NBA THURSDAY 042309 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[JBrilman]

Pierce and Rondo are going nuts and Bulls have missed 7 free throws and only a 7 point lead...


Here come DA BULLS

 

[proguy747]

HOMER ALERT

NBA [508] TOTAL u202-110
(BOS GM3 vrs CHI GM3)

1U
BOLTA

sounds like you got a little ring from a friend. :toast:

I took 2 units celtic ml. :toast: :toast:

Nice ax see you tomm

 

[axp59]

sounds like you got a little ring from a friend. :toast:

I took 2 units celtic ml. :toast: :toast:

Nice ax see you tomm

I had an un-posted ML play on BOS myself. No way I was going to put that one out there...it was a gamble and didn't want any blind tailers losing their $$ on my homer ML.

Well, posted plays now 7-1. Capping FRI games now and I LOVE what I see.:director:

 

[softballmaniac]

Just wanted to say thank you Ax for all you do for us. I found you a few weeks ago when things weren't going so well and you took a break. Great move. It was difficult not seeing your writeups for a bit but welcome back. So much respect for you. Love your writeups and the time you take to answer all questions. Truely a class act. You have really changed my approach to this stuff. PATIENCE AND DICIPLINE. I wish you continued success.

 

[easterntimezone]

I'm going to work this angle this afternoon. What's different between BOS/CHI this year and BOS/ATL last year. Last year, this kind of talk sprung up mid-series. Since CHI took the first and almost took the 2nd, the talk started early this year. The obvious is not what i'm looking for. I'm also looking at this as team vs team. I don't care about Ray or Rose or Paul or Ben. Teams that reach the playoffs achieve synergy. If the whole is indeed greater than the sum of its part, logic dictates that you ask where the 'extra' comes from. That 'extra' is the essence of team. Can the aging, injured, dismissed by the public Celtics team go into CHI and beat the young and confident hometown team.
The answer to this game is out there. The NBA is an old league. There's been many situations like this. Forget the trends, look back on your notes. You'll see the same questions you're asking now.
"The heavy fav isn't looking good in this series."
"This young team stole one and they're not afraid anymore."
I don't have a side of course because I don't want to sway anyone on my action. Can't trust a homer to be completely objective. You have both types right here in BOS. There are some that's already packed up for the summer and there are die-hards that can't see anything but a C's V. Note this game and put it away. It'll come in handy, again, in the near future.

BOL

+1 -> portent of what's to come perhaps in the Portland-Houston series as well?; despite the prodigious (and precocious) play of Rose - he is still a rookie and will be navigating in unfamiliar territory...

And for all of the praise that the Trail Blazers have received, it took a Herculean effort from Roy and his 42 to salvage a victory last game out against Houston.

"There's something about experience. In life, when you don't have it, you think it's overrated. When you have it, it's obviously very, very important."
- Detroit Red Wings coach Mike Babcock

When can you remember an unseasoned group winning consistently come the playoffs in the NBA?

 

[easterntimezone]

I had an un-posted ML play on BOS myself. No way I was going to put that one out there...it was a gamble and didn't want any blind tailers losing their $$ on my homer ML.

Well, posted plays now 7-1. Capping FRI games now and I LOVE what I see.:director:

Calls for -

:mj06:

:mj06:

:mj06:

In a row... Nice...

 

[Ace_Ace]

Utah Jazz for the First Quarter - 3 Units


Take 1st qt of a team that is down by any margin in a series when team shifts to another city.


Right now 2 plays.

Lets goooooooooooooo:SIB

Looks like trend is $$ :thumb: :Yep:

 

[Ace_Ace]

First half has been UGLY, but the Lakers are a lot closer than they deserve to be. How is this not a blowout yet?

 

[axp59]

Just wanted to say thank you Ax for all you do for us. I found you a few weeks ago when things weren't going so well and you took a break. Great move. It was difficult not seeing your writeups for a bit but welcome back. So much respect for you. Love your writeups and the time you take to answer all questions. Truely a class act. You have really changed my approach to this stuff. PATIENCE AND DICIPLINE. I wish you continued success.

Thanks pal. Did we know each other from the other side? Love doing this and I don't mind helping those that want to do what I do.
PATIENCE AND DICIPLINE.
I don't think there's a need to spray the board each night. If you have $1k to play for the night and you want to break it up 5 ways for $200 plays, I don't think you're confident about any of your plays. Pick one, put $1K on it and enjoy your night. Win or lose, you know it was a good play. You can't really know yourself as a capper if you spray the board. It's too much to soak in. If you have one play or two, you can do a post-game analysis on your capping. Know why you won or lost and don't make the same mistakes again. My rant FWIW.

 

[axp59]

+1 -> portent of what's to come perhaps in the Portland-Houston series as well?; despite the prodigious (and precocious) play of Rose - he is still a rookie and will be navigating in unfamiliar territory...

And for all of the praise that the Trail Blazers have received, it took a Herculean effort from Roy and his 42 to salvage a victory last game out against Houston.

"There's something about experience. In life, when you don't have it, you think it's overrated. When you have it, it's obviously very, very important."
- Detroit Red Wings coach Mike Babcock

When can you remember an unseasoned group winning consistently come the playoffs in the NBA?

This is a tough game for me to call ETZ. I do think POR is in big trouble but also think playing away from the Rose is a plus. I think the pressure is off. I don't care if they were at home, there was a lot of pressure on that young team. They listened to and read what's being said and written about them. They had a very good record at home and they finished strong. They were expected to perform in front of the home crowd. Now that's out of the way. Back to playing ball. Getting 5.5 is worth a consideration at least.

 

[axp59]

:toast:

Looks like trend is $$ :thumb: :Yep:

:toast:

 

[easterntimezone]

This is a tough game for me to call ETZ. I do think POR is in big trouble but also think playing away from the Rose is a plus. I think the pressure is off. I don't care if they were at home, there was a lot of pressure on that young team. They listened to and read what's being said and written about them. They had a very good record at home and they finished strong. They were expected to perform in front of the home crowd. Now that's out of the way. Back to playing ball. Getting 5.5 is worth a consideration at least.

Can see the vantage point you're advocating Ax - in that the Blazers likely were pressing (and tight) in wanting to perform for their home fans - Outlaw comes to mind immediately.

The consideration is that Portland hasn't really been road warriors and the Rockets minus McGrady may be capable of making a deep run in the playoffs; everyone else is talking about the Lakers (discounting tonight in Utah) and Nuggets given their results thus far - Houston has been under the radar as much as you can be in the playoffs - although Brooks (and Lowry) may be nervous @ home initially, the veteran presence of Scola, Battier, and Yao (Artest less so) are more than ample to steady any frayed nerves. Adelman is no slouch when it comes to coaching and although he's been the subject of ire now and again, knows what it's like to press buttons on a veteran squad (see Sacramento) in the playoffs - Rockets don't want to surrender the advantage gained by wresting a game in Portland.

It is a tough game to give an outright nod to, though - most definitely...

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Thanks pal. Did we know each other from the other side? Love doing this and I don't mind helping those that want to do what I do.
PATIENCE AND DICIPLINE.
I don't think there's a need to spray the board each night. If you have $1k to play for the night and you want to break it up 5 ways for $200 plays, I don't think you're confident about any of your plays. Pick one, put $1K on it and enjoy your night. Win or lose, you know it was a good play. You can't really know yourself as a capper if you spray the board. It's too much to soak in. If you have one play or two, you can do a post-game analysis on your capping. Know why you won or lost and don't make the same mistakes again. My rant FWIW.

this posts have more value than the picks you post!! :thumb:

:00hour

edit:

QUESTION

how does your money management looks like?

 

[axp59]

this posts have more value than the picks you post!! :thumb:

:00hour

edit:

QUESTION

how does your money management looks like?

Thanks Joe. The money management thing is working very well. +11U on posted plays

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Thanks Joe. The money management thing is working very well. +11U on posted plays

great to hear that, but I'm not surprised about that!:142smilie

I thought you could say how much % of your bankroll is 1 Unit or something like that

 

[axp59]

great to hear that, but I'm not surprised about that!:142smilie

I thought you could say how much % of your bankroll is 1 Unit or something like that

1U = 4% of my bankroll

 

[Joe_Vienna]

1U = 4% of my bankroll

thank u sir!

 

[Ace_Ace]

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Utah Jazz - 10:30pm ET on TNT - Lakers lead series 2-0

The scene shifts to Utah where the Jazz are one of the best home teams in the league (33-8). While the Lakers beat the Jazz by an average 11.5 points through two, in both cases LA lost double-digit leads and let Utah hang around with a chance to win. Can the Jazz extend the series to at least five games with a win on Thursday?

Utah did get some good news on Tuesday as Mehmet Okur said he sore hamstring now feels near 80%. Okur missed both game in Los Angeles and is a crucial part of the Jazz' offensive attack. Not only does Mehmet have the size but his outside shot is crucial to Utah's spacing. His status is still up in the air but if he can go, it could be a game changer . . .

Regardless, the Jazz can't let a team hit 18 of their first 21 shots as LA did in Game 2. If the Utah wants to gain any traction in this series, they need to find a way to slow down the Laker offense.

Coach Jerry Sloan and power forward Carlos Boozer were both happy the team climbed back into the game after the onslaught. They just fell short after with a turnover or bad shot attempt.

Meanwhile Coach Phil Jackson wondered if role players like Trevor Ariza and Shannon Brown will be hit shots in Utah like they have in LA. Together they converted 11 of 13 attempts. That's got to fall . . .



Utah will get more fav calls today & will have to limit lakers off poss.

Lakers will be def minded too.

That supports a very good trend I have

Take UNDER for the team total when a team scores more than 100+ pts in two st games.

It maybe close but I think I am on right side here.

UNDER 107.5 lakers Team Total.--- 5 Units


checking on bos -chi team totals

86 Pts by FAKE-SHOW:mj07:

Books gave me Under -- 107.5 :nono:

Trend is $$$$$$$$$ again

+8 Units Today going 2-0

Thx UTAH