CONSENSUS IS ON TORONTO BATTS
Toronto vs. Miami - Tuesday, December 15, 2009
[Toronto] 61.04% VS. 38.96% [Miami]
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NBA Tues 121509 early thoughts - value hunting
- Thread starter grindstone
- Start date
CONSENSUS IS ON TORONTO BATTS
Toronto vs. Miami - Tuesday, December 15, 2009
[Toronto] 61.04% VS. 38.96% [Miami]
- Mar 18, 2009
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DET/HOU
DET/HOU
Looks like the right time to fade detroit here...5 straight covers, 6-0-1 last 7...and the team is under .500?? Line-up changes coming with guys getting healthy too...
Can someone run a query on teams under .500 covering 6 straight?
DET/HOU
Looks like the right time to fade detroit here...5 straight covers, 6-0-1 last 7...and the team is under .500?? Line-up changes coming with guys getting healthy too...
Can someone run a query on teams under .500 covering 6 straight?
Final Card
Knicks @ Bobcats O197.5
Raptors @ Heat U206
Pistons @ Rockets O189
BOL :mj06:
Joe
Knicks @ Bobcats O197.5
Raptors @ Heat U206
Pistons @ Rockets O189
BOL :mj06:
Joe
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I personally wouldn't bet against DET. ATS numbers for streaking teams is positive both at 5 and greater than 5; even if their next game is against a .500+ team. I have no opinion right now on the side.
- Mar 18, 2009
- 418
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Joe - ballsy call - calling piston/rockets game right on 189!!:142smilie :mj07:
FOR THOSE OF YOU THINKING OF BACKING THE LAKERS!!! HERE IS A NICE READ (I DID NOT WRITE IT)
AS A WISE MAN ONCE SAID (AX) I AM NOT SELLING ANYTHING HERE (YET)
The Lakers take to the road tonight and will face the staggering Bulls in Chicago. Thus far, the Lakers have only played five road games all year and are a very "human" 3-2 SU in those games.
The Bulls actually started their current slide November 19th against the Lakers (that game featured Pau Gasol return to the Laker line-up.) The Bulls lost that night at the Staple Center 108-93 and since then the Bulls are a horrid 2-10 SU.
The good news tonight, for the Bulls, is that their recent play isn't 100% reflective of their talent level or ability to win. One reason is that Bulls have been severely bitten by the injury bug. Although they weren't the biggest names in basketball, guys like Kirk Heinrich and Tyrese Thomas who are the heart of the Bulls defense have been on the sidelines most of the bad streak. The bad streak, by the way, is really a defensive situation, it hasn't been the Bulls ability to get shot attempts, but more their ability to get stops.
Tonight I think the Bulls have a few things going for them that make +10 points at home a real bargain. The first is the revenge factor. Revenge actually in this situation is not what it seems, its more of the Laker's coming in overconfident from the first win...much more then the Bulls wanting to avenge it.
The Laker's who have to play tomorrow night Milwaukee, will likely be happy just to win tonight and rest players tonight ,in order to save energy to hang with an up-tempo Michael Redd led team tomorrow (a place the Laker's have struggled to play well the past few years.) Phil Jackson is notorious for pulling starters in the second half and giving his second team extended playing time (which usually leads the dog getting the game to a respectable final number.) The Lakers are 1-4 ATS their last 5 on the road.
The Bulls last 5 games have yielded higher points against then usual which could be expected without Hinrich in the line-up. However, these numbers could have been expected regardless playing the likes of Golden State (overtime), Atlanta, Toronto and Boston.
Hinrich finally has a game back under his belt and will be back ay 100% tonight. The Laker's on the other hand will be playing with Kobe (broken Finger and coming off an illness, that reportedly may have been H1N1) and Luke Walton.
Tonight Phil Jackson will make sure that Kobe is healthy above all, if the game is 10+ in the fourth Kobe will sit (they need this guy for the whole season so Phil won't chance it.) Kobe's finger and energy level (from illness will certainly) slow the games tempo as well keeping the Lakers score lower, something the Bulls need desperately. The lower the score the bigger +10 becomes.
The Bulls have averaged over 90 FG attempts their last 3 games and at this pace will put up too many points not to cover againist a Laker team coming in knowing they won the first match-up, trying to conserve Kobe and having to play B2b. The Bulls will be flat out hungry in front of an always sold out crowd when LA comes to town.
It will be all Bulls energy and they will cover tonight against LA and perhaps make LA 3-3 SU on the road this year.
AS A WISE MAN ONCE SAID (AX) I AM NOT SELLING ANYTHING HERE (YET)
The Lakers take to the road tonight and will face the staggering Bulls in Chicago. Thus far, the Lakers have only played five road games all year and are a very "human" 3-2 SU in those games.
The Bulls actually started their current slide November 19th against the Lakers (that game featured Pau Gasol return to the Laker line-up.) The Bulls lost that night at the Staple Center 108-93 and since then the Bulls are a horrid 2-10 SU.
The good news tonight, for the Bulls, is that their recent play isn't 100% reflective of their talent level or ability to win. One reason is that Bulls have been severely bitten by the injury bug. Although they weren't the biggest names in basketball, guys like Kirk Heinrich and Tyrese Thomas who are the heart of the Bulls defense have been on the sidelines most of the bad streak. The bad streak, by the way, is really a defensive situation, it hasn't been the Bulls ability to get shot attempts, but more their ability to get stops.
Tonight I think the Bulls have a few things going for them that make +10 points at home a real bargain. The first is the revenge factor. Revenge actually in this situation is not what it seems, its more of the Laker's coming in overconfident from the first win...much more then the Bulls wanting to avenge it.
The Laker's who have to play tomorrow night Milwaukee, will likely be happy just to win tonight and rest players tonight ,in order to save energy to hang with an up-tempo Michael Redd led team tomorrow (a place the Laker's have struggled to play well the past few years.) Phil Jackson is notorious for pulling starters in the second half and giving his second team extended playing time (which usually leads the dog getting the game to a respectable final number.) The Lakers are 1-4 ATS their last 5 on the road.
The Bulls last 5 games have yielded higher points against then usual which could be expected without Hinrich in the line-up. However, these numbers could have been expected regardless playing the likes of Golden State (overtime), Atlanta, Toronto and Boston.
Hinrich finally has a game back under his belt and will be back ay 100% tonight. The Laker's on the other hand will be playing with Kobe (broken Finger and coming off an illness, that reportedly may have been H1N1) and Luke Walton.
Tonight Phil Jackson will make sure that Kobe is healthy above all, if the game is 10+ in the fourth Kobe will sit (they need this guy for the whole season so Phil won't chance it.) Kobe's finger and energy level (from illness will certainly) slow the games tempo as well keeping the Lakers score lower, something the Bulls need desperately. The lower the score the bigger +10 becomes.
The Bulls have averaged over 90 FG attempts their last 3 games and at this pace will put up too many points not to cover againist a Laker team coming in knowing they won the first match-up, trying to conserve Kobe and having to play B2b. The Bulls will be flat out hungry in front of an always sold out crowd when LA comes to town.
It will be all Bulls energy and they will cover tonight against LA and perhaps make LA 3-3 SU on the road this year.
JB well said
JB well said
The Bulls play fits my #1 system and if they had played decent in the last few games i would be all over them.
Still Thinking, but this is helpful for a small play
JB well said
The Bulls play fits my #1 system and if they had played decent in the last few games i would be all over them.
Still Thinking, but this is helpful for a small play
- Mar 18, 2009
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Hey AX first of all and most important how is your :mj23:
Good evening Sir and to all you handicappers
Good evening Sir and to all you handicappers
My early card tonight...
My early card tonight...
CAVS Under 197 ** DOUBLE PLAY **
NYK OVER 196 ** DOUBLE PLAY **
NYK TEAM TOTAL OVER 96 *** TRIPLE PLAY ***
MIAMI Under 206 ** DOUBLE PLAY **
CAVS have held "bad" teams to under 100 consistently, under 90 often. They win by double digits, not sure they cover, but this one ends 185 or so.
NYK and CHAR both playing better (Chat at home that is!) and both can score. Not a lot of defense to be played here. KNICKS will get to 100 with ease...
MIAMI is hobbled, and TOR has actually been able to play some defense with CALDERON out. IF MIAMI is to cover this number, it WILL be by holding TOR Under 100 I believe...
Best of Luck to All and cya at HT! :SIB
My early card tonight...
CAVS Under 197 ** DOUBLE PLAY **
NYK OVER 196 ** DOUBLE PLAY **
NYK TEAM TOTAL OVER 96 *** TRIPLE PLAY ***
MIAMI Under 206 ** DOUBLE PLAY **
CAVS have held "bad" teams to under 100 consistently, under 90 often. They win by double digits, not sure they cover, but this one ends 185 or so.
NYK and CHAR both playing better (Chat at home that is!) and both can score. Not a lot of defense to be played here. KNICKS will get to 100 with ease...
MIAMI is hobbled, and TOR has actually been able to play some defense with CALDERON out. IF MIAMI is to cover this number, it WILL be by holding TOR Under 100 I believe...
Best of Luck to All and cya at HT! :SIB
Plays
Plays
Just
adlock: these in a few minutes ago.
Suns -1.5The Suns recent struggles have been due to a brutal road stretch against prime competition. They return home where they are 8-0 this year, and will eventually wear down the older Spurs tonight. The Spurs last 3 wins, have come against teams with sub .500 records.
Spurs are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
Spurs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog
Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games
Suns are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400
Bobcats -5
The Knicks have lost 3 straight in this series, and after having 3 days off, think they may come innto tonight a little slugish. The Bobs play much better at home, and almost won at Dallas the other night, even after commiting 20 turnovers. They will control the pace tonight and I look for an 8-10 point win.
Bobcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400
Bobcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5
Rockets over 189The Rockets have went under 8 straight games, and I think the oddsmakers have adjusted too much tonight. With the retuen of Rip, and maybe Gordon seeing some minutes, I look for an up tempo type game.
Only 2 times this year has a total been set this low for a Rockets game, BOTH times they went over by at least 10 points.
Best of luck tonight fellas, hope we crush the books. :00x1
Plays
Just
adlock: these in a few minutes ago.Suns -1.5The Suns recent struggles have been due to a brutal road stretch against prime competition. They return home where they are 8-0 this year, and will eventually wear down the older Spurs tonight. The Spurs last 3 wins, have come against teams with sub .500 records.
Spurs are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
Spurs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog
Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games
Suns are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400
Bobcats -5
The Knicks have lost 3 straight in this series, and after having 3 days off, think they may come innto tonight a little slugish. The Bobs play much better at home, and almost won at Dallas the other night, even after commiting 20 turnovers. They will control the pace tonight and I look for an 8-10 point win.
Bobcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400
Bobcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5
Rockets over 189The Rockets have went under 8 straight games, and I think the oddsmakers have adjusted too much tonight. With the retuen of Rip, and maybe Gordon seeing some minutes, I look for an up tempo type game.
Only 2 times this year has a total been set this low for a Rockets game, BOTH times they went over by at least 10 points.
Best of luck tonight fellas, hope we crush the books. :00x1
here's a trend to support your play BUT play close attention to the average final score
team=Suns and season=2009 and site=home and total>=210 and 100.*Average(oo
and o:season and o:season=season)>50
There's a typo in there somehwere, at least it's not working for me
Possibly this?
team=Suns and season=2009 and site=home and total>=210 and 100.* Average(oo
oints and o:season)>50 