NBA TUE 110309 early thoughts - value hunting
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
thanx ax for the cippers play, ended up throwing them in a parlay with atl, greatly appreciated my friend, and to all of you great cappers out there
The two plays that caught my eye today were Milwaukee +8.5 and Dallas -5.5. Any thoughts on either? I really think we can get value on this Milwaukee team right now. I can share some more of my game notes in a bit, just wanted to get some thoughts flowin early kurby
- Mar 18, 2009
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Hey Ax, glad you're back my friend. :00hour It's been quite a long time since I've been on.
Locked last night
DEN -4 (missed the 3.5 that was around for a few minutes), would still lay the 5/5.5 that's out there now, but after that pass.
MIA -3
looking for feedback on
ORL/DET under
CHI (too high probably)
ATL/POR under
Good Luck,
Bart
DEN -4 (missed the 3.5 that was around for a few minutes), would still lay the 5/5.5 that's out there now, but after that pass.
MIA -3
looking for feedback on
ORL/DET under
CHI (too high probably)
ATL/POR under
Good Luck,
Bart
I've been real impressed with Jennings thus far, and think he is a lesser developed version of Derrick Rose. That will be a fun game to keep track of tonight. However, while the roster looks pathetic by many NBA followers' standards, Milwaukee is actually getting productive play from their "scrubs." Bogut and Warrick can actually score in the paint, although Bogut has struggled early. Charlie Bell will probably play 30+ minutes in Redd's absence, and while I hate that prospect on most fronts, against John Salmons, I actually think he can have some success.
This line will probably get up to 9 or 9.5, and if it hits 9.5 or even 10, I think this could be a very good value play.
This line will probably get up to 9 or 9.5, and if it hits 9.5 or even 10, I think this could be a very good value play.
- Mar 18, 2009
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The Jazz at -5.5 is jumping out at me, but the problem is that I'm certain that it's jumping out at everyone else as well.
Dallas beat the Lakers so everyone is taking notice, while Utah just got embarrassed at home by Houston.
I get the feeling that this Mavs team likes playing with each other and they are showing increased intensity on the defensive side of the ball. One reason why I think the Mavs will win the game is they lost their home opener and will want to have a better showing.
On the flip side, that Utah team has to be getting their ass kicked by Jerry Sloan. Their defensive effort was really bad against Houston last night.
Does anyone have any #'s on how Utah responds after a straight up home loss after being a favorite of 5 or more?
Right now, I'm thinking U 202 and maybe parlaying the Dallas ML to it.
Dallas beat the Lakers so everyone is taking notice, while Utah just got embarrassed at home by Houston.
I get the feeling that this Mavs team likes playing with each other and they are showing increased intensity on the defensive side of the ball. One reason why I think the Mavs will win the game is they lost their home opener and will want to have a better showing.
On the flip side, that Utah team has to be getting their ass kicked by Jerry Sloan. Their defensive effort was really bad against Houston last night.
Does anyone have any #'s on how Utah responds after a straight up home loss after being a favorite of 5 or more?
Right now, I'm thinking U 202 and maybe parlaying the Dallas ML to it.
I have a very heavy lean on this but IMHO, there are better values on the board. I'm still looking.
Wash +11.5 . Cleveland's still having problems getting Shaq & the other new starters to jell w/ the team. Washington's looking better this year than last. This Cleveland team isn't going 40-1 @ home.
You didn't miss much this past week granpa...just about +7 action units. :mj07:
always good to see you sir.
My initial lean was the other way in this game. Cleveland finally has all of their pieces back, and Mo Williams looked like his old self on saturday. It took them a few games to get the pieces working, but i think they win this one handily. The line seems high, and imho its begging for money on the Wiz. Vegas knows the public is acknowledging this new and improved wizards team. I had capped it (and please be aware i havent been doing this for as long as some of the big boys here *cough ax cough*) somewhere in the neighborhood of 101-84.
just my 2 cents, would love to hear other opinions.
Wow was UT bad last night - played the first half and layed off the game. Not sure if it was HOU that impressed me or UT that is just plain bad right now. Budinger could be the steal of the draft. I am not sure how you could back UT at all aftet that seond half display.
For similar reasons to liking NYK last night, I like MIA -3. Playing decent D (played great D against NYK in Gm 1) and playing a team that hasnt shown great defensive focus in PHO thus far especially in their one road game at the Clip.
But I seem to recall that PHO plays well at MIA (maybe that was in Shaq's short stay).
Also leaning to POR. Line is telling me something as well as the defensive focus from them Sun day night and their strong defensive play in both home games to date.
Pistol
For similar reasons to liking NYK last night, I like MIA -3. Playing decent D (played great D against NYK in Gm 1) and playing a team that hasnt shown great defensive focus in PHO thus far especially in their one road game at the Clip.
But I seem to recall that PHO plays well at MIA (maybe that was in Shaq's short stay).
Also leaning to POR. Line is telling me something as well as the defensive focus from them Sun day night and their strong defensive play in both home games to date.
Pistol
While I'm on the other side of this game pk, I must agree that even @ +8.5, the value is on MIL here. decent double digit value.
Well, this means I'm out of this game. I cap CHI to cover but all the value is on getting the 8.5.
FYI: betting the BULLS -8.5 is ($21.48) negative value.
I'm personally going to pass here.
