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Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
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Well, the adjusted lines are available now, but selling Indiana to -9.5 offers absolutely zero value. And the total has dropped a point to 47.5.

I was just about to buy Indiana down to 7.5 (-126), but I'll wait to see if I get a boost.

Assuming Bad Carson Beck doesn't suddenly reappear, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Miami keeps it close early. Their D is legit. But I think Indiana will gradually pull away.

One factor to keep in mind... talk about the ultimate distraction this week for the Miami players. Everybody they've ever met is asking for tickets. That's a lot on a college kid trying to get ready for a huge game.

Ok, I just put in 2 bets.

First Half Under (23.5) 4.1 to win 4. As you can see below, my record on Totals in the playoff games is... less than ideal. So take this with a grain of salt (unless you have high blood pressure). But I expect both defenses to dominate early. I thought about buying this up to 24.5, but like getting this at -102.

Indiana to win after trailing 2 to win 3.7. Sure, it's a silly bet. But I bet Buffalo and Houston this weekend with this bet, so I'm getting cocky. If Miami rides the early emotion to grab a lead, I've got Indiana at +185.

Quick note... I've mentioned in both Indiana write-ups about their excellent DL Stephen Daley, who was injured during the Big10 Championship Game. I just found more info. A) He is done for the season. And B) he... wasn't injured DURING the game. He was jumping up to high-five fans after the game and came down wrong on his leg. Obviously his absence hasn't hurt them so far. But, damn, what a way to miss this run for the Hoosiers. Pretty similar to "the Gramatica." But at least that took place on the field.
 

Smitty

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Not much more to add. I've been on both these teams through the playoffs. But I think tonight is clear.

Huge difference in coaching. Can't be overstated. Just one stat... Indiana is 2nd in the country, being penalized 27 yards/game. Only Army is better. Miami is 84th in the country, getting penalized 57 yards/game.

In these championship games, teams' weaknesses are often exposed. Remember, Miami went 6-2 in the ACC. I expect to see that Miami team tonight. Hell, maybe we'll even see "bad" Carson Beck tonight, if Indiana shuts down the run and Beck is forced to throw more than they want to. The Hoosiers have picked off 18 passes in their 15 games.

While Malachi Toney held onto the ball in their last game, I wouldn't be surprised to see Indiana force a fumble or two.

I finally pulled the trigger on...

Indiana (-7.5) 4.6 to win 4
Indiana 160+ rushing yards 4.2 to win 4

I'm thinking about a little Indiana (-16.5 @ + 210). But if this is close for a while, a better line will be available.

GL, everyone. It's been another fun (and profitable) postseason. Woot woot!
 
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boomer1

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Feb 27, 2008
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Not much more to add. I've been on both these teams through the playoffs. But I think tonight is clear.

Huge difference in coaching. Can't be overstated. Just one stat... Indiana is 2nd in the country, being penalized 27 yards/game. Only Army is better. Miami is 84th in the country, getting penalized 57 yards/game.

In these championship games, teams' weaknesses are often exposed. Remember, Miami went 6-2 in the ACC. I expect to see that Miami team tonight. Hell, maybe we'll even see "bad" Carson Beck tonight, if Indiana shuts down the run and Beck is forced to throw more than they want to. The Hoosiers have picked off 18 passes in their 15 games.

While Malachi Toney held onto the ball in their last game, I wouldn't be surprised to see Indiana force a fumble or two.

I finally pulled the trigger on...

Miami (-7.5) 4.6 to win 4
Indiana 160+ rushing yards 4.2 to win 4

I'm thinking about a little Indiana (-16.5 @ + 210). But if this is close for a while, a better line will be available.

GL, everyone. It's been another fun (and profitable) postseason. Woot woot!
Do you mean IU -7.5?
 

Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
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hahahaha whoopsie. i'll fix it. thank you!
too late to change it back?

that run by fletcher just opened up the floodgates.

can't wait to see what cignetti does the next few years, now that he'll be able to get 4* & 5* players. might actually not work out, as the guys he has now definitely played with a chip on their shoulders. feels like he may get better results with guys like that.
 
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