NBA WED 121609 early thoughts - value hunting

BillyBatts

BillyBatts

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Updated leans

Updated leans

Have alot of leans for today. Gonna try to scale down to 2 or 3 plays. Be back later this afternoon
Leans
Grizzlies
Magic and over. Raps terrible on B2B, especially on defense.
Pacers under
Nets
Twolves and under
Thunder (possible POD)
Nuggets over
Kings
---Also like Hornets but dont like to go against Ax, but if it drops to 4 I may have to take them, and hopefully we can middle it.

Can someone run a query on teams that are on the 2nd of a B2B after playing Suns? Someone ran it earlier this year, and think theyre was a good over trend, so possibly a Spurs over play as well. Thanks in advance.
 
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C

ChumpChange

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My leans for tonight ...

Toro / Orl under 208
Atla / Mem under 207
Ind / Char under 191
LAC / Minn under 188
 
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40seven

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wed leans

wed leans

I just wanted to give my leans. I totally agree with Ax on the tendency has been the dogs but this week, I am seeing small home fav's doing well also.

I am out in Vegas and glad to see a great board tonight.

Lean NOH i see this line falling thriugh the day. The Public is all over the Stones and they are not the same on the road as they are at home.

I have already played a Half unit on the Under. These two teams really match up well with DP depleted with injuries. I hope to see an under 4 before the tip.

As for the dogs.
OKC Home dog.
76erts Home dog
Bucks Home Dog.
Nets Home Dog, this one is interesting I know B2B but they got 14 at Ckev last night and 9 soon to be 10 at home to a poor road team. 9or10!

Rapt's who match upo well with OM and you know they are going to play hard, I do not agree they play bad defense, ok it is true but it is with teams with great guards and small forwards. Just too many points IMHO.

Last TWolves playing with spirit at home at basically a pick and the Public all over the Clippers, I cannot believe I am saying this "Public all over Clippers" on thw road.

Lastly WW SK Over 213, this will be a layup fest
 
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JCWhy

JCWhy

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Locked in: Spurs/Warriors O214

Strong Leans: Raptors +11 & Grizz/Hawks O206.5

Leans: Raptors/Magic O207.5


I usually don't bet too many overs but my numbers are makin me look at these three today :scared
 
Joe_Vienna

Joe_Vienna

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BillyBatts said:
Have alot of leans for today. Gonna try to scale down to 2 or 3 plays. Be back later this afternoon
Leans
Grizzlies
Magic and over. Raps terrible on B2B, especially on defense.
Pacers under
Nets
Twolves and under
Thunder (possible POD)
Nuggets over
Kings
---Also like Hornets but dont like to go against Ax, but if it drops to 4 I may have to take them, and hopefully we can middle it.

Can someone run a query on teams that are on the 2nd of a B2B after playing Suns? Someone ran it earlier this year, and think theyre was a good over trend, so possibly a Spurs over play as well. Thanks in advance.
Click to expand...

po:team=Suns and season=2009 and rest=0

<table bgcolor="#ffffff"><tbody><tr><th>O/U:</th> <td>2-5-0 (-8.8)</td> <td>avg total: 198.9</td> <th bgcolor="#ffffff">
</th> <td bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <th bgcolor="#ffffff">
</th> <td bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <th bgcolor="#ffffff">
</th> <td bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <th bgcolor="#ffffff">
</th> <td bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <th bgcolor="#ffffff">
</th> <td bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td> <th bgcolor="#ffffff">
</th> <td bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
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40seven

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Jazz and Stones

Jazz and Stones

Are John Morrison plays and that is why the public is all over them that and Ax liks the Stones FYI

I will stay away
 
BillyBatts

BillyBatts

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ReadySetGo said:
You guys think the Raptors play a little D tonight? If I had to say I don't know the letter D is even in their vocabulary.
Click to expand...


This is what the Raps have given up on the 2nd night of a back to back, and on the road like tonight.:director:

129, 104, 116 (at charlotte), 146 :scared , 78(at chicago who doesn't score), and 117

Magic have scored 100+ in 7 out of last 8.


2 Things scare me on the over though. Even though the Raps play lousy def on the 2nd of a b2b, they also have trouble scoring. And the 2nd thing is that Chump likes the under.
Magic allow 97 at home and Raps avg 103 on the road, so if you give them the avg of that, 100 points, and put in the current spread of 11, thats 111-100. The current total opened up one pt over that at 212 and has dropped 5 points. Seeing value in the over.

Joe V--Thanks for the query on the Spurs also sir. :toast:
 
B

BobB

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axp59 said:
Why do yo have your fingers crossed Truck? :) are you hoping for a 1U play? here's how I usually work my overnight plays. Some of these guys can tell ya I've always done this. I bet a fraction to lock in the action. Things happen overnight and we need an out if necessary. I recap games on game day and go full or buy back. There are times when I can't see doing either and just let the bet ride as is. For DET, I'm in 1/2U. I'll read the reports tomorrow and talk to a few people then I'll make the decision.

My friend Grindstone has been kind enough to track my plays since I went live on the MON after Thanksgiving. Dog plays are 86.36% and Overall is 65.63%. BTW, thanks GS. I mention this because if you want to go 1U, I'm still using the same routine to find these live dogs and it's not doing badly. BOL as always! :)
Click to expand...

what does it mean when you say you went live?
 
BillyBatts

BillyBatts

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Plays

Plays

BillyBatts said:
Have alot of leans for today. Gonna try to scale down to 2 or 3 plays. Be back later this afternoon
Leans
Grizzlies
Magic and over. Raps terrible on B2B, especially on defense.
Pacers under
Nets
Twolves and under
Thunder (possible POD)
Nuggets over
Kings
---Also like Hornets but dont like to go against Ax, but if it drops to 4 I may have to take them, and hopefully we can middle it.



Kings-3
Clips -TWolves under 188
Spurs-GSW under 214.5



Can someone run a query on teams that are on the 2nd of a B2B after playing Suns? Someone ran it earlier this year, and think theyre was a good over trend, so possibly a Spurs over play as well. Thanks in advance.
Click to expand...

Plays for tonight :director:

Kings-3
Clips -TWolves under 188
Spurs-GSW under 214.5


Good luck tonight fellas :spotting:
 
K

kaliballa15

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axp59 said:
I won't be around WED. This is my bet sheet for 121609. It's easy to figure out. You can almost tell what games to look out for. I've always preached about knowing what numbers to look for before the books release theirs. This is the sheet I use to spot overnight plays. Merry XMas. I'm only sharing this since there's been some interest in my betting sheet. This is only the summary page. Use it or ignore it. Record speaks for itself. You make the call and as always, I wish everyone the very best outcome.

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 600pt;" width="800" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 145pt;" width="193"> <col style="width: 134pt;" width="179" span="2"> <col style="width: 94pt;" width="125"> <col style="width: 93pt;" width="124"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl26" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 145pt;" x:num="" width="193" height="17">121609</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 134pt;" width="179">Play V if line is better than</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 134pt;" width="179">Play H if line is better than</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 94pt;" width="125">Play O if line is <=</td> <td class="xl26" style="width: 93pt;" width="124">Play U if line is >=</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Memphis at Atlanta</td> <td class="xl25">+16.5</td> <td class="xl25">+7</td> <td class="xl25">202.5</td> <td class="xl25">217</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Charlotte at Indiana</td> <td class="xl25">+9</td> <td class="xl25">+.5</td> <td class="xl25">177.5</td> <td class="xl25">200.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Toronto at Orlando</td> <td class="xl25">+10.5</td> <td class="xl25">+1.5</td> <td class="xl25">194</td> <td class="xl25">216.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Cleveland at Philadelphia</td> <td class="xl25">0</td> <td class="xl25">+8.5</td> <td class="xl25">187</td> <td class="xl25">198.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Utah at New Jersey</td> <td class="xl25">+5</td> <td class="xl25">+9</td> <td class="xl25">185.5</td> <td class="xl25">207.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">L.A. Lakers at Milwaukee</td> <td class="xl25">0</td> <td class="xl25">+10</td> <td class="xl25">196</td> <td class="xl25">203</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">L.A. Clippers at Minnesota</td> <td class="xl25">+7.5</td> <td class="xl25">+5.5</td> <td class="xl25">185</td> <td class="xl25">202</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Detroit at New Orleans</td> <td class="xl25">+5.5</td> <td class="xl25">+6</td> <td class="xl25">186</td> <td class="xl25">201</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Dallas at Oklahoma City</td> <td class="xl25">0</td> <td class="xl25">+6</td> <td class="xl25">186</td> <td class="xl25">198</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Houston at Denver</td> <td class="xl25">+10</td> <td class="xl25">+2</td> <td class="xl25">191</td> <td class="xl25">217.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">San Antonio at Golden State</td> <td class="xl25">+1.5</td> <td class="xl25">+9.5</td> <td class="xl25">192.5</td> <td class="xl25">224.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Click to expand...

So would New Jersey be a play now as well? I have them at +9 at my book.
 
BillyBatts

BillyBatts

IlliniBill
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grindstone said:
Hey AX what about TOR + 11, looks like everything lines up.
Click to expand...

TREAD LIGHTLY
:mj12:

Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
Raptors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater
Raptors are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
 
easterntimezone

easterntimezone

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grindstone said:
Hey AX what about TOR + 11, looks like everything lines up.
Click to expand...

GS -

I'd be careful w/ that game - Hedo apologists may be subscribe to a romantic fancy and see him going in there and eking out a victory; do take into consideration that this is Carter against his old team in his home state - also that Van Gundy knows Hedo's tendencies/etc. - and if the braintrust in Orlando deemed him expendable this summer, they will know how to exploit his shortcomings (as they did when the Magic played the Raptors in Toronto earlier).

The Magic have started to stumble since Nelson's injury (owing to the heavy minutes logged by older veterans like Williams and Johnson), but are capable of shooting lights out and burying a team - and unlike some other contenders, have that Belichick/Brady ethos of no mercy/humiliating your opponent; believe that television commentary recently overhead Van Gundy prod his team into aiming for a 20 + point victory (they were up 25 +, eventually surrendered 8 by the final score). Although Calderon is abysmal, Jarrett Jack isn't a premium upgrade and the Raptors may very well boast the worst coach in the league right now - changes imminent methinks for that moribund franchise.
 
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40seven

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Final plays

Final plays

Pacers -3 1/2

Thunder +2

DP NOH Over 189 1/2

WW/Sac Over 212 1/2 POD

It my last night in Vegas so i am playing alot for action...

Bucks, Nets, Spurs Over BOLTA
 
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