NBA TUE 033109 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

E

Eagle123

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Mar 18, 2009
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Good morning again Ax.

Still piss off about the last minute play of the GS game.

Hope have a better luck today on the Atl game
 
Philip_Rivers

Philip_Rivers

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Mar 19, 2009
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SAC/NOH

SAC/NOH

2/23/09

SAC 105 NOH 112 (at Arco)

O/U was 204

I saw the last game and CP3 abused the Kings. I don't think much has changed in the Kings defense since then. Maybe this is the game where NOH breaks out of its offensive slump? As a caveat though, I think that this time of the season playoff teams like the Hornets start trying to make an emphasis on better defensive play and playing half-court sets as opposed to run and gun. This is what will win games in the play offs.

FWIW - Vlade Divac's number is being retired at half time. So half time will last about 20-30 minutes.

I'm on the ATL/PHI U Ax. BOL.
 
J

jebaum

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Anyone Know if that big eraser Dalembert is going to play for 76ers?
 
axp59

axp59

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jim844 said:
i'm more a situational capper
i don't really hash numbers and such but i'm just a guy who watches all the games every night regardless of if i bet on them or not and i like to think i've developed a bit of insight from that
of course i do look at numbers when i make a final decision but it's more based on what's goin on around the league with teams/players etc as opposed to just numbers
i'm not sayin the game is goin over
i'm just on the fence and wanted to see what made everyone jump to the under like it was the best shit that hasn't been stepped on
anyone?
Click to expand...

It's no lock by any means and worth no more than any of the other 1000 games already played this season. I jumped on it early because I thought there was value on the number last night. I'm not at all touting this as the POD and to load up on it. It's just one game on a TUE that I felt had the best chance for me personally to make some money on...There may be another game from a situational capper's point of view that may have better value but it's no secret...I am no situational capper. BOL
 
axp59

axp59

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ImNext1000 said:
CHI vs IND 216..that thing is going over

im gonna parlay atl under and chi over

i might buy the points aswell i dotn wanna go thru what happened last night again :mj07:

:mj06: :mj06: :mj06:
Click to expand...

Here's what I posted on the other side regarding the CHI/IND game

Omard,

FWIW and IMHO.

I don't want to sway you either way but I'll give you my take on this game.

The simple trending on this is slightly on the O side. CHI is 22-17 O/U on the road and IND O/U 17-18 at home. This is a wash, the numbers are a just a tiny bit inflated when playing in IND so games tend to fall under the number.

Now on to the meat of stats analysis...what worries be ever so slightly are the numbers against the league. While IND's defense has tightened up ever so slightly of late, every other number I've looked at is well above the league average. Why this is significant...on any given night when an average nba team plays another average nba team, the score will be 100-100. When you have two teams averaging above the 100 mark in both points scored and points allowed, this may spell problems for an under play. Let?s assume the home team dictates here and we?ll give the CHI numbers lesser weight. For the season and against the average NBA team, IND will score and allow 5%+ more. Now add a team that also scores and allows more for the season, we?re already looking at a total of 210+.

Now let?s take into account only H/A stats. Again, IND is consistent here with their numbers but CHI def slacks enough where they give up at the very least 1+ possession score. This puts us at 213+.

Now for what they?ve been doing lately. I?ve mentioned that IND has tightened up their def lately BUT take a look at CHI?s offense. They are averaging nearly 110 in the past 5 games.

In all, the numbers still fall below the current line but I?m not comfortable with the cushion. Maybe I?m just gun shy after that huge moose I experienced on the MEM/GS game last night which I?m still pissed off about since I know I had the right ticket.

Again, please take this into consideration and for what it?s worth from only ONE man?s point of view. I wish you the best of luck with your play and will be rooting for you since I have no action on this game.
 
axp59

axp59

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Philip_Rivers said:
2/23/09

SAC 105 NOH 112 (at Arco)

O/U was 204

I saw the last game and CP3 abused the Kings. I don't think much has changed in the Kings defense since then. Maybe this is the game where NOH breaks out of its offensive slump? As a caveat though, I think that this time of the season playoff teams like the Hornets start trying to make an emphasis on better defensive play and playing half-court sets as opposed to run and gun. This is what will win games in the play offs.

FWIW - Vlade Divac's number is being retired at half time. So half time will last about 20-30 minutes.

I'm on the ATL/PHI U Ax. BOL.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the info Phil_Riv...BOL sir
 
easterntimezone

easterntimezone

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Mar 18, 2009
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kellyindallas said:
Utah's rep is that they play defense under Sloan; however, this hasn't been true the last couple of years.

Their defense has been quite porous and they actually look to run, when they get the chance. This is not the same Utah team of the last 15 years.
Click to expand...

:iagree:

Game has changed = Sloan has changed.

Utah Jazz = Phoenix Suns (D'Antoni)/Golden State Warriors mini-me.
 
JBrilman

JBrilman

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Ax



Sorry about the GS game. At the window I decided not to take the game. Burned 2 times already on GS unders and didnt want it to be a 3rd. Was happy to see it way under heading into the 4th and woke up and saw your MOOSE.


VERY SORRY MY FRIEND.

I am not a fan of teasers normally but anyone like this 5 point teaser? Lakers have a revenge game and are coming off a loss last game. Utah on the road, enough said. New Orleans @ Sac, enough said. ALL are fighting for playoffs or home court advantage and should win and this way no worries on a back door cover with the teaser.

LAL -0.5
POR -1
NO -1.5
 
JCWhy

JCWhy

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Mar 17, 2009
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Indiana
Am I crazy for thinking about making the Jazz/Blazers over my POD?
I think this game hits 200+ :scared
 
easterntimezone

easterntimezone

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JBrilman said:
I am not a fan of teasers normally but anyone like this 5 point teaser? Lakers have a revenge game and are coming off a loss last game. Utah on the road, enough said. New Orleans @ Sac, enough said. ALL are fighting for playoffs or home court advantage and should win and this way no worries on a back door cover with the teaser.

LAL -0.5
POR -1
NO -1.5
Click to expand...

Lakers: :00x15
Portland: :00x15
New Orleans: :0corn

kurby
 
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