My early leans in order:
Cleveland -11.5 Denver -6.5
Atlanta Under 179.5
Dallas Under 206
nothing locked yet
BOL
Cleveland -11.5 Denver -6.5
Atlanta Under 179.5
Dallas Under 206
nothing locked yet
BOL
NBA TUE Cinco de Mayo 050509 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
hey Ax.
i like Den and i see that # getting to 7 by Mon. A.M. and maybe 7.5 by gametime.
consensus across the street is 57% Den.
a 75%+ would be the only thing to scare me off this game (or other signs of overconfidence).
why the switch to the under?
i know FG% was high, but 3pt % should rise, and i see the game playing out like the last 3 quarters; not the 1Q.
either way i like the side enough that i dont think i need to mess with the total (once again, though, i dont do totals; but in the playoffs i do try to picture pace/style)
BOL all
i like Den and i see that # getting to 7 by Mon. A.M. and maybe 7.5 by gametime.
consensus across the street is 57% Den.
a 75%+ would be the only thing to scare me off this game (or other signs of overconfidence).
why the switch to the under?
i know FG% was high, but 3pt % should rise, and i see the game playing out like the last 3 quarters; not the 1Q.
either way i like the side enough that i dont think i need to mess with the total (once again, though, i dont do totals; but in the playoffs i do try to picture pace/style)
BOL all
Homer Warning!!!
Cavs will have to knock the rust off in the first Qtr so I see it being pretty tight in the 1st qtr. But then hit it big in the 2nd qtr to be up at the half by 6-8 pts. Problem is Cavs 3rd has been weak at times and I think it will be the same on this night. But then explode in the 4th after a good a$$ chewing:director: from Brown before the qtr starts. Most of the time I have to look hard at a game in the playoffs to lay 10 or more points but I'm not going to look to hard at this one. Cavs have been preparing for this team for a week and will be ready for them Tues night to send that message back to the West (Lakers).:00hour
Cavs will have to knock the rust off in the first Qtr so I see it being pretty tight in the 1st qtr. But then hit it big in the 2nd qtr to be up at the half by 6-8 pts. Problem is Cavs 3rd has been weak at times and I think it will be the same on this night. But then explode in the 4th after a good a$$ chewing:director: from Brown before the qtr starts. Most of the time I have to look hard at a game in the playoffs to lay 10 or more points but I'm not going to look to hard at this one. Cavs have been preparing for this team for a week and will be ready for them Tues night to send that message back to the West (Lakers).:00hour
Locked DEN.
The under is at the bottom of my list. It's going to be a NO PLAY for me with this total. I do see your point but something tells me DAL wants to and CAN slow this down. I'm going to lay off and watch the second game and see if I can spot some things that will help with the rest of the series. BOL
- Mar 18, 2009
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Agree completely w/ G8 here - long layoff usually spells rust and a lack of precision... Although the Hawks have occasionally given the Cavs fits in the ATL, Cleveland should be able to wrest the game away handily by the end...
ETZ, haven't heard much from you lately. Hope you're turning a profit this post-season! BOL sir.
- Mar 18, 2009
- 375
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Trying to pick spots here and there (like the Nuggets in game 4 of last series against the Hornets when they were +125 dogs) Ax - likely will be contributing more since pretenders have been ousted and better able to size up matchups and count on an honest effort more often than not given the stakes.
Also been spending time honing MLB angles and the like - when DC was clamoring for a team, not sure if the patrons there envisioned what they were in for when they finally imported the Expos. Anticipate that May will be a very telling month for certain squads like the Jays who will be facing intradvision play.
Good to hear ETZ, Let me know how I can help if needed. Been fortunate this NBA season where regular season play hit upper 60% and playoffs holding steady @72%. We both know regression is around the corner so I understand picking spots. I am often tempting to play all picks. If I did play all picks for the playoffs, the 'routine' is 62.2% side and 63% total. Scares the shit out of me brother. I'm a numbers guy so regression is always on my mind. It doesn't get any easier from here.
Just heard this in the dealership.
This from ESPN:
The NBA will announce LeBron James as its MVP on Monday, The Plain Dealer of Cleveland and The Associated Press have reported, citing unnamed sources.
A day before the Cleveland Cavaliers begin their second-round series against the Atlanta Hawks, the league will anoint James, 24.
The announcement will be made at James' alma mater, St. Vincent-St. Mary High School in Akron, Ohio, the reports said. The Cavaliers called a news conference for 4 p.m. ET but didn't specify the nature of the event. His Cavaliers teammates were expected to attend.
St. V's is right in our back yard literally so I'm going to try and get over there and see what's going on. Watch that Cavs line move now.lol:mj07:
This from ESPN:
The NBA will announce LeBron James as its MVP on Monday, The Plain Dealer of Cleveland and The Associated Press have reported, citing unnamed sources.
A day before the Cleveland Cavaliers begin their second-round series against the Atlanta Hawks, the league will anoint James, 24.
The announcement will be made at James' alma mater, St. Vincent-St. Mary High School in Akron, Ohio, the reports said. The Cavaliers called a news conference for 4 p.m. ET but didn't specify the nature of the event. His Cavaliers teammates were expected to attend.
St. V's is right in our back yard literally so I'm going to try and get over there and see what's going on. Watch that Cavs line move now.lol:mj07:
I take everything back what I posted about the over, made a mistake and happy I noticed it. Won't touch it too.
I guess the under will be the only play for me :0corn
Accuscore Tuesday:
Cavs 14.5 and 176.5
Nuggets 3.4 and 207.6
Playoff Record for Accuscore:
Sides 19-26-2
Totals: 30-17-1
Cavs 14.5 and 176.5
Nuggets 3.4 and 207.6
Playoff Record for Accuscore:
Sides 19-26-2
Totals: 30-17-1
