NBA WED 02032010-Early Thoughts and Value Hunting
- Thread starter Joe_Vienna
- Start date
Busy Day
Busy Day
I wont be able to get back on until later this afternoon, but the only thing that looks good at the moment for me is, I agree with Joe on the Hornets over, and I also like the Bobs getting the pts. Have a good day fellas, I will check back later.
Busy Day
I wont be able to get back on until later this afternoon, but the only thing that looks good at the moment for me is, I agree with Joe on the Hornets over, and I also like the Bobs getting the pts. Have a good day fellas, I will check back later.
Good Morning
Good Morning
Early Leans are a little different
Bob's +8 possible POD
LAL/Bob's over, I agree
OKC/NOH looks too me like an Under oops:shrug:
More later
Good Morning
Early Leans are a little different
Bob's +8 possible POD
LAL/Bob's over, I agree
OKC/NOH looks too me like an Under oops:shrug:
More later
- Mar 18, 2009
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Didn't we have a pretty strong query yesterday for the Lakers scenario -- teams back from long road trip were pretty good straight up if I remember correctly...but avg vs spread??
- Mar 18, 2009
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College level -- trying to smell out the strong dogs with all the points everywhere to decent/ok teams:
Penn St +14.5 @ OH St
Pitt +10.5 @ WV
NC Wilm +10.5 vs VCU
Dusquene +13 @ Temple
Mass +7.5 vs Xavier
N Ill +13.5 @ Akron
Iowa St +11 @ Baylor
Tex AM +9.5 @ Mizz
Wyoming +8 vs UNLV (POD potential)
Idaho +16 @ Ut St
Has to be 2 or 3 live dogs in these lines.
Penn St +14.5 @ OH St
Pitt +10.5 @ WV
NC Wilm +10.5 vs VCU
Dusquene +13 @ Temple
Mass +7.5 vs Xavier
N Ill +13.5 @ Akron
Iowa St +11 @ Baylor
Tex AM +9.5 @ Mizz
Wyoming +8 vs UNLV (POD potential)
Idaho +16 @ Ut St
Has to be 2 or 3 live dogs in these lines.
Just a little more
Just a little more
Going against the trends.....
The Celtics -6, the Heat wither against good D:mj07: .
The Kings as Home Dogs +4.
Really think these two have strong potential.
Ools one more dog what about Houston +7?
Just a little more
Going against the trends.....
The Celtics -6, the Heat wither against good D:mj07: .
The Kings as Home Dogs +4.
Really think these two have strong potential.
Ools one more dog what about Houston +7?
This is it
This is it
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slicer View Post
Saw this on ESPN Preview, can someone run the ATS # on this factoid?
"Teams that have just completed a road trip of five games or longer are a staggering 14-3 in their first home game, and Chicago's already done so once -- beating Detroit on Dec. 2 after its six-game "circus" trip."
14-3 SU, only 8-9 ATS
p:A and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and H and season=2009
SU: 14-3 (7.6)
ATS: 8-9-0 (4.8) avg line: -2.9
O/U: 5-12-0 (-7.6) avg total: 202.5
The one last night made it 14-4 and 8-10
This is it
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slicer View Post
Saw this on ESPN Preview, can someone run the ATS # on this factoid?
"Teams that have just completed a road trip of five games or longer are a staggering 14-3 in their first home game, and Chicago's already done so once -- beating Detroit on Dec. 2 after its six-game "circus" trip."
14-3 SU, only 8-9 ATS
p:A and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and H and season=2009
SU: 14-3 (7.6)
ATS: 8-9-0 (4.8) avg line: -2.9
O/U: 5-12-0 (-7.6) avg total: 202.5
The one last night made it 14-4 and 8-10
I like these plays today!
I like these plays today!
ATL -9.5 & ATL FH -5 - Hawks are a very good team and played a great game last night only to come up a little short on the road. They should be able to dominate the Clippers in all walks of life tonight. If the Hawks get out and break this game will be over early. I am not sure who is gonna guard Josh Smith as he will dunk all over Butler and blow right by Camby. I look for him to have a BIG game 27/10 type numbers. I also look for Crawford to have a big impact off the bench tonight.
OKC -2 - The Thunder have struggled in years past for a variety of reasons against the Hornets. CP3 being one of them and not enough depth being another. OKC has lots of momentum right now winning 3 straight and 6 of their last 10 and all 4 losses being close losses I think they are hitting there stride. Durant finally has enough help to get this team over the hump. West is the only match-up problem for OKC but I like Jeff Green and think he is a scrappy defender. Another angle I like here is Westbrook is a big PG who will take Collison in the post and also has seen him plenty in their days together at UCLA. Sefolosha is a lock down defender and I dont see Thorton getting many points tonight or Peja trying to shoot over a 6'9" Durantula.
I don't mind that either of these teams are on B2B as both have fared well the Hawks in this exact situation a b2b with the tail end being at home after being away are 2-0 SU and ATS this year, while the Thunder are 4-5 SU and 6-3 ATS on B2B this season. They haven't fared well with a Home/away b2b but I am banking on them handling the Hornets without Paul.
Other leans I am looking more into
Dallas -12 - Dallas is struggling right now so even against a not so good VERY banged up GSW why -12?? I think they are trying to tell us something, this could be a 30 point win tonight. Now Radmonovich is out with Magette. The Warriors played Kobe Carl last night and for some extended minutes. That should give you an idea of how bad it is for them right now.
I liked Portland initially but not so sure they can keep it close on the road. I am still looking at Chicago
Input always appreciated fellas
I like these plays today!
ATL -9.5 & ATL FH -5 - Hawks are a very good team and played a great game last night only to come up a little short on the road. They should be able to dominate the Clippers in all walks of life tonight. If the Hawks get out and break this game will be over early. I am not sure who is gonna guard Josh Smith as he will dunk all over Butler and blow right by Camby. I look for him to have a BIG game 27/10 type numbers. I also look for Crawford to have a big impact off the bench tonight.
OKC -2 - The Thunder have struggled in years past for a variety of reasons against the Hornets. CP3 being one of them and not enough depth being another. OKC has lots of momentum right now winning 3 straight and 6 of their last 10 and all 4 losses being close losses I think they are hitting there stride. Durant finally has enough help to get this team over the hump. West is the only match-up problem for OKC but I like Jeff Green and think he is a scrappy defender. Another angle I like here is Westbrook is a big PG who will take Collison in the post and also has seen him plenty in their days together at UCLA. Sefolosha is a lock down defender and I dont see Thorton getting many points tonight or Peja trying to shoot over a 6'9" Durantula.
I don't mind that either of these teams are on B2B as both have fared well the Hawks in this exact situation a b2b with the tail end being at home after being away are 2-0 SU and ATS this year, while the Thunder are 4-5 SU and 6-3 ATS on B2B this season. They haven't fared well with a Home/away b2b but I am banking on them handling the Hornets without Paul.
Other leans I am looking more into
Dallas -12 - Dallas is struggling right now so even against a not so good VERY banged up GSW why -12?? I think they are trying to tell us something, this could be a 30 point win tonight. Now Radmonovich is out with Magette. The Warriors played Kobe Carl last night and for some extended minutes. That should give you an idea of how bad it is for them right now.
I liked Portland initially but not so sure they can keep it close on the road. I am still looking at Chicago
Input always appreciated fellas
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Think your right about the Boston game I could see this one getting ugly early and Boston coasting to a 15 point win. Miami has no size and Rondo can terrorize the paint.
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Think your right about the Boston game I could see this one getting ugly early and Boston coasting to a 15 point win. Miami has no size and Rondo can terrorize the paint.
- Mar 18, 2009
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fwiw Duq one of worst ats teams in league - wonder if ya had a thought on prem conference team geo. mason that cud loose goin to the dance if they don't beat near bottom feeder geo st - line is -1 mason - only tatinale i see is lotta benc injures w/ gmason - fishy line @ best:shrug:
Careful with that over in Lakers game!
Careful with that over in Lakers game!
team=Lakers and season>2007 and p:site=away and p
oints<pooints and site=home and rest>0
SU: 7-2 (12.2)
ATS: 6-3-0 (2.3) avg line: -9.9
O/U: 0-9-0 (-19.1) avg total: 203.7
9 straight unders when coming home off a road loss and having 1 or more days rest.
Careful with that over in Lakers game!
team=Lakers and season>2007 and p:site=away and p
oints<pooints and site=home and rest>0SU: 7-2 (12.2)
ATS: 6-3-0 (2.3) avg line: -9.9
O/U: 0-9-0 (-19.1) avg total: 203.7
9 straight unders when coming home off a road loss and having 1 or more days rest.
Early Leans:
Knicks -5.5
Port/Utah Under 196
Spurs -4 (Full Unit no doubt)
Char/LAL Under 194
Phx +7
Chicago +2 (Half Unit no doubt)
NCAA:
UAB +7.5
Mizz/TAM Over 146
Considering: Illinois -4.5, NC State +5.5, Idaho/Utah St Over 131, PSU/OSU Over 130, Ill. State -1
Interesting tidbits:
Accuscore has LAL/Char @ 189, Dunkel has it 190.
Accuscore and Dunkel have Chicago outright and Spurs to cover.
Can someone run a query for a team over .500 on the season going on the road having won/covered last 3 games and getting +6 or more?
Knicks -5.5
Port/Utah Under 196
Spurs -4 (Full Unit no doubt)
Char/LAL Under 194
Phx +7
Chicago +2 (Half Unit no doubt)
NCAA:
UAB +7.5
Mizz/TAM Over 146
Considering: Illinois -4.5, NC State +5.5, Idaho/Utah St Over 131, PSU/OSU Over 130, Ill. State -1
Interesting tidbits:
Accuscore has LAL/Char @ 189, Dunkel has it 190.
Accuscore and Dunkel have Chicago outright and Spurs to cover.
Can someone run a query for a team over .500 on the season going on the road having won/covered last 3 games and getting +6 or more?
Sorry, but not sure I understand the question
Does going on the road mean
1) First game on the road
2) Last game at home before roadtrip
3) Any road game
4) Something else - please explain?
Thanks,
Bart
Above list I would approve of Pitt, A&M with Wyoming and Idaho as potential action plays in terms of line value only.
Two dogs to potentially make my card today: UAB +7.5 and NC State +5.5
Chi is 30-61 all time in Philly and 3-7 ATS this year on 2nd leg of B2B. I loved Chi initially but am not so sure now.
Here is your query
site=away and line>=6 and streak==3 and ats streak==3 and 0.5<=Average(o
oints<points@team and season) and 20071030<=dateSU: 0-12 (-11.1)
ATS: 2-10-0 (-3.5) avg line: 7.5
O/U: 7-4-1 (3.7) avg total: 200.2
How about this:
Query:
Team A overall winning % > .500, away, Streak of 3 wins SU, Streak of 3 wins ATS and getting >+5
Doesn't really matter if it's first game on road, sandwich of 4th on a 7 game road trip or whatever.
Chi is 30-61 all time in Philly and 3-7 ATS this year on 2nd leg of B2B. I loved Chi initially but am not so sure now.
Here is your query
site=away and line>=6 and streak==3 and ats streak==3 and 0.5<=Average(o
SU: 0-12 (-11.1)
ATS: 2-10-0 (-3.5) avg line: 7.5
O/U: 7-4-1 (3.7) avg total: 200.2
Wow so the team getting 6+ is 2-10 ATS? That's suprising. Thanks Jbril for the query.
BTW in relation to Chicago, I think rust played a huge part in those 3 days rest, they got a game under their belts now and back in action, looking for a rebound game against Philly, so I'm taking them for 1/2 unit like I said as several respected cappers I look to are also riding them tonight along with my numbers on the game.
