NBA WED 040109 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

axp59

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You know how I feel about these matchups, especially late in the season when there is NOTHING to play for other than to pad stats on both sides. More encouragement to just play schoolground defence, let them score and run down to the other end for points. But then again we saw that Minnesota/OKC game?followed by Minn screwing us on an over against an elite defense the next night! Biz.arr.o. Anyway, as a general rule I trust your capping skills much more than my own, but this is one of the few guidelines that I do like to look at as one an initial cap-worthy game indicator.

Like I said, I trust your instincts much more than my own--I'd love to hear your thoughts on this UNDER...I might even buy the OVER tonight and sell it back for a middle play--or double up the Under.
Point well taken sir. There's a very good reason why I haven't pulled the trigger on this yet. I too have my doubts. I may pull this play completely off my list.
 

easterntimezone

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Is the Nets line another "trap"? I know Pisstones are playing their 4th in 5 nights but still. The last two Nets games I don't think they could have cared less?

Rumor of rife antagonism among team on Nets charter back from Minneapolis to New Jersey - has team chemistry completely eroded or has Frank tenuously papered over the gulf-like cracks to enable a fragile team to execute w/ a modicum of direction?

Detroit an older team - the players you want to count on - fatigue makes cowards out of us all.

May be better value elsewhere.
 

jlippens

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I don't know jlipp, +9.5 is a lot different from SU against my hometown C's:nono:

but I'm partial of course

:mj07: I agree with you, especially so given the point PnP brings up (very true, Brown is forced to do this as the bench doesn't offer much)...but it was more of a strict value question than one posed TO THE RESIDENT C'S HOMER

I enjoy playing favourable ATS medium to large dogs as 1st half ML plays--and this might be one that fits the bill. Charlotte should be motivated from the tip, but it might not be enough for a Boston team that wakes up in the second half.
 

Crockie

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If it's okay to discuss a side I was thinking of fading the Nets and taking the Pistons +1.5

I'm on the Pistons too. Pistons or no play for me. The last 2 games of New Jersey were :scared It seems that New Jersey has given up the season. Detroit is still fighting for the playoffs. But always when I bet against the Nets Harris & Carter score 60 points together :mad:
 

axp59

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:mj07: I agree with you, especially so given the point PnP brings up (very true, Brown is forced to do this as the bench doesn't offer much)...but it was more of a strict value question than one posed TO THE RESIDENT C'S HOMER

I enjoy playing favourable ATS medium to large dogs as 1st half ML plays--and this might be one that fits the bill. Charlotte should be motivated from the tip, but it might not be enough for a Boston team that wakes up in the second half.

Now this may be the play jlipp If I were to bet against my C's, I am very comfortable and confident with a ML play fading them.
 

jlippens

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I'm on the Pistons too. Pistons or no play for me. The last 2 games of New Jersey were :scared It seems that New Jersey has given up the season. Detroit is still fighting for the playoffs. But always when I bet against the Nets Harris & Carter score 60 points together :mad:

Agreed. I don't want to step in the way of a NJ team that's played completely erratically all season. And Detroit...just don't get sucked in. All the karma in the world is working against them this year. I still think they are consistently overpriced due to the decade of brilliance they are currently experiencing a hangover from. As soon as they win a game or two everyone assumes they are back to the old Pistons. They aren't.
 

GMan321

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I'm on the Pistons too. Pistons or no play for me. The last 2 games of New Jersey were :scared It seems that New Jersey has given up the season. Detroit is still fighting for the playoffs. But always when I bet against the Nets Harris & Carter score 60 points together :mad:

Rasheed is suspended for the nets game after getting his 16th tech foul. And iverson is unhappy coming off the bench. They are playing back to back too.

""I can play 18 minutes with my eyes closed and a 100-pound truck on my back," Iverson said. "I'm wondering what the rush was to get me back. It's a bad time for me mentally. I'm just trying to get through it without starting a whole bunch of nonsense. I'm looking at the big picture, if I vent my frustrations, then it's on.""
 

jlippens

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Rasheed is suspended for the nets game after getting his 16th tech foul. And iverson is unhappy coming off the bench. They are playing back to back too. If A.I plays, it's still worth the 1 unit.

""I can play 18 minutes with my eyes closed and a 100-pound truck on my back," Iverson said. "I'm wondering what the rush was to get me back. It's a bad time for me mentally. I'm just trying to get through it without starting a whole bunch of nonsense. I'm looking at the big picture, if I vent my frustrations, then it's on.""

Iverson drives Power-wheels? That might explain the small-man complex.
 

jlippens

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I'm Canadian. I watch a lot of Raptors games, both at home and in person.

He who shall not be named is on Toronto +10 tomorrow.

"Teams facing a bad team (20+ games under five hundred), before facing a red hot conference leader, are 9-33 ATS.
My play:Toronto +10"
 

axp59

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I'm Canadian. I watch a lot of Raptors games, both at home and in person.

He who shall not be named is on Toronto +10 tomorrow.

"Teams facing a bad team (20+ games under five hundred), before facing a red hot conference leader, are 9-33 ATS.
My play:Toronto +10"

damn...now that's a nice little number there. You locked then jlipp?
 

Crockie

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I'll never bet on Toronto this season :nono:

And be very careful with the Bobcats against the Celtics kurby
 

M__J

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Found a few eyebrow raisers that point to ORL -10 as the play...

TORONTO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games second half of the season this season.

ORLANDO is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.

The total for this game should be north of 200, and with ORL striving to hold of BOS for the 2nd spot in the east, expect a strong showing from Dwight Howard and the magic.

Strong lean to ORL -10
 

jlippens

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Further to that, if you want my homer-ish opinion, the Raptors just plain have too much talent to be this bad this season. The JO experiment was a massive failure, Calderon was playing hurt for most of it, we had no small forward until Marion showed up, and we switched coaches a 1/3rd of the way into the season.

It's unsurprising that Toronto has the record it does, but by the same token, it's unsurprising they're 5-2 (against mediocre teams, yes, but almost all of them with better records) of late. #1 factor is Calderon being healthy. When he is, and he is of late, he is hands-down one of the best PG's in the league, although he gets no press. A number of people clamored for the injustice of last year's all-star game not including Calderon while he was getting sub minutes as the backup PG to TJ Ford. That says something.

Guard play is supremely important to *every* team, and Calderon carries this team on his back when given the chance. He's in that zone now, and the Raptors genuinely seem to want to prove they aren't as bad as their record.

It's a funny thing to say, but you'll never find a better 28-45 team. Ten points is a big number in terms of a backdoor cover for a team that really is not as bad as its record.
 
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