NBA WED 111809 early thoughts - value hunting

[ChumpChange]

Ax..ChumpChange..Grindstone..peteyboy..40seven..BillyBatts..easterntimezone..BIGWave..Barts185..frogster..Griffin85s..Truckin'..JoeVienna.....
Just want to say thanks to all of you guys for sharing all this great stuff on a nightly basis. The time, research, work and effort everyone puts in is priceless. I feel helpless as i am unable to contribute on this level. If there is anything i can do for you guys, please don't hesitate to ask. :shrug: I am currently laid off, so i have a lot of time on my hands. Construction is very slow. I live in New Jersey, so if there's anyone from here, it would be great to meet up.. Ax, i should have that sent to you soon with what i talked about across the street. Just a matter of getting it typed up. Best of luck to all today. :toast:

SOFTBALL ... hope construction work picks up for you and those in your area ... here in Michigan construction has come to a STOP ... some folks are really hurting.

Tonight ... Golden State is playing its 5th of a 5 game road trip and a B2B as well ... they are the highesr scoring team in the NBA to this point and tonight will be playing the NBA's top defense ... I look for the Celtics to show them that defense is the master in the NBA ... under 211 1/2 looks like my play for tonight.

 

[canuckfan77]

Tonight ... Golden State is playing its 5th of a 5 game road trip and a B2B as well ... they are the highesr scoring team in the NBA to this point and tonight will be playing the NBA's top defense ... I look for the Celtics to show them that defense is the master in the NBA ... under 211 1/2 looks like my play for tonight.

Line has dropped to 209 already.

 

[Truckin']

I liike Alanta tonight at home to hold Miami around 80. Hawks should win this easily by double digits.
Hopefully Haslem doesn't play makes it even better, O'neal & Chalmers both banged up and that doesn't bode well against a physical Atlanta team. This is Miami's 3rd road game of the season 2-0 but this will be there first real test.

Possible under here even though the line as moved down a good bit.

Kind of like the Wizards but they are just to unpredictable.
Cleveland opened -5 w/88% on Clev the line has dropped to 4.5 91% on the Clev ML. Its still early but there are almost twice as many bets on this game as any other on the board 4600 to 2700.

Going to take a close look at the Dallas / San Ant game see if I can't find an edge. Might be the Spurs night tonight

AX nice hit on the Denver game you hit the bullseye w/ that read.

BOL to all tonight

 

[40seven]

Truck

Truck

How do you know the amount of action on a game?

 

[axp59]

Softball, hang in there pal. I'm with forty, prayers for you buddy. Also, send that when you can. Love to see it.

back to the business end.

CHA/PHI open 181sh and has worked it way to 186sh. Anybody see value creeping in for the Under?



be back in an hour or so. going out for my daily run. I'll go into my final routine then. peace

 

[Truckin']

How do you know the amount of action on a game?

at Sports Insights it tells you the number of bets on each game.
It doesn't break down ML / Spread / Total / or Parlays, but it shows you which game is bet the heaviest which is very important IMO.

Get my email from Jack if they allow that I know a place where you can get this all free.

BOL

 

[BillyBatts]

Lean

Lean

Interesting trend on my Houston lean towards under. These minutes last night were also vs a run in gun team, the Suns. Joe, can you see how teams to on a B2B after playing the Suns please? Thanks.

Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day.

 

[Randercity]

My thoughts and early plays...

My thoughts and early plays...

Enough has been written already concerning the OKC/MAGIC game, and all I can say is I agree with nearly all of it. MAGIC are still being "lined" as the team that lost the FINALS, but they are NOT that team. TURK is gone, LEWIS hasn't played, and now NELSON is gone again, although they did play w/o him last year as well. DURANT and company may not win back to back in FLA, and my main concern is all those youngsters getting freaky all night in South Beach. If we could find out when they left MIAMI, that would be nice info to have. I mean, if they stayed all night and left this morning, that would be a bad sign for me... I do think they come to play tonight and hang within the number though.

OKC -12.5 *** TRIPLE PLAY ***

BOS has lost two in a row and are now rested at home waiting for the 7 man rotation known as the WARRIORS to come to town after losing last night to CLEV in a tough fast paced game. This is the end of a 5 game roadie for GST, and I'm thinking they can't wait to get home.... I don't think we see much from them tonight, they are a predominantly jump shooting team, and it's hard to get those jumpers to fall when you got no legs. BOS wins this one easily, but they will be emphasizing defense tonight... this game doesn't come near 200.

BOS Under 209.5 *** TRIPLE PLAY ***

Clippers at the GRIZZLIES... they keep posting these high number on the GRIZZ for some reason, but I don't buy it. They have lots of offense but need the right team to get out and run and the CLIPPERS are NOT it. LAC, especially w/o Gordon are mostly setting up inside with Kaman/Camby/Thornton and this does not bode well for a fast paced game. LAC rebounds very well, as does MEM, but with the CLIPPERS having played last night in Mardi Gras land, I see them a bit sluggish tonight and they have been faltering hard in the 2H of games. Looking for this one to be less than 190.

MEM Under 199.5 ** DOUBLE PLAY **

TOR got blown out 2H vs DENVER last night and now have to fly up and over the Rockies and go north to UTAH. That altitude can sap alot of energy from anyone, and when you're short-handed as TOR is w/o HEDO (who may play tonight) I just don't see them having the goods to run as they like. Also, DEN tore them up inside last night and when they doubled low, kicked out for the 3. UTAH has a similar inside game with BOOZER/MILSAP and can hit 3's if needed. D WILL is back tonight after missing the last two due to family issues, so he may be off his game as well. Add it all up and I see two teams struggling on offense for at least part of this game, and it doesn't take many "bad" minutes to keep a game under 210.

TOR Under 209 ** DOUBLE PLAY **

Someone already posted this about DET getting the same points from PORT as they did in LAKERS game??? :shrug: LAKERS were blowing DET out by 28 only to once again give up the huge lead with their bench.... PORT is the best defensive team in the NBA stats wise, and I don't see them letting DET get to 80 points here, and PORT isn't exactly the GSW so they would have to score nearly 100 to get this game over. I think we see a college type score tonight in OREGON.... like 84-74

PORT Under 176.5 * Single Play *

Good luck.... and see ya at HT~!:SIB

 

[Griffin8s]

SOFTBALL ... hope construction work picks up for you and those in your area ... here in Michigan construction has come to a STOP ... some folks are really hurting.

Tonight ... Golden State is playing its 5th of a 5 game road trip and a B2B as well ... they are the highesr scoring team in the NBA to this point and tonight will be playing the NBA's top defense ... I look for the Celtics to show them that defense is the master in the NBA ... under 211 1/2 looks like my play for tonight.

I thought this samething last night with the Cavs. But as we seen it didn't work out. Cavs just don't seem to be playing the D like they have in the past but just out score the other team. Cavs have the best 3 pt shooting % right now and that is what killed the U last night. I like the U better in this game as I think the Celtics can control this game better then the Cavs did last night. I know it your homer Ax but you have to have some opinion on this one we can use.

:topic: Softball, thanks for the nice words to the guys and myself. These guys do alot of hard work and are on the right side most of the time. I on the other hand do not deserve to be on the list mentioned as I seem to only throw out useless unwanted info that I seem to be full of.:142smilie
Sorry about your job situation and hope it turns around very soon! I recently quit my 9yr job (I know smart timing ay) took a way lower position just to make ends meet right now and tonight have a interview with a real good company which came looking for me once they found out I quit my last one. Plus, they have nothing to do with the career I had before, it's a whole new direction. Point is opportunities can come from anywhere when you least expect them. GL

 

[easterntimezone]

Softball, hang in there pal. I'm with forty, prayers for you buddy.

+ 1

 

[BillyBatts]

Softball, hang in there pal. I'm with forty, prayers for you buddy. Also, send that when you can. Love to see it.

back to the business end.

CHA/PHI open 181sh and has worked it way to 186sh. Anybody see value creeping in for the Under?



be back in an hour or so. going out for my daily run. I'll go into my final routine then. peace

This was one of my initial leans, I then capped the game at 182. The one thing that really makes me like this under, is the fact that the Bobs can really struggle to score points on the road. In 3 out of thier 5 road games, they've failed to score 80 :scared In those 3, they svg a whopping total of 71. Philly is no Lockdown "D" but I see Charlotte scoring in the low 80's at best. I see an 85-82 type game. :director:

 

[Truckin']

I thought this samething last night with the Cavs. But as we seen it didn't work out. Cavs just don't seem to be playing the D like they have in the past but just out score the other team. Cavs have the best 3 pt shooting % right now and that is what killed the U last night. I like the U better in this game as I think the Celtics can control this game better then the Cavs did last night. I know it your homer Ax but you have to have some opinion on this one we can use.

:topic: Softball, thanks for the nice words to the guys and myself. These guys do alot of hard work and are on the right side most of the time. I on the other hand do not deserve to be on the list mentioned as I seem to only throw out useless unwanted info that I seem to be full of.:142smilie
Sorry about your job situation and hope it turns around very soon! I recently quit my 9yr job (I know smart timing ay) took a way lower position just to make ends meet right now and tonight have a interview with a real good company which came looking for me once they found out I quit my last one. Plus, they have nothing to do with the career I had before, it's a whole new direction. Point is opportunities can come from anywhere when you least expect them. GL

+1 :mj07:

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Very bad spot for the Raptors, playing Suns (sunday), Nuggets (yesterday) and Jazz (today) all tough away games, last two on high altitude.
Jazz has 3 days fresh legs, not happy Sloan and big men able to dominate inside vs no-D-Bargnani. Turk is probably missing as well, D Will back for Jazz...



How's this for a bad spot for OKC:

the league, after an away win as +5 dog, playing away on no rest as +10 dog: 1-31 SU (avg loss, -15p), 12-20 ATS, since 2001

Like their style tho, even Sefolosha who's killing my FG% in the fantasy but is turning to be a really good def specialist. But why such line and then movement, is there some kind of young-legs-get-a-night-off-in-a-tough-b2b-after-an-excellent-win kind of info floating around...

 

[BIGWave]

I liike Alanta tonight at home to hold Miami around 80. Hawks should win this easily by double digits. Hopefully Haslem doesn't play makes it even better, O'neal & Chalmers both banged up and that doesn't bode well against a physical Atlanta team. This is Miami's 3rd road game of the season 2-0 but this will be there first real test.

Possible under here even though the line as moved down a good bit.

Kind of like the Wizards but they are just to unpredictable.
Cleveland opened -5 w/88% on Clev the line has dropped to 4.5 91% on the Clev ML. Its still early but there are almost twice as many bets on this game as any other on the board 4600 to 2700.

Going to take a close look at the Dallas / San Ant game see if I can't find an edge. Might be the Spurs night tonight

AX nice hit on the Denver game you hit the bullseye w/ that read.

BOL to all tonight

I agree here......................MIA made a few pushes to make it close last night, but fell well short. Interesting lines for both these teams today then........

Everyone loves D-Wade - myself included - one of the good ones. So here they get all these points against the Hawks........................oh the public will love this. Now, if MIA can't look after a young athletic team at home, then have to travel to take on a young athletic team with rest.........I think ATL will look after MIA tonight.

Now, the other team involved - OKC - now get more than a handful of points against the Magic............seems like a setup to me. A team that just beat the Heat, now only has to stay within double digits of this ORL team................hmmmmmm. Seems too easy. Off an emotional win on the road, travelling and playing a waiting and rested ORL team.......OKC would worry me.

CLEV line seems waaaay fishy............
This team needs to develop that killer instinct to put away teams. They made the game last night far more interesting than it should have been........with no semblance of defense - as all us on the under know.....

Now this same GS team has just as many points against BOS tonight. We - and Vegas - all know how the public has such short term memory. They will love all these points tonight - but I like BOS intense nature to look after this patch-work team that is only dressing 7 players at the moment I think..................1st Q or half number will be interesting.

HOU jumped out to a big lead last night and then lost to this surprising PHX team..........now travelling and playing a rested waiting MINN team - though they are 1-10...............

Toronto and NJ both looked terrible last night. Toronto was sooo tired in the 2nd half of last nights game, and the DEN / UTAH trip is a tough one with the elevation. If UTAH was playing like they were in synch, I would not hesitate taking them tonight. As it is, I still could not imagine taking NJ or TO tonight.....................ML parlay against them tonight...................hmmm????

GL to all tonight. :0corn
FWIW - an excellent capper likes BUFF-4 tonight in NCAAF for those that are interested or may have comments. :toast:

 

[bleedingpurple]

I know they are going to cover a few games but the T - Wolves are just brutal. Can't put money on them in any situation.. Also they do not have much of a home court advantage.. Crowd size is anemic and the organization is almost trying to give the tickets away.. I would wait until after all star break to put any type of wager because they should improve and are well coached but now the talent isn't close to coming together.

 

[BIGWave]

Very bad spot for the Raptors, playing Suns (sunday), Nuggets (yesterday) and Jazz (today) all tough away games, last two on high altitude.
Jazz has 3 days fresh legs, not happy Sloan and big men able to dominate inside vs no-D-Bargnani. Turk is probably missing as well, D Will back for Jazz...

How's this for a bad spot for OKC:

the league, after an away win as +5 dog, playing away on no rest as +10 dog: 1-31 SU (avg loss, -15p), 12-20 ATS, since 2001

Like their style tho, even Sefolosha who's killing my FG% in the fantasy but is turning to be a really good def specialist. But why such line and then movement, is there some kind of young-legs-get-a-night-off-in-a-tough-b2b-after-an-excellent-win kind of info floating around...

Totally agree here................really hope UTAH isn't looking ahead to TNT tomorrow versus the Spurs, but think they need to focus on each win one at a time right now.................they should see this tired Raps team as prime for a W tonight

 

[softballmaniac]

Guys, thank you soo much for the kind words. Became a Union Carpenter 25 years ago out of high school (just gave up my age LOL) I've been in this situation before and battled back. I'm certainly not alone. The economy is horrible for millions of people right now. Thank God i get a day or two a week doing my own stuff to get by.
O.K. lets see if i can some how add anything to this forum by putting some trends out there i get off my sports pager... Forgive me if this is just clutter...

Clev is 13-26 under if total is b/w 190 &199.5
Wash is 21-42 playing with revenge

Mia is 66-99 under off SU loss as a fav
Atl is 10-1 ATS this year

Char is 35-17 ATS off ATS win
Philly is 11-22 under as home fav

NY is 13-4 ATS as a rd dog of 6.5 to 12
Indy is 16-6 over off BB ATS wins

OKC is 13-4 over away playing on BB days
Orl is 9-1 ATS revenging a loss by 10 or more

:shrug: :shrug: :shrug:

 

[40seven]

This is amazing

This is amazing

I must admit that I am now more confused then when I started.

I have decided that I am not playing 4,5,6 plays a day when I do to much ShXX breaks loose, i may not always win my top two plays, but it seems that if i worked it down to 2, I do better ALOT and the last three weekends of CFB have been brutal.

But the NBA has been much better, I may not have my one play but i will.

Leans for me

76ers I think the books are moving the line because lots of folks think SJackson could turn around the Bob's LOL, but it may for a week or two. The total going up and the spread going down is the SJ factor, I am not buying Lean Philly.

The Wiz...all has been said

PTB 'cus I am a huge fan. Can the Stones look that bad two in a row? Charlie V what happened?

Boston Under 'cus Chump says so and that is normally enough for me. I will be back later BOLTA

 

[Truckin']

Very bad spot for the Raptors, playing Suns (sunday), Nuggets (yesterday) and Jazz (today) all tough away games, last two on high altitude.
Jazz has 3 days fresh legs, not happy Sloan and big men able to dominate inside vs no-D-Bargnani. Turk is probably missing as well, D Will back for Jazz...



How's this for a bad spot for OKC:

the league, after an away win as +5 dog, playing away on no rest as +10 dog: 1-31 SU (avg loss, -15p), 12-20 ATS, since 2001
Like their style tho, even Sefolosha who's killing my FG% in the fantasy but is turning to be a really good def specialist. But why such line and then movement, is there some kind of young-legs-get-a-night-off-in-a-tough-b2b-after-an-excellent-win kind of info floating around...

63% taking the pts so far in this one

 

[jagerfury]

at Sports Insights it tells you the number of bets on each game.
It doesn't break down ML / Spread / Total / or Parlays, but it shows you which game is bet the heaviest which is very important IMO.

Get my email from Jack if they allow that I know a place where you can get this all free.

BOL

Sports Book Spy gives the same information, but also indicates a percentage of (I've always assumed money, should check that)the amount on either side. 62%-48% on the over or under for example. These sites say they are getting this information off the same service as Vegas, like tracking tote odds/dollars on line, but I've never been able to get an answer on whether on not even this information can be manipulated by devious sorts...?