR FG Opp FG Reb
12/01/09 WAS L 102-106 L -7 U 213.5 -11.0 36/84 40/84 50-43
10/28/09 CLE W 101-91 W 7 U 194.0 17.0 34/75 29/83 48-49
02/20/09 @NY L 97-127 L 3 O 213.0 -27.0 38/93 46/93 45-51
12/26/08 @SAC W 107-101 W -3 O 197.0 3.0 38/69 36/80 39-34
03/14/08 @DEN L 105-137 L 8.5 O 217.0 -23.5 44/90 47/85 37-41
02/27/08 MIN W 107-85 W -11.5 U 198.5 10.5 40/81 33/66 37-33
01/13/08 POR W 116-109 (OT) W -5.5 O 184.0 1.5 45/93 44/107 44-52
12/11/07 @ATL W 100-88 W -3 O 186.0 9.0 36/80 31/80 44-46
12/03/07 CHAR W 98-79 W -4 U 189.0 15.0 38/75 27/81 46-35
04/09/07 @MIN W 111-100 W -2.5 O 196.0 8.5 39/81 38/81 39-42
Recent Games with New YorkDate vs. Score Line O/U Mar NY FG Opp FG Reb
12/15/09 @CHAR L 87-94 L 5 U 196.0 -2.0 34/75 36/77 35-42
11/29/09 ORL L 102-114 L 6 O 206.0 -6.0 42/83 42/83 37-47
02/20/09 TOR W 127-97 W -3 O 213.0 27.0 46/93 38/93 51-45
01/16/09 @WAS L 89-96 L 3.5 U 208.0 -3.5 32/86 37/83 49-42
12/02/08 POR L 97-104 W 8 U 211.5 1.0 32/78 40/90 36-54
03/16/08 ATL L 98-109 L 2.5 O 200.5 -8.5 40/94 40/82 41-47
03/01/08 @ORL L 92-118 L 11.5 O 209.5 -14.5 36/89 41/79 37-54
02/04/08 LAC L 94-103 L -5 O 189.5 -14.0 35/69 37/80 35-39
12/07/07 @PHI L 90-101 L 4 O 187.5 -7.0 37/86 42/86 41-45
11/16/07 @SAC L 118-123 (OT) L 3 O 198.5 -2.0 40/100 41/86 53-46

 

[Lumi]

Obviously this doesn't come out correctly when I copy and paste :nono:

If you want the links I will send my stuff out, Billy got a small sample yesterday :0corn

 

[BillyBatts]

Thanks illuminati

Thanks illuminati

So far so good with the links. :toast:


Just noticed the refs in today's knicks game, when the total is 205+ on games these 3 have worked, the over is 18-9
:shrug:
Makes me rethink my under lean

 

[40seven]

More on the Raptors

More on the Raptors

They have 8 Road Wins this year and 16 Losses. Only twice when the Lost did they cover.

They won in NY two weeks ago 112-104 the Total went Over on 3 days rest. Vegas lost that night when the Raptors covered a 2 point spread.

Two weeks later the Knicks are giving 3 1/2.....

The Knicks are a solid play for me

 

[BillyBatts]

I agree

I agree

Just can't figure out which play I like more, the Knicks or the Under. Similar to the Thunder gaame last night when I took OKC instead of Under. I don't play a side and total on same game or parlays. Maybe I need to start :violin:

 

[Lumi]

total up to 217

 

[BillyBatts]

Keep going up

Keep going up

I see as high as 217.5 at some. :scared

I have the game capped at 208 with rest, recent play, and everything else I put into it, but I think the linesmakers have adjusted too much in this game, due to Knicks outburst the other night vs a Terrible Minny defense, and the Raps lack of defense on the 2nd of a b2b, which isnt AS bad lately. The avg closing total for these 2 last 5 games, has avg at 202.5. They have combined to go over 8 out of 10 between the 2. :scared avg going over by 6.2 points a game. So even if I add that to my original total of 208, we're still only at 214.

 

[JBrilman]

SUNS @ HOME W/ 1 DAY REST COMING OFF 2 SU LOSSES

SUNS @ HOME W/ 1 DAY REST COMING OFF 2 SU LOSSES

team=Suns and site=home and 1=t:rest and streak==-2 and 20071030<=date
SU: 6-0 (17.5)
ATS: 4-2-0 (10.8) avg line: -6.8
O/U: 2-4-0 (-9.4) avg total: 212.6

But these are not the same suns IMO

 

[JBrilman]

UNDER

UNDER

9-0-1 in the last 10 Thursday games.

 

[JBrilman]

HOME TEAMS ON THURSDAY THIS YEAR

HOME TEAMS ON THURSDAY THIS YEAR

site=home and day=Thursday and 20091030<=date
SU: 19-9 (5.2)
ATS: 18-8-2 (2.8) avg line: -2.4
O/U: 8-19-1 (-4.5) avg total: 199.1

 

[JBrilman]

Obviously this doesn't come out correctly when I copy and paste :nono:

If you want the links I will send my stuff out, Billy got a small sample yesterday :0corn

please send to

justinbrilman @ ymail

 

[JBrilman]

Interesting

Interesting

Mavs are playing there 5th in 8 days

Suns are playing there 6th in 8 days

 

[BillyBatts]

Good info

Good info

Nice stats JB, I agree though that these aren't the same Suns. Something just gives me a feeling they play well at home tonight, and the Mavs have one of those games that will make Mavs backers go :00x25


My recent picks 13-9 W/L POD's 4-2


Plays for tonight I just locked in

Knicks Under 217.5 POD
Celtics +3.5

Best of luck. I'm out for a bit. Will join in the convo later :toast:

 

[bobble1woody]

Has anyone paid attention to PittViper's plays, that guy is on fire, not a bad idea riding his plays for awhile...

 

[JBrilman]

Has anyone paid attention to PittViper's plays, that guy is on fire, not a bad idea riding his plays for awhile...

I look at them everyday, and have only gone against his plays 1 time in a the last 10 or so. He is on a very solid run!:00hour

Tonight he is on

TOR
DAL