NBA WED 052009 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[40seven]

OM@CC

OM@CC

FWIW I think this is a game I believe the CC will win but at best a ML play. I can see OM keeping it close and covering and i can see CC pulling away in the end and covering but I think both teams play hard.

I think it goes into the 90's maybe 100-95 with Rafer being Rafer and OM fading......

I am playing the OVER.


BTW would love to see your MLB plays ax, I had a great few weeks then it turned bad and now seems to be coming back. If you have any insight I would love it

 

[jlippens]

PPS. Am i the only one who hates Howard as Defensive Player of the Year? Complete mistake. Changing shots inside (which he does) is a huge deal, but a number of big men do that.

Yes, his athleticism is very impressive. And he grabs a ton of rebounds. But once he starts learning to NOT swat 80% of blocks out of bounds, I'll start respecting as a great defensive player.

Anyway. Off-topic, somewhat.

 

[ImNext1000]

u guys think cleveland forgot about that beatdown they got in Orlando , when they lost by 29, i know regular season games dont count, but i expect Cleveland to come out ready to play

is going to be interesting to see who is going to guard Rashard Lewis......Varejao......dont think so

might just wait till halftime again ....
BOL :mj06:

 

[proguy747]

I feel the magic's transistion defense is underated. Yes the cavs have been rolling lately but will they continue total dominace? NO, the pistons were not even a playoff caliber team and were beat before they played any opponent. The hawks are a very one dimensional team with its main star very bi-polar and imature. The magic have too many weapons to be shut down and dominated. The performance in game seven showed that the magic players believe in each other and are not afraid of failure. Most players during crunch time pass up on a open shot. Every player was confident and knocked down the shot. I am a believer in the magic. Will they win the series no. will they cover the spread yes. My plays are 1st qrtr, 1st half and game. I will leave the total alone or tail ax.

Magic +9

 

[harlytiger]

I have bought the line up to 10 and will take my chances on the over due to the 3 seems to be falling better for Orlando the last two games and Think Cavs have the energy for a lot of baskets.

 

[edludes]

Magic hit 62% of threes in game 7 vs Boston.

 

[grindstone]

Here are the public #'s

ORL/CLEV

Spread
Clev 58%
Orl 42%


Total
52% Over
48% Under

Bet# 24266

 

[BIGWave]

Magic hit 62% of threes in game 7 vs Boston.

23.1%, 25.0%, 18.5%, 50%, 42.1%, 33.3% in games before that game.........
CLEV kept DET under 33.3% in all 4 games, and ATL under 42% in all 4 games.......
CLEV defense is on a different level than BOS is now sans Garnett.

Lock anything yet Ax???

 

[harlytiger]

Whats the website that shows the REFS:shrug:

 

[proguy747]

Whats the website that shows the REFS:shrug:

not lovers

 

[Griffin8s]

Homer Alert!!
Think I have to stick to my guns here with the Cavs. They are the only team that has shown they can handle the pressure in these big games. At the time you think they will let you down they show their best game. As for the totals looking at the numbers (and yes I did look at them Ax) how can you even talk about the under. But as was said by pfj "But as we all know these playoff totals have been everything but predictable" Last nights under was nice and looked great till the 2nd qtr and all hell broke lose and gave us a half score of 55-54. If they stayed on that pace it would have been a loser. My point is this you have no idea what Orl. team we will see tonight. I know what Cleveland team we will see, well rested and ready to get this series over with and on to the next one. (with Denver I hope.:mj07: ) So I stay away from the total and give me the CAVS!!! GL to everyone fill them pockets!!

 

[gamecocks207]

Do we have any locks yet?

 

[gamecocks207]

I am thinking over for the 1st half and then, most likely Orlando +10.5 (buy two) small wager..
Waiting on Final word from AX....

 

[grindstone]

Here are the public #'s

ORL/CLEV

Spread
Clev 58%
Orl 42%


Total
52% Over
48% Under

Bet# 24266

ORL/CLEV

Spread
Clev 56%
Orl 46%


Total
46% Over
54% Under

Bet# 30074


Under money has come in as the public has shifted it to the under

 

[axp59]

Plenty of time to think this one over...Please tail with caution. My guess is not better than yours.

equal unit plays:

NBA [504] CLE GM1 -8?-110

2 parlay
{NBA [504] TOTAL u184?-110 (ORL GM1 vrs CLE GM1)/[504] CLE GM1 -485} +130

BOL

 

[ShivaShante]

I like the plays Ax! I don't think that we really know what to expect in this game (as others have already stated). IMHO Vegas has got the spread and total very tight (hence a basically 50/50 split on both by the public, exactly the way they want it!)

I'll bite for a little on Clevland and the under!:shrug:

GLTA!!:0corn

 

[mpnyc76]

Ax- can i ask what the reasonig is for doing the parlay? why not just do two seperate bets, game and total?

 

[axp59]

strictly to reduce juice on the O/U action. It's a value play. CLE SU is a given. If that doesn't hit, I have bigger problems worry about.

 

[canuckfan77]

I can never speak for Ax but in the past it has been for value. Otherwise too much juice on a ML bet.

 

[Ace_Ace]

I don't know AX why I like Over today

Cle & Over