NBA TUE 02223010 - Early Thoughts and Value Hunting

[JBrilman]

Tuesday board is a little bit bigger and thus some more value to be had I suspect. I have a few plays I am looking at but will be back later with them.

Just wanted to get the thread up!

I will say my HOMER PLAY (Lakers) will mostly be in effect tonight. I look for Kobe to avenge the earlier loss in which he let Ron Artest shoot the game winning 3. I had the ML in that game. Ill take the points here.

GS,

Nice to see you on the right side of a MOOSE for a change! That 1/2 came in handy last night!!

 

[sonic2538]

stones

stones

Heavy lean to Pistons U 196 and a small play on Pistons ML bol

 

[BillyBatts]

Leans

Leans

I agree with Sonic, that Pistons under is looking like a possible play.

Other leans
Hornets +11.5 and over 199.5
Wolves +7 and over 191.5
Blazers-Nets under 184


Be back in a bit after some more research

 

[BillyBatts]

Please help

Please help

Heat coming back from a 5 game road trip. Can we get a query how they have done this year and last in this situation?? Thanks in advance. If I remember correctly they played terribly the last time this happened. :shrug:


edit---actually the last time they came home off a 3 day trip, they blew out Houston, but it was the time before that, they were blown out by Bucks, but those were only 3 game road trips

 

[JBrilman]

Heat coming back from a 5 game road trip. Can we get a query how they have done this year and last in this situation?? Thanks in advance. If I remember correctly they played terribly the last time this happened. :shrug:

Could be wrong but I remember someone ran this query earlier this year and teams coming off long road trips don't seem to cover and go under. I could be wrong but that is what I remember...

 

[BillyBatts]

Plays

Plays

Locked in

Hornets +11.5 POD

Feel like the Cavs will still take a little time to gel with Jamison, and line is inflated due to 3 SU losses in a row
Hornets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater
Hornets are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Hornets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.



Lakers -5

LA is 4-0 this year with 3 or more days rest
Grizzlies last 4 home SU losses, have ALL been by 10 + points


Kings-Pistons under 197
Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Sacramento
Under is 8-2 in Pistons last 10 games as an underdog.
Under is 6-2 in Kings last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.




HEAVY LEAN TOWARD SUNS +6.5 :scared
Just think line is inflated due to Nash being out.
Dragic is a pretty decent backup



CBB POD
Gators -2.5 (must win for bubble team and revenge game)

The Gators allow an average 62 ppg at home this year. Tennessee is 3-9-1 ATS this season in games in which it scores less than 75 points. Pearl is 36-66-3 ATS in his career in games where his team tallies fewer than 75 points.

? Florida is 13-3 SU and 14-1-1 ATS in this series when the Gators enter the contest with a win percentage of less than .750 on the season.





Best of luck fellas, let's kill the books today :firing:

 

[Blastyourears]

Can I get some of your thoughts on the Nets and Portland game.. thanks!

 

[BillyBatts]

my 2 cents

my 2 cents

After Portland's collapse the other night, I think they will come out fired up and try to get that memory out of thier head. That being said, 7.5 is a lot on the road, especially after making a long coast to coast trip, and the Nets have actually been playing decent of late so maybe a SLIGHT lean towards the Blazers, but in no way a play.
I think there is some value on the under, and it probably will land like it did last game, I think at the 176 or so mark. Had a pretty strong lean to under, but just liked other plays better. That's just my 2 cents for whatever it's worth. Best of luck to ya, I will be back in a few hours fellas.

 

[barts185]

Heat coming back from a 5 game road trip. Can we get a query how they have done this year and last in this situation?? Thanks in advance. If I remember correctly they played terribly the last time this happened. :shrug:


edit---actually the last time they came home off a 3 day trip, they blew out Houston, but it was the time before that, they were blown out by Bucks, but those were only 3 game road trips

Heat off of a 5 game or longer road trip. Has only happened once so far this year, they blew out Indiana 113-83 as 6.5 point favorites with a total of 205.5


2008
team=Heat and H and p:A and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and season=2008
SU: 1-1 (-4.5)
ATS: 0-2-0 (-7.0) avg line: -2.5
O/U: 1-1-0 (-1.2) avg total: 193.8


2007
team=Heat and H and p:A and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and season=2007
SU: 0-2 (-21.5)
ATS: 0-2-0 (-25.8) avg line: -4.2
O/U: 1-1-0 (12.8) avg total: 195.8



All teams off 5 game or longer road trips

This season

H and p:A and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and season=2009
SU: 15-6 (4.9)
ATS: 8-13-0 (1.5) avg line: -3.4
O/U: 7-14-0 (-7.4) avg total: 200.9


2008
H and p:A and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and season=2008
SU: 22-12 (2.8)
ATS: 17-16-1 (-0.4) avg line: -3.2
O/U: 15-19-0 (-0.8) avg total: 198.3


2007
SU: 21-20 (2.4)
ATS: 17-24-0 (-2.4) avg line: -4.8
O/U: 19-20-2 (0.4) avg total: 199.0


combined since 2007
H and p:A and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and season>=2007
SU: 58-38 (3.1)
ATS: 42-53-1 (-0.8) avg line: -3.9
O/U: 41-53-2 (-1.7) avg total: 199.2



Here is it for EXACTLY a 5 game road trip


2009
H and p:A and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and pppppp:H and season=2009
SU: 8-2 (6.3)
ATS: 4-6-0 (3.8) avg line: -2.5
O/U: 4-6-0 (-6.4) avg total: 202.3


2008
SU: 14-6 (5.7)
ATS: 12-7-1 (2.0) avg line: -3.6
O/U: 8-12-0 (-2.1) avg total: 198.1


2007
SU: 14-12 (2.7)
ATS: 12-14-0 (-1.8) avg line: -4.4
O/U: 14-11-1 (0.9) avg total: 202.0



All teams since 2007
H and p:A and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and pppppp:H and season>=2007

SU: 36-20 (4.4)
ATS: 28-27-1 (0.6) avg line: -3.8
O/U: 26-29-1 (-1.5) avg total: 200.7

 

[sonic2538]

2 items

2 items

Yes I remember reading that a team off long road trip first game home has a hard time covering

Also think it may be alot of points on the road with Portland - 7.5 so best play may be the 1st half Portland. Will want to get out fast after loss the other night and Nets played last night.

 

[40seven]

What do I know

What do I know

I am very frustrated with myself.

I am considering the following plays

The Nets +7 and rising the more the better. Home Dog that is playing better against a team tring to gel and it better soon, with Toronto on tap Wed.

The Griz +6, I know not a popular play here. Kobe will need time to get back into the flow and they play a game Wed that is more important, not that they look past the Griz, but that is a lot of points and the Griz match up well.

The Dubs + points against a bad team at home, they just beat the Hawks and they are getting points.

Keep in mind the Lakers and the 76ers are Morrison plays and that will screw with the lines.

Others Love the Hornets with all those points, I would keep in mind OKC -6 alot of points I know,
oh yea and Nash is out, how about they are just better they won in Phx with Nash. They play no D in Phx, and OKC can score. As for the Total a lot of reverse line movement as with the Sac/Stones Under any way be careful.

I was 1-3 last night so my hot streak is over and a I doubt my self right now.

FYI. If it is not a home dog I am not playing

 

[40seven]

One more item

One more item

The PTB are 2-8 straight up on the first road game after a home game this season. The losses are against teams they should have won many times.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Yesterday: no plays
Total: 2-4

Today:

Lakers @ Grizzlies U199.5 (POD)
Pistons @ Kings O196.5

BOLTA :toast:
Joe

 

[Lumi]

Can I get some of your thoughts on the Nets and Portland game.. thanks!

My thoughts....

They should weld the door of the bus shut amd drive it off a bridge !

Just thinking out loud :shrug:

 

[40seven]

Harsh

Harsh

My thoughts....

They should weld the door of the bus shut amd drive it off a bridge !

Just thinking out loud :shrug:

The Blazers should at least be able to flee to Canada:mj07:

Like Toronto

 

[CoFred]

GS

GS

Hey Bud. In response to your post last night. It's 5-0 since the break if I remember correctly. Awesome job. I cannot thank you enough. Keep up the great work.

:toast:

 

[CUBBOY69]

long road trip

long road trip

***** knicks +9.5 ****** POD CELTS BACK HOME AFTER LONG WEST COAST TRIP ...

 

[grindstone]

Here you boys let's to it again,

NO + 11.5

Let's hope Clev is looking ahead for Boston on Thursday and will keep some gas in the tank. Thursday will be an emotional game for both teams

GLTA

 

[CUBBOY69]

ALSO PLAYING T-WOLVES +7.5

 

[CUBBOY69]

REALLY THINK CAVS MAKE A STATMENT TONIGHT ..AND GET OUT OF THIS FUNK