NBA WED 042909 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

JBrilman

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Some reason my gut last night said Heat but I may have talked myself out of it already. Wade's back is hurting him and it can only get worse and I didn't think Atl. had it in them but I can see that is wrong. Even though I'm a Salesman looks like I won't be selling anyone on this play. Even myself.:mj07:

At work for a bit today but I will get home soon and work on the totals.

Hows the work coming Ax?

HERE IS A GOOD WRITE UP ON ATLANTA FWIW

"The man formerly known as D-Wade said that after the Heat's 81-71 loss to the Hawks. What he was referring to was the fact that outside of himself, O'Neal and James Jones, the other seven members of the team combined for a total of 10 points.

In my write-up before Game 3, I said that Atlanta was finished. I predicted a blowout in that game by Miami, I predicted that the Heat would protect homecourt throughout the rest of the series, I predicted that Wade would continue his postseason excellence and inspire his young inexperienced teammates to follow suit. What I didn't foresee was Flash being magically replaced by a 40-year-old version of himself between Games 3 and 4.

And that, my friends, is game-set-match for the Atlanta Hawks. Unless a couple members of ATL's starting lineup suddenly come down with the swine flu after a Latin-themed sex party, this is now their series. The player now known as D-Wheelchair has reportedly been in shambles ever since the morning shootaround before Game 4 and it doesn't seem to have improved at all since then. And here's some more news that couldn't come at a worse time: Key reserve Jamario Moon has been ruled out for the rest of postseason with a sports hernia.

That's going to further hurt their unproductive bench that, outside of Daequan Cook's explosive performance in Game 2, has been absolutely worthless in Round 1. The reserves combined for 17 points on 8-25 shooting in Game 1, 18 points on 8-22 shooting in Game 3 and a pathetic TWO points on 0-7 shooting in Game 4. This is a very young and inexperienced team for the Miami Heat right here. Seven players on this sqiad have been in the league for three years or fewer; for five of them, this is their first NBA playoff experience. They may have been ready to support a healthy Wade just enough to advance, but they're sure as hell not going to be able to handle having to piggy-back their hobbled superstar against this super-athletic and more experienced Hawks lineup.

According to Dwyane, he'll definitely be out there on the court tonight whether he's "100 perfect or 35 percent". What he can't guarantee, however, is a win for his team if he's anything other than that perfect 100 percent. Atlanta only lost ten times all season at home in the regular season. At home in last year's playoffs against the Boston Celtics, they were undefeated. In this postseason, they're got a .500 record there.

The chances that Hotlanta gives up another one in this situation?

NONE."
 

muhr

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something i noticed.

in denver's 3 wins they were up 8, 8, and 22 in the 1st half. the 1st half is -6.5 for tonight.

i'm more comfortable with the -10.5 for the game, but it's something to think about.
 

axp59

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something i noticed.

in denver's 3 wins they were up 8, 8, and 22 in the 1st half. the 1st half is -6.5 for tonight.

i'm more comfortable with the -10.5 for the game, but it's something to think about.

I just ran some numbers on this 1H and it's not a bad play at all. BOL
 

Griffin8s

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After breaking down some number I got to lean under one the first game and leave second one alone.
Mia/Atl @ 179.5
The avg for this playoff series so for is 173. and the avg For these 2 in the 7 games this season/playoff 171.4. Wade not 100% then how do they get the points to get over 179.5. Now I must warn you 2 of these playoff games have gone over and 2 have gone under this figure that we have been given. I just think the diff. here is Wade.
Also making me think if Hawks not a bad play here at -6?????:shrug: (I know totally opposite would I first thought last night):00x32
Tonights card for me looks like this. (So far)
Mia/Atl @ U179.5 (hold till close to game may get 180)
Den. -10.5- also my POD
:00x1 :00x22
 

Truckin'

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FWIW, DEN is the POD. I have another play I'm looking at. I'll post later in the afternoon once the west coast has its bearings

Of your 3 Leans which is the one your referring to above?
Thanks for all the great info and good Luck w/ all your plays
 

axp59

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Of your 3 Leans which is the one your referring to above?
Thanks for all the great info and good Luck w/ all your plays

thanks pal.

I'm looking at the two totals. I've been looking at both since last night. Looked again this morning and one more time later. When I come to a decision, I'll likely parlay that with the DEN ml to get extra value.

BOL to you sir.
 

JBrilman

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After breaking down some number I got to lean under one the first game and leave second one alone.
Mia/Atl @ 179.5
The avg for this playoff series so for is 173. and the avg For these 2 in the 7 games this season/playoff 171.4. Wade not 100% then how do they get the points to get over 179.5. Now I must warn you 2 of these playoff games have gone over and 2 have gone under this figure that we have been given. I just think the diff. here is Wade.
Also making me think if Hawks not a bad play here at -6?????:shrug: (I know totally opposite would I first thought last night):00x32
Tonights card for me looks like this. (So far)
Mia/Atl @ U179.5 (hold till close to game may get 180)
Den. -10.5- also my POD
:00x1 :00x22

My final card all locked in (had to go with my gut tonight and the action parlay)

DEN -10.5 1UNIT

ATL -6 1UNIT

5.5 pt Teaser
DEN -5.0
ATL -.5
1UNIT

3 TEAM
DEN -10.5
ATL -6
DEN O197.5
.6UNIT
 
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axp59

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My 2nd play tonight for 1U is NOH/DEN OVER.

BOL all

Here's me making the pick. :mj07: This is the other side of the room that's almost done. I have to do the molding and snake those wires.

I sit here to watch games and do research! Let's cash tonight fellas. If I were a gambling man and action junkie, I'd also play MIA and UNDER.

tonight then it's:
DEN 1U
OVER 1U

back to work

<a href="http://s627.photobucket.com/albums/tt354/axp59/?action=view&current=capping.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i627.photobucket.com/albums/tt354/axp59/capping.jpg" border="0" alt="Capping"></a>
 

LFTNUT

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My 2nd play tonight for 1U is NOH/DEN OVER.

BOL all

Here's me making the pick. :mj07: This is the other side of the room that's almost done. I have to do the molding and snake those wires.

I sit here to watch games and do research! Let's cash tonight fellas. If I were a gambling man and action junkie, I'd also play MIA and UNDER.

tonight then it's:
DEN 1U
OVER 1U

back to work

<a href="http://s627.photobucket.com/albums/tt354/axp59/?action=view&current=capping.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i627.photobucket.com/albums/tt354/axp59/capping.jpg" border="0" alt="Capping"></a>


LIKE IT BOL 2 U

:toast:
 

Truckin'

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Is that yellow construction paper on the walls :mj07:

J/K looks good!

Lets win some cash :toast:
 

joe_shmoe

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My 2nd play tonight for 1U is NOH/DEN OVER.

BOL all

Here's me making the pick. :mj07: This is the other side of the room that's almost done. I have to do the molding and snake those wires.

I sit here to watch games and do research! Let's cash tonight fellas. If I were a gambling man and action junkie, I'd also play MIA and UNDER.

tonight then it's:
DEN 1U
OVER 1U

back to work

<a href="http://s627.photobucket.com/albums/tt354/axp59/?action=view&current=capping.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i627.photobucket.com/albums/tt354/axp59/capping.jpg" border="0" alt="Capping"></a>

Why you hiding your face Ax? Don't worry, you won't scare us...
 

Griffin8s

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Well call me action junkie tonight.

I "L---ed" in

Atl -6 (very small)
Mia/Atl U179.5 (Med)
Den -10.5 (Large)

Then small parlay on
Mia/Atl Under play and Den -10.5.

Good luck to us!!!!
:00hour
 

axp59

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Why you hiding your face Ax? Don't worry, you won't scare us...

LOL, you can know a lot more about me by looking at what's around that actually seeing my face. Hmmmm, sounds like capping games.

Good to see you Joe. Haven't seen how you been doing with the NBA playoffs. Hope you're turning a profit. BOL
 

joe_shmoe

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LOL, you can know a lot more about me by looking at what's around that actually seeing my face. Hmmmm, sounds like capping games.

Good to see you Joe. Haven't seen how you been doing with the NBA playoffs. Hope you're turning a profit. BOL

I've been doing pretty well in MLB. Been picking my spots in NBA. Basically treading water. Wish I had tailed you blindly to start the playoffs. If that were the case, I would probably be offering to fly out to do your dry walling for you.
 

patriot09

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why does everyone love denver, arent u scared of the backdoor cover, this game scares me
 
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