NBA WED 111809 early thoughts - value hunting

[axp59]

Big Beautiful Board TUE. No early plays since I want the economy of this board to dictate where I place my money. I'm hoping for some serious value since there might be a few square actions.

First thought: PHO/DEN/UTA

where do we stack these teams against each other? according to the books, these teams are EXACTLY the same when playing TOR. There could be a play here.

Second thought: Remember OKC last year. They were a covering machine. They didn't look too bad against MIA TUE either. Hmmm 11.5? Seriously?

Third thought: CLE/WAS. Didn't we already see a preview of this? I remember taking CLE -11.5. Yes they covered but not really. This CLE team has a problem covering the toilet bowl after sitting down to piss.

Just some thoughts. Nothing locked but I'll have some action for entertainment purposes only (action plays).

 

[BIGWave]

And apparently POR and LAL are the same as they both open -11 versus DET................wow how things have changed with DET!!

 

[easterntimezone]

Washington desperate to right their meandering and wayward path at present; Arenas questioning Saunders's strategies and sniping at Butler (who is reciprocating in kind). The return of Jamison should act as a temporary bridge/conduit b/w Arenas and Butler even if he doesn't contribute heavily production-wise - Washington Post blog on the Wizards exploring this notion a couple of days back following the loss to Detroit.

Cleveland was and still is a team fronted and led by one person - sorta like Springsteen and the E Street Band, not the Stones w/ Jagger and Richards as your primary foils... Line looks suspiciously nuanced at 4.5 for the Cavs, begging for action on that side. And in previous years (excluding last season), Washington has played Cleveland tough - especially when Stevenson could actually hit a couple as opposed to becoming a certified member of the brick-mason union.

 

[axp59]

And apparently POR and LAL are the same as they both open -11 versus DET................wow how things have changed with DET!!

EXACTLY BWD!

 

[easterntimezone]

Second thought: Remember OKC last year. They were a covering machine. They didn't look too bad against MIA TUE either. Hmmm 11.5? Seriously?

Something not sitting right w/ this line given that Jameer Nelson is now officially out w/ a torn meniscus in his knee and will undergo surgery; Jason (White Chocolate) Williams and Anthony Johnson now helm your point position? Maybe not in the long run, but do both step up to the plate tomorrow? And have the Thunder matured enough such that they momentarily celebrate their victory over the Heat and then focus on the task at hand? Beat the Spurs in San Antonio, then lose to the Clippers back in Oklahoma City...

 

[axp59]

Seriously ETZ, you need to write a column for somebody. I'm LMFAO. Always worth the read.

I know you have a scientific background but I never see that in your analysis. Just curious why. I'm not knocking your fundamental analysis one bit. It's top notch. Do you run numbers at all ETZ? Always wanted to ask you that.

 

[axp59]

Something not sitting right w/ this line given that Jameer Nelson is now officially out w/ a torn meniscus in his knee and will undergo surgery; Jason (White Chocolate) Williams and Anthony Johnson now helm your point position? Maybe not in the long run, but do both step up to the plate tomorrow? And have the Thunder matured enough such that they momentarily celebrate their victory over the Heat and then focus on the task at hand? Beat the Spurs in San Antonio, then lose to the Clippers back in Oklahoma City...

Excellent observation. I think they went home and thought "LAC=W". Not here I think. Again, 11.5? Seriously?

 

[easterntimezone]

Ax -

Think that tend to err on the game breakdown based on aesthetic appropriation only b/c have seen how over-reliance on numbers can prove to be debilitating at times - did some work for the CDC (Center for Disease Control) 'bout 10 years back and saw how it was easy to manipulate the situation to fit the number crunching, dismissing sample size, risk factors, etc. Will run some preliminary numbers to complement mental impressions; have found this to be of greater utility when surmising totals than sides though.

Also probably b/c started watching hoops from a visual perspective and tried to comprehend the rhythm/cadence - the second major in Philosophy has likely acted as a counterweight to the science background...

 

[axp59]

Understood ETZ. Balance. I can see that. Your fears about numbers manipulation is well founded. I see it all the time with many trend cappers and their self fulfilling queries. You know I'm a huge numbers guy but you also know I rely HEAVILY on my eye. I appreciate your candid response. Catch up with you tomorrow sir and eagerly anticipating that package. :SIB

 

[easterntimezone]

Excellent observation. I think they went home and thought "LAC=W". Not here I think. Again, 11.5? Seriously?

Do think that the Clippers loss can be easily employed by Brooks to counter any lingering feel-good-factor-about-a-road-win. Only caveat that springs to mind is that Johnson played out of his mind last year when Nelson went down w/ torn labrum in his shoulder - it was only for one game and Otis Smith quickly remedied that glaring deficiency in the roster by trading for Alston, but Johnson did come through in the clutch - expect the Magic to stumble more than advance smoothly given this injury for the duration that Nelson is out. Also think that the Magic aren't the same unit as last year in that the absence of Turkoglu hasn't been patched over by recruiting Carter - Hedo more than willing to take the game winning shot whereas Carter just wants to fit in and be friends w/ everyone...

Catch up w/ you (and everyone else) in the morning - will sleep on this and other prospective possibilities amongst Wednesday's card.

 

[40seven]

Just a few thoughts

Just a few thoughts

First, to carry on about OKC, i do believe they are a rising team and at the the top of the mid level teams. They should have no problem with teams below them. But they have under performed often already this year in those games. But last night is the type of victory that can really thrust a team. As for the Spurs victory, they are not the same team. They may pull out a 7 or 8 seed but...anyway. This is really about the Magic and how bad they are playing and how much love they get Vegas is making money off of the Magic this year.

The two games that jumped at me:

Cleveland who may not be able to cover the seat io wonder if the Wiz can either. As bad as Cleveland has played the Wiz are worse and 4 or 5 points seems like a gift.

PTB now this is a team not getting enough respect yet this is a top 5 team in the league, i say 5 so i do not get yelled at( i know poor grammer). I would take them ML at home against every team in the NBA. PTB -11 against an East Coast team on a long road trip back to back....

Boy have a said too much, my early top play is PTB, if Hedo plays for TR i may give it some attention too more later

 

[peteyboy]

Hey fellas,
Love the analysis going on here. It's entertaining and informative.

I agree wholeheartedly with your assessments about the Thunder and the Wiz. In fact, those were two of the games that jumped off the card to me last night. The Wiz are actually going to be my biggest play of the year so far. Probably gonna dump some ML in there as well.

Here's my thinking:
1) I know they have absolutely sucked so far this year, but this is NOT that bad of a team in my opinion, and the worm will turn. I thought it might be against the Pistons the other night, but they were undermanned. I really feel like this is a great spot.

2) Jamison and Foye will both be back. They will finally have their TEAM together.

3) Cavs coming off a back to back

4) Wiz were one of a couple teams to beat the Cavs twice last year.

5) No Shaq or Varejao... and possibly no Jamario Moon/Delonte West

6) I've been following one of their beat writers, and the mood seems to be that the Wiz are getting desperate, realizing their season may be slipping away. They need this one much more than the Cavs.

7) And also, Gilbert is bringing back Agent Zero AND Hibachi. I don't think we can underscore the importance of this. :142smilie For all his misgivings and arrogance, I still think that he is one of the top three most creative and funniest players in the league when he's in a good mood. His latest: he opened up a twitter account, but will not start posting until he has a million followers. He has 969. kurby kurby kurby kurby

I can't find a real good reason to take Cleveland, other than that they are undermanned on the road and may summarily put forth a colossal effort. I'm going the other way.

I agree completely about the thunder, but don't really have much to add.

Also, I don't know if you guys use twitter for the informational side of all this, but it is anextremely helpful and functional way to find out information quickly (before the books) about which players may be out, and also the state of different teams around the league. I follow about 15-20 different beat writers, along with some others. If any of you want some suggestions as to who to follow, I'd be happy to share my list.

Thanks again for the detailed analysis you guys. It is much appreciated.

PB

 

[axp59]

Love the way this thread is starting. I'll be back after the west coast move the numbers around a bit.

PB, please do share that list. :director: That's good stuff man. Thanks

 

[peteyboy]

Here's my list:

editlease no personal direct links on the forum :admin

You can either read the whole thing in full (you don't have to have a twitter account), or you can pick and choose who you want to follow.
:toast:

 

[BillyBatts]

Leans

Leans

GREAT info already fellas:hail

Nice call on the Nugs over last night as well Ax:00hour


I really felt strongly about the OKC play before I came in here. Magic are still overvalued and are seriously banged up. Don't think the B2B will hurt OKC mainly because they have young legs for the most part, just worry about the letdown factor.

Also looking at
Miami +7.5--- Time for a hiccup from Hawks??

Bobs-Sixers UNDER 182.5---What is the most Cha has scored on the road this year....80??

TWolves +6---Can someone run trends on playing back to back after playing the Suns?

NY-Ind Under 214-- Pacers play pretty good D at home.

Blazers-Stones Over 179---Just seems low, gut feeling

Let's get em fellas,:box2: thanks again for all the input.

 

[axp59]

Here's my list:


editlease no personal direct links on the forum :admin


You can either read the whole thing in full (you don't have to have a twitter account), or you can pick and choose who you want to follow.
:toast:

Many thanks PB. That's a nice list and I can see how this could come in handy. One question. I just bookmarked this page, is that enough? The updates just happen right? Thanks

 

[peteyboy]

Yep. It will just update as people post. Beyond that, if you want to open up your own twitter account, you can follow these people individually. Then using an application like tweetdeck, you can have them delivered to you in realtime. That's what I do, it's a bit easier than having to refresh the page, and I can also check it on my phone. Best of luck tonight! :00hour

 

[Joe_Vienna]

leans

Knicks @ Indians U214

Nets @ Bucks O184,5 :shrug:

Pistons @ Blazers O179,5

 

[softballmaniac]

Ax..ChumpChange..Grindstone..peteyboy..40seven..BillyBatts..easterntimezone..BIGWave..Barts185..frogster..Griffin85s..Truckin'..JoeVienna.....
Just want to say thanks to all of you guys for sharing all this great stuff on a nightly basis. The time, research, work and effort everyone puts in is priceless. I feel helpless as i am unable to contribute on this level. If there is anything i can do for you guys, please don't hesitate to ask. :shrug: I am currently laid off, so i have a lot of time on my hands. Construction is very slow. I live in New Jersey, so if there's anyone from here, it would be great to meet up.. Ax, i should have that sent to you soon with what i talked about across the street. Just a matter of getting it typed up. Best of luck to all today. :toast:

 

[40seven]

Softball

Softball

I am so sorry to hear of your situation and Pray it works out soon.

As for your kind words you are right those other guys are brililant and deserve thanks.

One bit of advice, be careful gaming when you have low funds and do not bet thinking it is the solution it can be dangerous, but with these guys help maybe we can win a few.


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