NBA WED 040109 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[easterntimezone]

For some reason we play Orlando quite well most of the time at home. In Disneyland however, not as successful. I'd argue that with the rosters as assembled the way they are right now, I don't think we'll get blown out, but I wouldn't put money on that either. Bosh always comes to play against the Magic and the absence of Nelson will ease the defensive burden on Jose. Also, the addition of Marion should help contain the offensive firepower of Hedo and Rashard. I'd stay away from this one personally.

Are the Magic looking ahead to Friday's game against the Cavaliers? They wouldn't publicly admit to it, but there's always a possibility.

If yes, then +10 has life.

If not, then -10 very feasible comfortably.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Worth looking up ? Celts still without KG, "just an ordinary team"...Bobcats now 1 GB for a playoff spot...does Larry Brown set up some major defensive scheme or does he think he can use Celts seemingly weaker D to his advantage by playing more offensive style ? What about Doc, will he unleash Allen & Marbury in an up-tempo game vs a team that just played the Lakers the night before ?


The league, after beating Lakers at home as a dog, playing away as a dog on no rest: 10-1 o/u since 2002, avg total 188.6, avg score 199.5

po:team=Lakers and p:site=home and site=away and rest=0 and p:line>0 and line>0 and 0< p:margin and 20001030<=date



Bobcats, playing away on no rest after a home game ytd: 3-0 o/u, avg total 193.2, avg score 206.3

team=Bobcats and p:site=home and site=away and rest=0 and 20081030<=date



Celtics, after a 15+ pts home win [103-84 vs OKC], playing home on 1 or more days rest ytd: 4-1 o/u avg total 198.4, avg score 206

(buncha crappy D offensive teams here though)

team=Celtics and p:site=home and site=home and 1<=t:rest and p:margin>=15 and 20081030<=date


Early numbers: >85% on over...I would expect the public to jump on the under during the day, given the teams playing... this should at least serve as warning for under-players, no ?

 

[LookKaPyPy]

wierd...fixed it..

 

[40seven]

For what it is worth

For what it is worth

- Washington-Memphis: Over 65% on Memphis. Line from -3.5 to -2.5


- Charlotte-Boston: Over 70% on Charlotte: Line from +9 to +9.5

Just last week we saw two teams "shit the pants" coming back across the country..... take the Wiz plus the points especially if the public stays on the Grizz

Celtic Over may be the play with KG out. But certainly worth watching. I think the Celtics win by 15+. Look what happened the last time the Bob's had a big win....

Lastly, the Raptors plus 10. they are palying to well for 10. They seem to be having fun and they have been covering well.

JKust early ideas

 

[LookKaPyPy]

I'm going out, but Pistons and under 187 seems like an interesting option. Going to look through it more when I come back, unless, someone beats me to it

My early numbers say this one wont come out of 170s

 

[Joe_Vienna]

LAL@MIL

U is 7-0 in Lakers last seven games after loosing away
(7-3 overall this season)

season=2008 and team=Lakers and p:AL and date>=20081222

U is 13-3 in Lakers last 16 games as favorite

season=2008 and team=Lakers and F and date>=20090224

U is 13-3 in Lakers last 16 overall

season=2008 and team=Lakers and date>=20090227

U is 9-2 in Lakers after a ATS loss

season=2008 and team=Lakers and p:ats margin<0 and date>=20090217

U is 6-2 in Bucks last 8 home games (always as dog)
(4-0 in the last 4)

season=2008 and team=Bucks and site=home and date>=20090228

U is 3-0 in Bucks last 3 games after a ATS win (all @ home)

season=2008 and team=Bucks and p:ats margin>0 and date>=20090228

:shrug:


this time I hope my queries will work :0corn

 

[cricket2009]

hello ax......i found this website that could be very helpful in what u guys do here......very informative.
i have followed u the on the last 2 unders and they have hit......as for the 1st quarter wagers with teams playing at home who have something to play for i am 10-7......still a profit but not as of what i hope it would be.....i am looking now into full game points against offensive teams who play against teams with good d......

example.......phoenix against houston tonight....if their full game total goes into the high 110s its worth taking a peek...... i also think this game has the potential to go under......225......houston does not score alot of points and they have good defense......i don't think they will get into a track meet unless yao gets into foul trouble.....there is that possibility cause he is going against shaq.....what u think......the website is *****
edit admin

note all of the links that you have all been posting have been up on the madjacksports resource page below for some time now, please refer to there and thanks for posting no links on the forum: admin

http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/handicappers.php?c=18

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Links are not allowed buddy! You can PM the link everbody who asks for it :toast:

 

[cricket2009]

no problem........my bad:shrug:

 

[Joe_Vienna]

no problem........my bad:shrug:

No offense, just wanted to say it before the admin has to!

:toast:

 

[BillyBatts]

Hello ladies.:sadwave: Lookin forward to putting my 2 cents in today. Thanks for the invite from across the street Ax. Good to see a few familiar names.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Hello ladies.:sadwave: Lookin forward to putting my 2 cents in today. Thanks for the invite from across the street Ax. Good to see a few familiar names.

Nice to see you :toast:

 

[grindstone]

Hello ladies.:sadwave: Lookin forward to putting my 2 cents in today. Thanks for the invite from across the street Ax. Good to see a few familiar names.

Welcome aboard BB

:00x1

 

[axp59]

Yes -- any number between 220-230.

anyone got a number on this? thanks

 

[grindstone]

I'm looking at the line movement and I'm thinking about this... I'm very careful the last days since the reverse line movements at Sacramento or the Lakers. Now it's the same:

- Detroit-New Jersey: Over 80% on Detroit. Line from 0 to +1.5
- LAL-Milwaukee: Over 80% on LAL. Line from -7.5 to +6.5
- Houston-Phoenix. Over 75% on Houston. Line from +1.5 to +1
- Washington-Memphis: Over 65% on Memphis. Line from -3.5 to -2.5
- Charlotte-Boston: Over 70% on Charlotte: Line from +9 to +9.5

Right now leaning

Bost- 9

NJ pk

Tor + 10

 

[axp59]

ax i made it over here...how you been bro

fatdan, wow, good to see you pal. You gotta change that avatar though cause at first I thought you were Slicer That's not a bad thing.

Welcome brother. Just in time to wrap up the NBA and right into baseball.

 

[Eagle123]

Good morning Ax, start working again

 

[ImNext1000]

Det vs NJ line is at 186.5
NJ fav by 1.5, i think the pistons got this one
they got most of their players back, rasheed is not going to play due to his technicals

 

[axp59]

hello ax......i found this website that could be very helpful in what u guys do here......very informative.
i have followed u the on the last 2 unders and they have hit......as for the 1st quarter wagers with teams playing at home who have something to play for i am 10-7......still a profit but not as of what i hope it would be.....i am looking now into full game points against offensive teams who play against teams with good d......

example.......phoenix against houston tonight....if their full game total goes into the high 110s its worth taking a peek...... i also think this game has the potential to go under......225......houston does not score alot of points and they have good defense......i don't think they will get into a track meet unless yao gets into foul trouble.....there is that possibility cause he is going against shaq.....what u think......the website is http://www.82games.com

Thanks for the site. Already bookmarked and will check it out. I also like the HOU/PHO under because I think HOU wins SU. With that said, I'm done doing totals for PHO specially at home. It's off my list. BOL

 

[axp59]

Hello ladies.:sadwave: Lookin forward to putting my 2 cents in today. Thanks for the invite from across the street Ax. Good to see a few familiar names.

IlliniBill,

Good to see you pal. I think you will be a fine addition to this group. Welcome aboard and jump right in.