NBA Tues 121509 early thoughts - value hunting

[grindstone]

So far this is what I"m leaning towards

SA + 3

NYK + 5

That's all I got so far

AX Sent you an email. Grazie :toast:

 

[axp59]

I'm not seeing the under GS. Do you have a 10 for this game?

 

[grindstone]

I'm not seeing the under GS. Do you have a 10 for this game?

Yes sir under by 10

LAL 99 - CHI 85

:shrug:

 

[axp59]

GS,
Your not seeing conflict on the left?
Over
Under
Over
Under
Over
Under

 

[grindstone]

GS,
Your not seeing conflict on the left?
Over
Under
Over
Under
Over
Under

Sorry my bad Sir, your right cancel that game

 

[grindstone]

Edited my first post

Maybe I was trying to pull a Chump across the street :mj07:

Sorry my bad Thanks alot Sir

 

[axp59]

ok,

looks like we're on the same page.

I see early money on CHA but I'm not sure it's going to move the number. I'm afraid some sharp action is going to move this the other way quickly to 4.5

I'm thinking we can get a better number on SAS but this is only a lean for me.

You planning on locking anything tonight GS?

 

[axp59]

Edited my first post

Maybe I was trying to pull a Chump across the street :mj07:

Sorry my bad Thanks alot Sir

:142smilie :mj07: :142smilie :mj07:

 

[grindstone]

ok,

looks like we're on the same page.

I see early money on CHA but I'm not sure it's going to move the number. I'm afraid some sharp action is going to move this the other way quickly to 4.5

I'm thinking we can get a better number on SAS but this is only a lean for me.

You planning on locking anything tonight GS?

Probably not unless you really like something

 

[grindstone]

ok,

looks like we're on the same page.

I see early money on CHA but I'm not sure it's going to move the number. I'm afraid some sharp action is going to move this the other way quickly to 4.5

I'm thinking we can get a better number on SAS but this is only a lean for me.

You planning on locking anything tonight GS?

SA has an above avg offence and also a better defence than PHX. SA has the better bench and defence will be the deciding factor in this game in my opinion. PHX is still looking for there 1st Home loss.

 

[axp59]

I agree bench play is important here. I can't believe the kind of numbers I'm seeing. Ok, here's the million dollar question. What will cause SAS to rely on their bench. Old legs?

you can count on PHO to give up 105 but can SAS really score 105. Lately, yes but they're not historically that 105 team. On the other hand, SAS will do everything it can to keep you under 100. Can they do it on the road against PHO?

3 is tight, maybe wait for some PHO backers to move this.

just a tought

 

[grindstone]

I agree bench play is important here. I can't believe the kind of numbers I'm seeing. Ok, here's the million dollar question. What will cause SAS to rely on their bench. Old legs?

you can count on PHO to give up 105 but can SAS really score 105. Lately, yes but they're not historically that 105 team. On the other hand, SAS will do everything it can to keep you under 100. Can they do it on the road against PHO?

3 is tight, maybe wait for some PHO backers to move this.

just a tought

Totally agree we will wait and see.

Check your email Sir

 

[Macgruder23]

Im seeing value in SA/Pho under 209.5 have it capped at 203-- any thoughts on this Ax/GS?

 

[axp59]

I sent you my personal capping sheets.

4-1 tonight. Man, I'm taking the day off. :nono: I'm like almost 90% on my dog plays this season.

 

[axp59]

Im seeing value in SA/Pho under 209.5 have it capped at 203-- any thoughts on this Ax/GS?

Mac,
my 2 cents on this. I see this number as very tight only because of where they are playing. This makes me give more weight to PHO controlling the tempo of the game and if that's the case, it could be cutting it close. May be more value on the board tomorrow as the other numbers comes out. Were you thinking of locking this tonight?

 

[Macgruder23]

I was considering you think it might go up? Im really looking at last 2 years--only one game has gone over 209.5-- the others are at least 8 pts short. The game that went over there were 69 FT attempts- I heard this from you-- Bet the norm not the exception..LOL:SIB


Date Teams Score Line Result Half FGM-A Pct FGM-A Pct FTM-A Pct Tot. OFF TO
03/08/2009 PHOENIX 98 217.5 Under 45 40-90 44.4% 8-18 44.4% 10-13 76.9% 46 7 8
SAN ANTONIO 103 -4.5 SU ATS 58 38-76 50.0% 8-23 34.8% 19-27 70.4% 53 7 10
01/29/2009 SAN ANTONIO 114 199 SU ATS 57 35-76 46.1% 6-19 31.6% 38-44 86.4% 52 10 6
PHOENIX 104 -2 Over 57 40-81 49.4% 4-7 57.1% 20-25 80.0% 41 6 7
12/25/2008 SAN ANTONIO 91 201.5 SU ATS 39 38-91 41.8% 6-17 35.3% 9-14 64.3% 50 7 6
PHOENIX 90 -3 Under 45 34-75 45.3% 3-11 27.3% 19-27 70.4% 57 8 14
10/29/2008 PHOENIX 103 -1 SU ATS 49 39-79 49.4% 6-15 40.0% 19-27 70.4% 50 9 10
SAN ANTONIO 98 185 Over 46 40-80 50.0% 5-15 33.3% 13-19 68.4% 44 7 7

 

[axp59]

good point Mac. I think this may have peaked @210.5 I just see the public loving the under in this game for obvious reasons. Trend cappers will see Under written all over this game. I don't have a call on this play, I just think it's too tight too call. I can't see betting the over and I can't see betting the under.

With that said bro, go with your gut. I know you are loving the under so here's a challenge for you. find every reason in the world why this game goes over. If you still feel the same way, you gotta go with it.

bol Mac

 

[axp59]

here's a trend to support your play BUT play close attention to the average final score

team=Suns and season=2009 and site=home
and total>=210 and 100.*Average(oooints<ooints@o:team
and o:season and o:season=season)>50

 

[Macgruder23]

Thanks for the assistance--Im locking in under 210.5 - for alittle more than half of average bet. If the line follows what u believe and drops I can always get off it -- :0corn

 

[axp59]

Thanks for the assistance--Im locking in under 210.5 - for alittle more than half of average bet. If the line follows what u believe and drops I can always get off it -- :0corn

glad i didn't talk you out of your play Mac. BOL bro