NBA WED 120909 early thoughts - value hunting

S

Slicer

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Updated Final Accuscore Projections for Tonight

NBA:

Accuscore report NBA Totals:

Last night 3-4 vs Closing Line, Avg Variance from predicted score vs acutal score: 15.45/game

Tonight:

Clev/Hou 189.4
GS/NJ 214.5
NO/MN 193
Det/Phi 187
Por/Ind 188
Tor/Mil 202.2
Ut/LAL 207.8
Chi/ATL 195
Sac/SA 200.9

No play in NBA, sticking with my college guns
 
B

barts185

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JBrilman said:
I SAW THIS ACROSS THE STREET POSTED BY MR BATOR

I think it's worthwhile to use trends with relatively few samples if the trends also reveal large pointspread margins. For example, the Lakers have gone under thirteen times in a row at the Staples Center when their opponent was seeking revenge for a loss in which Kobe had torched them for 30 points or more. The last time this situation came up was on Sunday, November 22nd when Oklahoma City came to town. Just 19 days earlier, Kobe had scored 31 points against the Thunder in a 101-98 overtime win. The rematch at Staples had a posted total of 200 and the game stayed under easily, 101-85. What makes that trend worth paying attention to is that those 13 unders have covered by an average of 12 points per game. I've won a few times using this trend and not even Sasha Vujacic or Jordan Farmar can come close to screwing it up in garbage time by jacking up quick jumpshots and not getting back on defense.

If anyone cares to see this trend again put to the test, you can do so tomorrow night when the Utah Jazz come calling to Staples. Kobe scored 31 points against Utah in Game 5 of last season's first round series as the Lakers waved goodbye to the Jazz, 4 games to 1.
Click to expand...


Okay, first my traditional rant about cherry picking the start spot for a trend.

They could have just said starting at the beginning of the 2008 season, it's 0-12, which actually increases the margin by which it went under (games went under by an average of 12.1).

But to get that extra win, they went back to the last game of the 2007 season, a playoff game. That game only went under by 3, so it decreases the average amount it went under to 11.4

Of course, for the rest of that season, it was a not so spectacular 6 overs, 5 unders.


Now onto the SMALL (okay, not so small) problem with this tend.

It refers to SAME SEASON REVENGE. This game doesn't qualify.


For those who care to check it out:

team=Lakers and P:W and H and Lakers:Kobe Bryant:p:points>=30 and P:season=season and date>=20080612

O/U: 0-13-0 (-11.4) avg total: 206.2


vs.

team=Lakers and P:W and H and Lakers:Kobe Bryant:p:points>=30 and P:season!=season and date>=20080612

O/U: 4-3-0 (-0.5) avg total: 206.9



Total on tonight's game: up from 204 to 206.5

Hmmm... 206.9 - 0.5 (from the trend that would apply, not the same season revenge) = 206.4

Seems awfully close to the current line of 206.5


Of course, it could still go under by a bunch, but this game doesn't fit into the specified trend.


Good Luck,
Bart
 
Last edited:
JBrilman

JBrilman

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barts185 said:
It refers to SAME SEASON REVENGE. This game doesn't qualify.

For those who care to check it out:

team=Lakers and P:W and H and Lakers:Kobe Bryant:p:points>=30 and P:season=season and date>=20080612

O/U: 0-13-0 (-11.4) avg total: 206.2

vs.

team=Lakers and P:W and H and Lakers:Kobe Bryant:p:points>=30 and P:season!=season and date>=20080612

O/U: 4-3-0 (-0.5) avg total: 206.9

Total on tonight's game: up from 204 to 206.5

Hmmm... 206.9 - 0.5 (from the trend that would apply, not the same season revenge) = 206.4

Seems awfully close to the current line of 206.5

Of course, it could still go under by a bunch, but this game doesn't fit into the specified trend.
Good Luck,
Bart
Click to expand...

It doesn't say same season revenge. It says revenge for the last game we played AND Kobe scored 30. There are 2 things that need to happen in that instance and Bator never says same season revenge.

With that being said I havent locked it in yet either...
 
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barts185

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JBrilman said:
It doesn't say same season revenge. It says revenge for the last game we played AND Kobe scored 30. There are 2 things that need to happen in that instance and Bator never says same season revenge.

With that being said I havent locked it in yet either...
Click to expand...

Sorry if I wasn't clear.

I know he doesn't say same season revenge. That's the problem.

If you just specify any revenge, along with the Kobe points, you don't get the 0-13. When the revenge is from last season (as this game is), you get 4-3.


BTW, in case this came across wrong, the rant wasn't directed at you, it was directed at whomever came up with this and then incorrectly reported it.

Take Care,
Bart
 
Last edited:
JBrilman

JBrilman

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Sorry to hijack the thread guys just looking for some info...

Slicer are you at all concerned with USD playing Jeckyl and Hyde with there home efforts vs away efforts?

other leans in NCABB feedback appreciated

La Salle
Providence
L. Tech
Boise St
Wash St
Pacific
 
grindstone

grindstone

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axp59 said:
No totals for me today.

Got 3 sides for action

[712] MINNESOTA +3
[715] SACRAMENTO +12?
[717] UTAH +10?

BOL
Click to expand...

Yes Sir got the same ones last night. Glad we are on the same page Sir.;) . Let's have another day like at the Berkshires.

GLTA
 
K

kenman

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barts185 said:
Okay, first my traditional rant about cherry picking the start spot for a trend.

They could have just said starting at the beginning of the 2008 season, it's 0-12, which actually increases the margin by which it went under (games went under by an average of 12.1).

But to get that extra win, they went back to the last game of the 2007 season, a playoff game. That game only went under by 3, so it decreases the average amount it went under to 11.4

Of course, for the rest of that season, it was a not so spectacular 6 overs, 5 unders.


Now onto the SMALL (okay, not so small) problem with this tend.

It refers to SAME SEASON REVENGE. This game doesn't qualify.


For those who care to check it out:

team=Lakers and P:W and H and Lakers:Kobe Bryant:p:points>=30 and P:season=season and date>=20080612

O/U: 0-13-0 (-11.4) avg total: 206.2


vs.

team=Lakers and P:W and H and Lakers:Kobe Bryant:p:points>=30 and P:season!=season and date>=20080612

O/U: 4-3-0 (-0.5) avg total: 206.9



Total on tonight's game: up from 204 to 206.5

Hmmm... 206.9 - 0.5 (from the trend that would apply, not the same season revenge) = 206.4

Seems awfully close to the current line of 206.5


Of course, it could still go under by a bunch, but this game doesn't fit into the specified trend.


Good Luck,
Bart
Click to expand...

How about this for the OVER...

t:team=Jazz and playoffs=0 and 0<line and 50<=100.*p:field goals made/p:field goals attempted and p:season=season and 20060329<=date

O/U: 23-4-0 (12.2) avg total: 201.9 :confused: :confused: :confused:
 
S

Slicer

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JBrilman said:
Sorry to hijack the thread guys just looking for some info...

Slicer are you at all concerned with USD playing Jeckyl and Hyde with there home efforts vs away efforts?

other leans in NCABB feedback appreciated

La Salle
Providence
L. Tech
Boise St
Wash St
Pacific
Click to expand...


No, I really like the fact the Lobos were slighted out of the TOP 25 this week @ 8-0. Steve Alford being a descendant from the Bobby Knight school will be intense on his guys to keep the pressure on these next 2 road games to get to the top 25 ranking. Look for intense effort from them tonight.

On your other leans, liked Lasalle, I lean GW, AZ due to line drop, agree on Boise St, lean Idaho at +7 now, and Cal is true jekyl/hyde team but I lean towards Cal. Also UCONN in the big game but these are just leans and didnt qualify for my 1 GEM of the DAY.
 
A

arabmoney

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thanx fellas, i laid off it, hey ax wats ur opinion on minn/no, new orleans have chris paul bak, figure they will play better then the last time they both met
 
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