Ncaa 10/25

[bigdad2]

YTD 42-21
LW 6-3

Looking to make between 8-10 picks and make this the last weekend with that high a number of selections. Probably at most 5-6 in the coming weeks leading up to the bowl games. Starting with 5 plays so far:

Miss - Pk - This line will move to probably 1-2.5 by kickoff as I'll fade Arkansas the rest of the way. HUGE game for Manning as he can establish himself in both the Heisman race and with NFL scouts in this match-up. Favorite is 8-2-1 ATS L11. Also, the HT is 6-3-1 ATS L10 in this series

Rutgers +5 - This line came out at 7 and has been dropping ever since. I imagine it will go to 3.5-4 by kickoff with RU being the darling of dog bettors. Those who follow my plays know I've been on the bandwagon since Week 1 and will continue to ride with them until we lose. Some are looking for a SU as well but I really don't see it. We also have Temple 6-14 ATS before a bye s'86 on our side. Hopefully we can get another week out of Rutgers...

South Carolina -16.5 - SC is 7-3 ATS L10 on their Homecoming games. Also, SC is 9-2 ATS L11 vs. Vandy and Vandy is 3-10 ATS on the road before a bye week. I look for Holtz to have his boys ready as they begin a tough 3 week test against Miss, Ark and Fla. SC big in this spot.

TCU -5.5 - In this case I feel as though the numbers don't lie. Houston is 3-11 ATS vs. TCU and the Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS L8 trips to Houston.

Arizona +17.5 - While I can't believe I am on this side I do think this is a strong play. The line opened at 18.5 and has come down a bit. Big value here getting the number over 17 although 12 of L14 have been decided by 7 points or less. Also, Arizona is 21-8-1 ATS L30 after a bye and the Favorite is 1-14 L15 ATS in the series. GO 'CATS!


3N3 YTD 3-7

Two plays this weekend in this trend which has been miserable to this point:


So Miss -3
LA-Monroe +4

Good luck!

 

[bigdad2]

Adding two totals plays:

OSU/A&M ? Under 63 ? These two teams have averaged 33 ppg L4 meetings. I expect a 34-20 game at most as A&M?s speed will keep them close and help with ball control which is a must. Line is 7-8 points too high here in my mind.

Louisville/ECU ? Over 50 ? Louisville has the offense to easily score 38-42 points by themselves as they have averaged 34.5 ppg this year. If we give 16-20 points to ECU we push at 34-16 but I'll expect more fireworks than that. Thinking about also taking Louisville on the side but I?ll need more time to review. Throw in the fact that the two teams have averaged 74.8 ppg L5 meetings and this becomes a solid play.

 

[AR182]

bigdad,

thanks for the props that you posted in my thread.

bigdad quote:"game and the trend of teams playing 3 straight HG is a key angle. Have you looked at it this year in terms of any teams which meet the criteria so far this season? I'd be interested to see how it has played out with an incident rate of less than twice a year on average."

i hope you don't mind me answering you in your thread. i read this at a site that i visit. i don't have time to track these trends, so i peruse the net for info.

i have been thinking of taking miss.& tcu but haven't pulled the trigger. i will do some research on those games.

i wonder if rutgers knows how loyal you are to them(lol).

i'm interested in your other picks.

good luck this weekend & continued success!!

 

[bigdad2]

Adding:

OSU +14/Auburn +10
NT -2.5


AR182 - I'll be loyal to RU as long as they keep winning and covering!!!

Best of luck to us both this weekend!