NBA TUE 102709 early thoughts - value hunting

[axp59]

Well here we are embarking on another NBA season. I welcome your input as always. Tell me I'm off my rockers or agree with me but please tell me why. I value your opinion and learn from it.

I'm currently looking at a couple of potential action. Both are totals obviously. Since the the season is just getting underway, these are merely action plays. It's going to take a little time before I go in full units.

BOS/CLE U187
LAC/LAL O207

I capped my homer play more extensively than the other. This number has dropped significantly from the opening but I think there's still some value left. I like the past OCT numbers for both teams the last few seasons. This is also a marquee match-up in the East.

This action is also based heavily on trending analysis. I'll incorporate some technical analysis once I gather enough data for the current season. As most of you are well aware, I'm not much of a fundamental analyst but I'm adequately verse on the inner workings of the game.

BOLTA

 

[Eagle123]

BOL

 

[cubboy]

glad your back ax ..do you do football

glad your back ax ..do you do football

:00hour

 

[softballmaniac]

Nice to see you back so soon Ax. Hope the room came out perfect and you are getting good use out of it. Big flat screen? :00hour LOL Have a profitable season and thank you for all you do for us!!

 

[logan]

Good to see ya back ax. Looking forward to the season.

 

[Woodson]

Play UNDER BOSTON on the first half total in Road games against Central division opponents
The record is 5 Overs and 22 Unders for the last three seasons (+16.50 units)

:mj06:

 

[CoFred]

Wow

Wow

Oh boy....It's a great sight to see this thread in the Free Throws forum :00hour

Ax, what fraction of a unit would you be playing these? The normal "Ax"tion play of 1/20 Unit?

 

[canuckfan77]

Oh boy....It's a great sight to see this thread in the Free Throws forum :00hour

Agreed. Glad to hear you had a good summer.

Welcome back AX, it's good to see you.

:00x1

 

[pfj]

Well here we are embarking on another NBA season. I welcome your input as always. Tell me I'm off my rockers or agree with me but please tell me why. I value your opinion and learn from it.

I'm currently looking at a couple of potential action. Both are totals obviously. Since the the season is just getting underway, these are merely action plays. It's going to take a little time before I go in full units.

BOS/CLE U187
LAC/LAL O207

I capped my homer play more extensively than the other. This number has dropped significantly from the opening but I think there's still some value left. I like the past OCT numbers for both teams the last few seasons. This is also a marquee match-up in the East.

This action is also based heavily on trending analysis. I'll incorporate some technical analysis once I gather enough data for the current season. As most of you are well aware, I'm not much of a fundamental analyst but I'm adequately verse on the inner workings of the game.

BOLTA

WELCOME BACK. tis the time of year again. im liking the leans but I REALLY like the washington/dallas under 205. Under is 14 out of the last 22 between these 2. :shrug:

 

[easterntimezone]

Ax -

Glad to see your handle once more.

Think the Boston/Cleveland number is attractive given that both teams seemingly try to define themselves on the defensive end and would want to impress as such on opening night of the season.

Parker's addition to the Cleveland roster gives them a legitimate off-the-bench defensive role player who knows his limitations, but always provides an honest effort.

By the way, please get in touch via e-mail when you get a chance.

 

[bleedingpurple]

I can't believe it is time for BB to start up again.. I am waiting a few weeks..

 

[axp59]

I am excited to see all these old handles from the past. Thank you for the heartfelt welcome back. Let's have a great season fellas.

Since pfj actually threw out a play, I'd like to throw in my 2 centavos. Please don't ever let me talk you our of your own action. I do want to throw this out there.

@ 205+ total past 3 seasons

WAS 27-15 OVER Away
DAL 22-14 OVER Home

I'm just guessing like everyone else but I wanted to share that info.

 

[axp59]

CoFred...yes sir...1/20 is good for action plays. it's good enough to get the blood flowing this early in the season.

I can't believe this BOS/CLE number moved so much in a few hours. I though it was stable @ 187. Went out for some drinks and MNF only to come home to 185. What the hell happened? LOL

 

[sportsfan1205]

CoFred...yes sir...1/20 is good for action plays. it's good enough to get the blood flowing this early in the season.

I can't believe this BOS/CLE number moved so much in a few hours. I though it was stable @ 187. Went out for some drinks and MNF only to come home to 185. What the hell happened? LOL

Griffin out 6 weeks broken foot

 

[axp59]

man, that franchise is JINXED

 

[sportsfan1205]

I was lucky enough to get the celts at 187 at one casino and a couple hours later got them at 186 at another...i played the mavs over 205.5 as well wizards to me are basically an east coast west coast team the mavs are back to running and gunning and with marian running the break with kidd many easy lay ups and and one oppurtunities as well as dirk going for 30+ on any given night this mavs team from a totals perspective mirrors their team from 3 years ago where they went over big time to mediocre teams that forced offensive slugfests

 

[HighFlyingKilla]

Looks like the Rockets will be playing small ball this season without Yao.

Without Yao, Adelman wants to be more up-tempo and generate easier shots.

"I haven't seen very many all-out fast-break teams in the NBA," Adelman said. "It's too well-coached and well-scouted. But you can be a very good up-tempo transition team and that's what we want to do. If we can get guys up the court and attack the defense before they're completely set, then we can find things out and we can be successful. We can't just walk it up. We don't have the personnel."

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Best of luck people, the action is a go :00hour

 

[Slicer]

Welcome back Ax, should be a great year, look forward to making money this year.

 

[trap]

CoFred...yes sir...1/20 is good for action plays. it's good enough to get the blood flowing this early in the season.

I can't believe this BOS/CLE number moved so much in a few hours. I though it was stable @ 187. Went out for some drinks and MNF only to come home to 185. What the hell happened? LOL

Back up 186.5 hmmmm!