NBA WED 02032010-Early Thoughts and Value Hunting
- Thread starter Joe_Vienna
- Start date
- Mar 18, 2009
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Nothing locked up guys just wondering what do you think of these two
Tor/NJ Under 204.5
WASH + 5.5
GLTA
Tor/NJ Under 204.5
WASH + 5.5
GLTA
Updated leans
Updated leans
Won't be ale to spend as much time to fully cap the games tonight, so may have only one play and maybe another where I tail the consesus here.
My updated leans I will be looking at closer
Hawks-9.5 (possible pod) and under
Bulls +2 (agree with whoever talked about the rust, and this isnt a true b2b with the rest they've had)
Nets +10.5 :scared (Raps one of the worse b2b teams )
Cha-NO over 192.5
Kings-Spurs over 200 (Possible POD)
Bobs + 9.5
Heat +5.5 and Over 182.5
Warriors +12 and over 217
Will be back in a bit after some research kurby
Updated leans
Won't be ale to spend as much time to fully cap the games tonight, so may have only one play and maybe another where I tail the consesus here.
My updated leans I will be looking at closer
Hawks-9.5 (possible pod) and under
Bulls +2 (agree with whoever talked about the rust, and this isnt a true b2b with the rest they've had)
Nets +10.5 :scared (Raps one of the worse b2b teams )
Cha-NO over 192.5
Kings-Spurs over 200 (Possible POD)
Bobs + 9.5
Heat +5.5 and Over 182.5
Warriors +12 and over 217
Will be back in a bit after some research kurby
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Learned my lesson
Learned my lesson
Learned my lesson with taking Raps under, plus they are terrible on the 2nd night of a b2b, and even worse on defense :scared
Wizzards I have no lean either way, my 2 cents.
Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
:shrug:
Gramps, really like that Pitt over in College ball. BOL tonight buddy :00x1
Learned my lesson
Learned my lesson with taking Raps under, plus they are terrible on the 2nd night of a b2b, and even worse on defense :scared
Wizzards I have no lean either way, my 2 cents.
Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
:shrug:
Gramps, really like that Pitt over in College ball. BOL tonight buddy :00x1
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- Mar 18, 2009
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I jumped on NC STate this morning - bought to 6. Also dabbled wyoming (some injuries have me nervous, but elevation makes them on of the toughest home court teams). A few good cappers liking UAB--but maybe too many that it is scaring me a little.
Also Pitt: my write-up on that one:
I know this line is begging you to take Pitt...so I'm going to be sympathetic and do so. Pitt has a decent history of going to WV and winning. Plus they get Dixon back tonight from what I hear. Their recent slide here is filled with poor setups for them and the Dixon injury. Pitt circles the "backyard brawl" games every year on the calendar...I see a tight game, decided by 5 or less.
I am moving towards the Under here
I am moving towards the Under here
No Wallace and Jackson Hobbled?
I am moving towards the Under here
team=Lakers and season>2007 and p:site=away and points<po
SU: 7-2 (12.2)
ATS: 6-3-0 (2.3) avg line: -9.9
O/U: 0-9-0 (-19.1) avg total: 203.7
9 straight unders when coming home off a road loss and having 1 or more days rest.
No Wallace and Jackson Hobbled?
- Mar 18, 2009
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Burnetto - nice spot here I think - value in the line for G Mason. It looks like the history here has this line low. Ga St has covered 5 straight large spreads vs G Mason. Add in that last game at G mason, only 2 weeks ago, they only lost by 3. But when you look inside that game it just looks like an off game for GM. They only shot 39% from floor and 44% from line - both below season avg. And they were outrebounded 24 to 16 in the game. These facts do not prove out in the season stats for the 2 teams. Let's add in the fact that Ga St averages a -5 per game at the free throw line vs opponent this season. GM has won 7 straight, including its last 3 on the road. I'm biting here ---- GM -1 is a nice play.
Yep looks like Lakers coast to a win and maybe even a cover, no play on the side but I will be on the under later.
Something to think about
Something to think about
Just came across this tidbit :scared
BULLS are the FIRST TEAM in NBA History to win five consecutive road games on the same trip versus teams with winning records, and now they look to do something that they havent done in 4 years and that is win 6 consecutive road games (This one playing a losing team). SO WHY ARE THE SIXERS FAVORED by 3 POINTS AGAINST A "HOT" TEAM such as the BULLS? And in Retrospect WHY ARE THE BULLS GETTING POINTS AGAINST A DISMAL 16-31 team after ripping off 5 SU wins as Dogs???
Something to think about
Just came across this tidbit :scared
BULLS are the FIRST TEAM in NBA History to win five consecutive road games on the same trip versus teams with winning records, and now they look to do something that they havent done in 4 years and that is win 6 consecutive road games (This one playing a losing team). SO WHY ARE THE SIXERS FAVORED by 3 POINTS AGAINST A "HOT" TEAM such as the BULLS? And in Retrospect WHY ARE THE BULLS GETTING POINTS AGAINST A DISMAL 16-31 team after ripping off 5 SU wins as Dogs???
Be careful
Be careful
I know there is more to capping a game than just days rest, but the Bulls on zero days rest, thier total score goes up an avg of 9 per game than the other days rest, and for Philly it's 8 on days rest that they are playing on tonight.
HELP ME NARROW THESE DOWN:director:
Really like these plays, please tell me which one you like the most. Anyone feel free to chime in, thanks.
Hawks
Hawks Under
Hornets over
Heat
Heat over (really like this one)
Warriors :shrug: smells fishy. Mavs terrible ATS at home and GSW a good b2b team
Warriors over
Spur-Kings over
:0corn
Be careful
I know there is more to capping a game than just days rest, but the Bulls on zero days rest, thier total score goes up an avg of 9 per game than the other days rest, and for Philly it's 8 on days rest that they are playing on tonight.
HELP ME NARROW THESE DOWN:director:
Really like these plays, please tell me which one you like the most. Anyone feel free to chime in, thanks.
Hawks
Hawks Under
Hornets over
Heat
Heat over (really like this one)
Warriors :shrug: smells fishy. Mavs terrible ATS at home and GSW a good b2b team
Warriors over
Spur-Kings over
:0corn
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is my POD I am just trying to narrow down 2 more plays i like!
Any thoughts on my OKC play?
- Mar 18, 2009
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Prop bet on Josh Smith points is only ov 15.5 -125...should i be jumping all over this???
Why I like these
Why I like these
Updated leans
Hawks -9.5 and under 194
I feel THIS is the game the Clips say "screw it, let's just get home", especially after winning last night, and the hawks are one of if not the best Home team ATS this year. Atl is also 4-1 ATS this yr with zero rest playing a team on zero rest.
Why I like the under--Clips tired and these trends
Under is 5-2 in Clippers last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day.
Under is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day.
NO-OKC over 192.5
Over is 8-2-1 in Thunder last 11 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Over is 6-2 in Thunder last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day.
Over is 18-8 in Thunder last 26 games playing on 0 days rest
Over is 5-1 in Hornets last 6 overall.
Over is 8-3 in Hornets last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.
Miami +5.5 and over 182Heat are one of the best after being blownout
Heat are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Celtics are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games
Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points
Feel the total is adjusted too low cuz of Pierce's status, and it's a primetime game, and see Wade going off in what should be a close game to the end
Over is 17-5 in Celtics last 22 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Over is 8-2 in Heat last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points
Warriors +12 and over 217
Since an 18-point victory over the Rockets on November 10th, the Mavs' biggest home margin of victory has been seven points in the last 18 games in their backyard.
Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
Mavericks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record
Mavericks are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 17-4 in Mavericks last 21 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record
Over is 8-2 in Warriors last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Spurs-Kings over 200
The 2 games this yr between these 2 have flown over the total, and its set about at the same number, and the Spurs are rested.
Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Why I like these
Updated leans
Hawks -9.5 and under 194
I feel THIS is the game the Clips say "screw it, let's just get home", especially after winning last night, and the hawks are one of if not the best Home team ATS this year. Atl is also 4-1 ATS this yr with zero rest playing a team on zero rest.
Why I like the under--Clips tired and these trends
Under is 5-2 in Clippers last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day.
Under is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day.
NO-OKC over 192.5
Over is 8-2-1 in Thunder last 11 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Over is 6-2 in Thunder last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day.
Over is 18-8 in Thunder last 26 games playing on 0 days rest
Over is 5-1 in Hornets last 6 overall.
Over is 8-3 in Hornets last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.
Miami +5.5 and over 182Heat are one of the best after being blownout
Heat are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Celtics are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games
Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points
Feel the total is adjusted too low cuz of Pierce's status, and it's a primetime game, and see Wade going off in what should be a close game to the end
Over is 17-5 in Celtics last 22 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Over is 8-2 in Heat last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points
Warriors +12 and over 217
Since an 18-point victory over the Rockets on November 10th, the Mavs' biggest home margin of victory has been seven points in the last 18 games in their backyard.
Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
Mavericks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record
Mavericks are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 17-4 in Mavericks last 21 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record
Over is 8-2 in Warriors last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Spurs-Kings over 200
The 2 games this yr between these 2 have flown over the total, and its set about at the same number, and the Spurs are rested.
Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
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makes them better, not worse. he is stealing minutes from Lou williams - who pushes tempo. Plus this may help overs too since iverson always has poor shooting %
