NBA TUE 033109 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[Ools]

haven't scouted where they are today yet - but saw this in a covers article:

Unders in games officiated by Marc Davis: Seventy-two percent (25 of 41) of games with Davis on the whistle have stayed under the total, by far the biggest margin of any NBA ref. In contrast, Scott Foster and Joe Crawford are the NBA refs with biggest differential in terms of overs. Games with either Foster or Crawford have gone over the total 67 percent of the time.

Scott Foster in NY game - 221 line - but with 2 big under refs. Others are off

 

[Mindframe913]

Although not as drastic as Utah's metamorphosis, San Antonio is not the defensive juggernaut it once was; the younger players Poppovich is trying to integrate into the system come from offensive backgrounds and should not be deemed to be "lockdown defenders" - as the phrase goes: the game done changed. And two defensive stalwarts in Sloan and Poppovich wouldn't admit it explicitly, but the way their teams currently play quietly suggests that they have given the nod towards offense as well.

Don't buy into the deep-seeded myth that droning telecast personnel continually hammer over and over and over... About defense... 'Cause these teams execute an artificial brand of it at best. And against athletic squads such as Oklahoma City, San Antonio is at a decided disadvantage.

:mj15: -> San Antonio:Oklahoma City

Putting heavy thoughts into taking the thunder tonight +12.5 big. Im thinking Duncan and Geenobes will be well rested tonite too. GL.

 

[axp59]

catch you guys in a few...off to the gym

 

[Eagle123]

it is for me Eagle...good nite

Thanks Ax

BOL to us and see you tomorrow morning.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Man, I must be crazy thinking almost all games going under...


Bobcats chasing playoff, Larry Browns D, Wallace owns Ariza, Bell locking up banged up Kobe. Bobcats 91, Lakers 87

Bibby controlling the ball, Hawks D keeping it tight to the Sixers. Sixers 90, Hawks 95

Pistons doing their strategic, positoning offense, focusing D on 2 major threats. Cavs 82, Pistons 82 (+/- 2 on either side)

With Salmons out, Bulls offense stalling. Can't make all the jumpers all the time. Pacers 105, Bulls 100

Mavs 103, Twolves 88

Spurs 98, OKC 81

Nuggets win and they're in playoffs, Knicks out of gas come third. Nuggets 125, Knicks 101

With the ceremony in halftime, look for this to be two different games in one. Hornets 55-40 first game, Hornets 52-44 second game.


Boozer is too slow for Aldridge, Blake will take back in 3pts alot of what he gives up, this game is pretty much about Brewer keeping the lid on Roy. Leaning Blazers...o/u either way

 

[jlippens]

In reply to Barts about parlaying big ML favourites: looking at the two big ML favourites tonight, Denver -12, SA -13, here is a breakdown:

line<=-12 and 20061030<=date and line>=-13

SU: 131-11 (12.9) 92.25% win pct.

Odds of a two teamer hitting: 85.1%

85.1% reversed, a ML parlay payoff of two 12-13pt favourites, even odds would offer: 14.9%

Using this model, TheGreek is offering Nuggets -1100, Spurs -1400.

$100 ML parlay: payoff: $16.88

$16.88 (actual) > $14.90 (expected)

Is this math good? The sample size is large enough, no? As long as those two check out, and your book is offering positive money and you don't go wild on bet amounts, long term we should bet this and similar situations, no?

 

[VegasAce21]

In reply to Barts about parlaying big ML favourites: looking at the two big ML favourites tonight, Denver -12, SA -13, here is a breakdown:

line<=-12 and 20061030<=date and line>=-13

SU: 131-11 (12.9) 92.25% win pct.

Odds of a two teamer hitting: 85.1%

85.1% reversed, a ML parlay payoff of two 12-13pt favourites, even odds would offer: 14.9%

Using this model, TheGreek is offering Nuggets -1100, Spurs -1400.

$100 ML parlay: payoff: $16.88

$16.88 (actual) > $14.90 (expected)

Is this math good? The sample size is large enough, no? As long as those two check out, and your book is offering positive money and you don't go wild on bet amounts, long term we should bet this and similar situations, no?

risk $100 to win $15?!?!?!?!? esp in NBA? why anyone would ever do such a thing is beyond me. i would rather bet $10 on the other side w a single or parlay play if anything at all...no offense jlipp...

 

[LookKaPyPy]

team=Jazz and P:L and P:site=away and site=away and 20081030<=date

1-4 SUATS (-8.4), 4-1 o/u avg total 203.6, avg score 213.2


team=Trailblazers and P:W and P:site=home and site=home and 20081030<=date

6-2 SU (11.1), 4-4 ATS, 3-5 o/u, avg total 195.9, avg score 194.9

 

[jlippens]

risk $100 to win $15?!?!?!?!? esp in NBA? why anyone would ever do such a thing is beyond me. i would rather bet $10 on the other side w a single or parlay play if anything at all...no offense jlipp...

No offense taken. The reason you'd do it is if the math dictates that it would be profitable. It's just a matter of whether that is the case here.

Yes, crazy shit happens. Math > crazy shit over the long term.

 

[Crockie]

Man, I must be crazy thinking almost all games going under...


Bobcats chasing playoff, Larry Browns D, Wallace owns Ariza, Bell locking up banged up Kobe. Bobcats 91, Lakers 87

Bibby controlling the ball, Hawks D keeping it tight to the Sixers. Sixers 90, Hawks 95

Pistons doing their strategic, positoning offense, focusing D on 2 major threats. Cavs 82, Pistons 82 (+/- 2 on either side)

With Salmons out, Bulls offense stalling. Can't make all the jumpers all the time. Pacers 105, Bulls 100

Mavs 103, Twolves 88

Spurs 98, OKC 81

Nuggets win and they're in playoffs, Knicks out of gas come third. Nuggets 125, Knicks 101

With the ceremony in halftime, look for this to be two different games in one. Hornets 55-40 first game, Hornets 52-44 second game.


Boozer is too slow for Aldridge, Blake will take back in 3pts alot of what he gives up, this game is pretty much about Brewer keeping the lid on Roy. Leaning Blazers...o/u either way

This is my problem today too. I like too many unders :shrug:

 

[bleedingpurple]

I didn't have time to read all of the thread, isn't Iverson starting tonnightagainst Cavs? Shouldn't that increase the point total? Also he plays poor D. Just an observation.

 

[jlippens]

Well, after thinking about it for two seconds, this is at least one issue: instead of including all 12-13 point favourites, instead you need an average of the % of both EXACTLY 12pt and 13 pt favourites. Here are the numbers:

line=-12 and 20061030<=date
SU: 48-5 (90.57%)

line=-13 and 20061030<=date
SU: 43-2 (95.56%)

(90.57+95.56)/2 = 93.06%

93.06% x 2 = 86.6%

Expected payoff % of a two-teamer, one 12pt fav and one 13 pt fav, at even odds: 13.4%

$16.88 (actual) over $13.40 (projected)

*************

Outlying concerns would in my mind be: size of sample (although bigger 12-13 point record helps ease that concern), home/away record (checked it, it's not an issue)...that's about it.

So yeah. As long as you're betting normal unit amounts and you don't mind the small profits, it's correct to bet these, no?

 

[Crockie]

Lines for tomorrow are out :0corn

 

[barts185]

wow, be careful bro. it depends where that albino rhino shows up. i may be hard to recover from that kind of one in a million loss. BOL

I'm thinking more of starting a ML paraly risking 1 unit. So, would take a while to make any money, but if it runs off another 100 winners in a row, even laying 15-1 or 20-1 on each, that would add up pretty nicely. At 20-1, 50 wins would get me a little over 11 units, 15-1 would get me a little over 24 units.

And, as I said, feeling like a degenerate for even mentioning it in the NBA, but I really do feel like the NCAA tournament is a different story.

I know that not all books even offer moneylines once you get above a certain point, but some do, and there are even some that will let you put them in a parlay.

I'm not looking to try to talk anyone into doing this, but if I don't, and it runs off a string of 50 or more, I'll feel way worse than if I lose a unit.

 

[VegasAce21]

I'm thinking more of starting a ML paraly risking 1 unit. So, would take a while to make any money, but if it runs off another 100 winners in a row, even laying 15-1 or 20-1 on each, that would add up pretty nicely. At 20-1, 50 wins would get me a little over 11 units, 15-1 would get me a little over 24 units.

And, as I said, feeling like a degenerate for even mentioning it in the NBA, but I really do feel like the NCAA tournament is a different story.

I know that not all books even offer moneylines once you get above a certain point, but some do, and there are even some that will let you put them in a parlay.

I'm not looking to try to talk anyone into doing this, but if I don't, and it runs off a string of 50 or more, I'll feel way worse than if I lose a unit.

Save your $$$ :toast:

 

[Slicer]

So I'm leaning on these plays tonight:

Mavs -8
Phi/Atl Under 193


Not sure plays:

Lakers -6
Blazers -6
Nuggets/Knicks Over
Hornets -7

 

[coolhandluke]

Boy that 193 on Atl/Phil has been a rock today(as in no movement) does that mean anything to you more experienced cappers???

Thanks in advance!!!

 

[JCWhy]

I have my first 3 play day in the NBA in quite some time:
Jazz/Blazers O192.5
Thunder/Spurs O188
Hawks/76ers U193


I hardly ever play two overs in a week and I'm playing two today :dizzy:

 

[axp59]

Crockie...If you see this...that was the funniest sh!t you posted on the other side...You know what I'm talking about

 

[Crockie]

Ax I'm laughing all the time. These guys are so crazy :mj07: