NBA WED 102809 early thoughts - value hunting

[CoFred]

Well put ETZ, that is my gameplan for tonight as well.
:0corn

 

[t-mook]

very true AXP we just cant help ourselves sometimes lol. so what action plays have u locked in so far AXP?

 

[axp59]

Recall last season that all of the cliched impressions of the Jazz as a tough defensive unit were put to rest - Sloan has adapted to the offensive-orientation of the league and while they may still exert the occasional defensive effort, Utah looks to have placed greater emphasis on repetition of its offensive sets.

Eclipsing 209 won't be a problem for these 2 offensively-driven teams - any nonsense about altitude gets chucked out the window as well given that it's Utah heading into Denver (usually more of a psychological issue since Denver's announcers/PA system trumpet the debilitating effects of being that far removed from sea level, furnishing an easy excuse for teams that turn in a sorry performance).

Already placed a small wager on the U in the Cleveland/Toronto affair, will likely do so on the Knicks @ +5 and see how those fare before proceeding w/ this contest - if still @ 209, then it's an attractive proposition.

Crap ETZ...I said talk me out of it...NOT talk me into playing it :director: LOL. Thanks Brother. Always value your fundemental analysis.

 

[axp59]

very true AXP we just cant help ourselves sometimes lol. so what action plays have u locked in so far AXP?

Got my kids' lunch money on the Under in the great white north of Toronto and same for those Knickerbockers plus 2 possesions down there in Dade county. I like the fact that most of these fine cappers are seeing the same thing. To tell ya the truth, I'm just tailing these guys. :mj06:

 

[ari]

I don't think I like the Over in Den. Some the "headcase" issues from last year are festering again this year and may have grown into full scale dysfunction. I also just read a post across the street making a case that Denver may have weekend their team while most of their opponents strenghteded theirs...

 

[Truckin']

Ax
Heres my thoughts on tonights game
I know wrong forum :shrug:

Last 3 W-L Tm W-L IP H WHIP ERA AF AA OU

Cliff Lee (L) 2-0 3-0 24.1 14 0.70 0.74 7.0 1.7 2-1
CC Sab (L) 3-0 3-0 22.2 17 0.88 1.19 7.0 1.3 1-2

With these numbers I love the under and the line at 7.5 even it is begging for over money IMO.
Under 4-120 1st 5 is probably the best play on the board. I see a pitchers dual w/ Philly winning late.

Cliff Lee
5/29/2009 NY YANKEES 1-3 -115 9 Loss,Under L 6 3 3 9 0 2 5 PETTITTE(L)
4/16/2009 at NY YANKEES 10-2 +187 8 Win,Over W 6 1 1 7 1 3 4 SABATHIA(L)
5/7/2008 at NY YANKEES 3-0 +130 8 Win,Under W 7 0 0 6 0 0 7 WANG(R)

C.C. Sabathia
5/24/2009 PHILADELPHIA 3-4 -165 9 Loss,Under 8 3 3 9 0 0 4 HAMELS(L)
10/2/2008 at PHILADELPHIA 2-5 -130 8 Loss,Under L 3.7 5 5 6 1 4 5 MYERS(R)
6/20/2007 PHILADELPHIA 10-6 -215 9.5 Win,Over W 6 4 4 5 1 1 4 LIEBER(R)


Lee Has had some sucess against the Yanks winning his last 2 in NY (Old & New Stadium). Lee beat Sabathia earlier in the year @ NY. Sabathia has had his problems with Philly last few games. He gave up 9 hits & 3 Earned Runs in May and got pounded in 2008 @ Philly against basically the same team they will start tonight. I don't have any hesitation at all backing Lee +money. I hope the line continues to rise.

GL Tonight

I also played Jazz/ Nuggets under 209 -105
Denver Smith & Balkman out
Utah Korver, Harpring & Miles all out
Brewer & Price Questionable
Any Thoughts

 

[Mindframe913]

Ax
Heres my thoughts on tonights game
I know wrong forum :shrug:

Last 3 W-L Tm W-L IP H WHIP ERA AF AA OU

Cliff Lee (L) 2-0 3-0 24.1 14 0.70 0.74 7.0 1.7 2-1
CC Sab (L) 3-0 3-0 22.2 17 0.88 1.19 7.0 1.3 1-2

With these numbers I love the under and the line at 7.5 even it is begging for over money IMO.
Under 4-120 1st 5 is probably the best play on the board. I see a pitchers dual w/ Philly winning late.

Cliff Lee
5/29/2009 NY YANKEES 1-3 -115 9 Loss,Under L 6 3 3 9 0 2 5 PETTITTE(L)
4/16/2009 at NY YANKEES 10-2 +187 8 Win,Over W 6 1 1 7 1 3 4 SABATHIA(L)
5/7/2008 at NY YANKEES 3-0 +130 8 Win,Under W 7 0 0 6 0 0 7 WANG(R)

C.C. Sabathia
5/24/2009 PHILADELPHIA 3-4 -165 9 Loss,Under 8 3 3 9 0 0 4 HAMELS(L)
10/2/2008 at PHILADELPHIA 2-5 -130 8 Loss,Under L 3.7 5 5 6 1 4 5 MYERS(R)
6/20/2007 PHILADELPHIA 10-6 -215 9.5 Win,Over W 6 4 4 5 1 1 4 LIEBER(R)


Lee Has had some sucess against the Yanks winning his last 2 in NY (Old & New Stadium). Lee beat Sabathia earlier in the year @ NY. Sabathia has had his problems with Philly last few games. He gave up 9 hits & 3 Earned Runs in May and got pounded in 2008 @ Philly against basically the same team they will start tonight. I don't have any hesitation at all backing Lee +money. I hope the line continues to rise.

GL Tonight

I also played Jazz/ Nuggets under 209 -105
Denver Smith & Balkman out
Utah Korver, Harpring & Miles all out
Brewer & Price Questionable
Any Thoughts

Throw all your trends, stats, systems, situations, numbers out the window. This is World series baseball...some of these guys would kill there own mother to get to this point of the season! It aint worth it to bet on, but hey if you do, go with the dog... I like your thinking. GL. me myself will be in the right field bleachers with a 200 dollar prop bet on cliff lee to give up a homer lol...thats coming strait from a homer. GL

 

[Truckin']

Throw all your trends, stats, systems, situations, numbers out the window. This is World series baseball...some of these guys would kill there own mother to get to this point of the season! It aint worth it to bet on, but hey if you do, go with the dog... I like your thinking. GL. me myself will be in the right field bleachers with a 200 dollar prop bet on cliff lee to give up a homer lol...thats coming strait from a homer. GL

No trends for me, some stats. I just like the fact that Philly has had sucess against CC and Lee is at the top of his game.
BOL

 

[axp59]

Ax
Heres my thoughts on tonights game
I know wrong forum :shrug:

Thanks for this info truckin. Man, I'm on the other side of all your plays. :scared Bound to happen pal. I wish you well, it's out of our hands. I'll be going to a Red Sox Crazy bar tonight with a NYY cap on to support my wagers. God help me.

BOL with all your action Truck!

 

[grindstone]

Hey AX nice to see you back brother. Can't wait to get in on this each day. Meantime I'm in Las Vegas be back home Mon Nov 2.

Hard to find internet cafe's here.

When 2-0 Last night thanls to C's and LAClip

Tor under
Det

Talk to you all soon

 

[axp59]

Hey AX nice to see you back brother. Can't wait to get in on this each day. Meantime I'm in Las Vegas be back home Mon Nov 2.

Hard to find internet cafe's here.

When 2-0 Last night thanls to C's and LAClip

Tor under
Det

Talk to you all soon

Enjoy Serg!
:toast:

 

[rragga2727]

ax ,great to have your insight back, and so many others. it's hard to give a good analogy on the 1st game of the year. I feel that urge also were nothing stands out yet everything stands out. Small plays , small money. I like okc at home they showed great energy last year and could improve ,sac already has garcia and martin hurt. I like denver at home whatever possitive or negative thats being said . Utah has stunk on the road and denver should be pumped.
I like the san antonio/no under186.5 because of they're styles, and i'll probably bite with the tor/clev under. good luck this year,Ax and all.:shrug: :mj06:

 

[axp59]

ax ,great to have your insight back, and so many others. it's hard to give a good analogy on the 1st game of the year. I feel that urge also were nothing stands out yet everything stands out. Small plays , small money. I like okc at home they showed great energy last year and could improve ,sac already has garcia and martin hurt. I like denver at home whatever possitive or negative thats being said . Utah has stunk on the road and denver should be pumped.
I like the san antonio/no under186.5 because of they're styles, and i'll probably bite with the tor/clev under. good luck this year,Ax and all.:shrug: :mj06:

Good seeing you again sir. Have we discussed you avatar in the past? I've always wondered who that was. Reminds me of Heystacks Calhoun. That goes back a ways. Well, have a great season pal.

 

[grindstone]

Hey AX what are your final plays for today

I got 193.5 here on tor game, please answer I'm on a timer

 

[JBrilman]

Throw all your trends, stats, systems, situations, numbers out the window. This is World series baseball...some of these guys would kill there own mother to get to this point of the season! It aint worth it to bet on, but hey if you do, go with the dog... I like your thinking. GL. me myself will be in the right field bleachers with a 200 dollar prop bet on cliff lee to give up a homer lol...thats coming strait from a homer. GL

wrong thread but I couldn't resist.

EXACTLY you can throw all of the regular season and past season stats out of the window.

You can look at this years post season games as an indication and all indications point to this being a GREAT series.

One thing no one has mentioned is that Lee is returning to the AL essentially as he will face 9 hitters instead of 8 and a pitcher. Everybody in the Yanks line up hit over 20 HR except Jeter with 18. CC has had to deal with that all year and Lee if anyone remembers only resurrected his season by joining the National League where hitters hadn't seen him and he didn't have to face a DH.

This is BIG!!!

This series will go to Philly 2-0 yanks and come back to NY 3-2 Yankees with a close out in either game 6 or 7. It will not be a sweep nor will it end in 5 games, it will take at least 6.

CC will negate any pitching advantage the Phils have with Lee on the mound and lets not forget the Yanks are the #1 hitting team against lefties at .286 and the Phils are the #26 hitting team against lefties at .248.

My picks for tonight

NYY -165 3 units
NYY +130 3 units

BOL gents

No NBA "action" for me

 

[grindstone]

Sorry boys can't put so much feedback this week heading back to my wife's cousins in LA and then will be back chatting it up boys.

GLTA

Man $5 gets you 15 min of internet in LV That's crazy

 

[axp59]

Hey AX what are your final plays for today

I got 193.5 here on tor game, please answer I'm on a timer

crap hope you get this.

under on that game and NYK +6

 

[axp59]

My picks for tonight

NYY -165 3 units
NYY +130 3 units

BOL gents

No NBA "action" for me

Looks like my action Jus. I also have the Ov7.5

This is beyond baseball. LOL Gambling is beyond everything. :box2:

 

[grindstone]

Thanks AX I'll keep in touch. I appreciate it. Email you next week

 

[BillyBatts]

Hedo's ankle is fine. he said he would have kept playing in that game if it was in reg season and that he has played hurt before. he is a gamer and he will def make this toronto team alot better. Opening nite in toronto will be a factor too, im sure it will be loud as hell in there! I would not bet on the cavs tonite and am strongly considering taking raps +6...if it gets to +7 it will be my first real play of the season. GL buds

I agree totally with everything you said. In my post across the way last nite, I said Cavs will be autofade for me early.:box2: