I've read a lot of interesting points lately about teams that no longer care and have nothing to play for in the regular season. This is manifested in a slew of meaningless games the final 3 or 4 days, before the playoffs begin. Playoff teams, set in position, do not care. Lousy teams out of the playoffs do not care. Most teams want the season to end, ASAP.
One point of view is that this translates into HIGHER SCORING GAMES. The logic is that there is no incentive to play defense (why put forth the effort?), yet there is incentive to score points (increase scoring averages, earn points in contract negotiations, and so forth). It seems logical to conclude there will be a lot of cheap baskets in the final games of the season.
Trouble is -- this factor is offset by more bench players getting addtional floor time. These second and third stringers are eager to show that they belong in the NBA and will play hard when they are on the court. This can mean lower scoring games, since these players usually have lower shooting percentages, but are still adept enough to play defense.
So, the conclusion is that it is a wash. Once factor cancels out the other.
To prove this, I went back through the final week of the NBA season the last three years. The scoring average of these games is 194.7, which is about two points higher than average. However, this includes a couple of games that went into double overtime and scored 241, and 238 respectively -- so those results are skewed.
The bottom line is -- do NOT justify a play on the OVER (or UNDER for that matter) based on the expectation that defenses will let up and there wil be more scoring. Results over the last three season prove this is not the case.
Hope this is helpful.
-- Nolan Dalla
One point of view is that this translates into HIGHER SCORING GAMES. The logic is that there is no incentive to play defense (why put forth the effort?), yet there is incentive to score points (increase scoring averages, earn points in contract negotiations, and so forth). It seems logical to conclude there will be a lot of cheap baskets in the final games of the season.
Trouble is -- this factor is offset by more bench players getting addtional floor time. These second and third stringers are eager to show that they belong in the NBA and will play hard when they are on the court. This can mean lower scoring games, since these players usually have lower shooting percentages, but are still adept enough to play defense.
So, the conclusion is that it is a wash. Once factor cancels out the other.
To prove this, I went back through the final week of the NBA season the last three years. The scoring average of these games is 194.7, which is about two points higher than average. However, this includes a couple of games that went into double overtime and scored 241, and 238 respectively -- so those results are skewed.
The bottom line is -- do NOT justify a play on the OVER (or UNDER for that matter) based on the expectation that defenses will let up and there wil be more scoring. Results over the last three season prove this is not the case.
Hope this is helpful.
-- Nolan Dalla
