Ncaa 11/9

[kosar]

Games i've played so far.

1. NC St. + 6' (plenty out there) over Maryland. If it wasn't for the last 8 minutes of the NC St.- G.Tech game, this would be a pick or *maybe* Maryland-1 or so. The teams haven't changed because Rivers got picked at the end or because Tech drove the field for a winning TD. NC St. is the better team, and I look for Jack to owe Loophole a hat before this bad boy is over. Also have the ML at 220.

2. Mississippi + 15' over Georgia. Too many points against a potentially explosive team that has been down the last few weeks. Georgia isn't setting any records on offense lately either. I look for a 31-20 UGA win type of game here, although I wouldn't fall down in shock if UM wins outright.

3. Texas A&M + 10 over Oklahoma. A&M's defense shredded vs Nebraska. Oklahoma rolls over a quality Colorado squad. Thus this inflated line.

4. Tennessee + 9 over Miami. This will make the Vols season and with their relatively strong rushing game and defense, they should be able to keep it close against a Miami team that has struggled to defend the run.

5. Washington +6 over Ore St. Another case of overreaction in the line. Washington is a quality team that has 'gone bad' lately and they shouldn't be laying 6 points at home against an erratic Oregon St. team.

6. Kent St. + 6' over Uconn. Missed the 7 here, which was available widely for a while, but still will bite. IMO, Kent is a better team and this is an overlay.

7. Arz St. -4 over Cal. Although St's offense was basically stymied last saturday, they are vastly improved even over the course of this year, let alone from last year, and I look for them to outshoot Cal in which figures to be a typical Pac 10 free for all.

8. Air Force -17' over Army. Looking for AF to take their recent frustrations out against a horrible Army team. The game is at Army, and it *is* a service rivalry, but I see few reasons to believe that Army will be able to stay with AF.

Good luck!

 

[TCSN]

Alot of them look good.

GL

 

[gardenweasel]

kosar

kosar

glad to see you on nc st also....my language may have been a little strong,but i like the play....also leaning miss,tenn,a+m and washington also....best of luck.

 

[AR182]

Kosar,

Good luck on your plays.

I noticed that you played 3 teams that were 6 or 6.5 dogs. How come you didn't buy the extra 1/2 or 1 point to get the lines to 7 ? Hope you don't think I am criticizing your methods of gambling, because I'm not. I tend to buy those points, am I wrong in doing that? Interested in your feedback or anyone else that has an opinion on this.

 

[Felonious Monk]

kosar,

I'm with you on the AFA game. They should pound Army's ass.

Quick note on that CU/OU game: 4 CU turnovers and a muffed punt return led to CU?s downfall. Under those circumstances, giving up 27 points took many chances away from its offense, which showed it could move the ball on OU. It's just real hard to judge the Aggies state of mind right now, especially since their season is in a tailspin. This game might be RC Slocum?s last stand and you expect the Aggies to be in it. For a while anyway.

I think another big concern about playing the Ags is the epic bulletin board material LB Jarrod Penright sent out to the media: "I'm not going to end my senior year with a losing season,'' said linebacker Jarrod Penright. "We shouldn't lose another game; I don't care who we're playing. Texas is not good enough to beat us. OU is not good enough to beat us."

Of course that could go either way on pumping up a team but the Sooners just might decide to take the Ags to the woodshed on that note.

GL to you.

 

[kosar]

Thanks TCSN and Gardenweasel, good luck to you guys as well.

AR182,

I would never take your comments as being critical. In fact, I wish that there was more discussion along these lines.

Everybody has their own comfort zone, and I totally understand sitting there watching the games and/or watching the scores, and feeling a lot more comfortable having the '7' rather than the '6' or '6 1/2' while computing all the different permutations of how the game could possibly end.

That said, and it's not even close, mathematically it's a losing proposition long-term to buy onto or off of the 7 in college football(even in the pros it's very debatable). Paying double or triple juice to get the seven in college foots off the 6, 6', 7' or 8 just isn't worth it. I mean, it's not going to make or break you, but just another expense that chips away at the BR over time.


Monk,

Good info on the OK-COL game. I gathered a lot of that after reading the boxscore, which as i'm sure you know is a golden way to deduce how the game actually went down. It should be must reading when considering the following weeks games. I didn't know about the muffed punt, which even makes it more extreme.

I also didn't know about that quote from the A&M player. Thanks. Like you said, you could take it either way, but it definitely adds a little flava to the game.

 

[Joe De]

Kosar...Ole Miss has been down these past weeks because they have a number of 1st string walking wounded..2 teams captains were injured in the Fla game and several players have not healed from the Alabama and Arkansas games...the injury list is not fuly being disclosed....Manning should consider bringing a mattress with him..might see as high as 5 sacks...fyi

 

[AR182]

Kosar,

Thanks for responding to my question.

You stated that mathematically it's a losing proposition to buy points. Did someone do a study on this?

 

[kosar]

AR,

Yeah, I guess a study of sorts, but one that anybody can do with a database going back a reasonable number of years (7 or so, I would say) that has closing lines and final scores within it. You can run a simple query with different lines, on and off the number and see how often they land. I do this every couple of years for the type of thing that you're talking about, and more often for other stuff.

I don't have access to it where I am now, so any percentages would be off the top of my head, but there was no number in college football where it paid to buy points or half-points onto or off of. I'll try to dig up the exact results in the next day or two regarding the number '7'.

 

[AR182]

Kosar,

Don't bother if it's a hassle. I'm sure you have better things to do. It's not that important.

BTW, it's funny that you said anyone can do it with a database. The only thing that I can do with my computer is read newspapers from across the country & log onto a few sites. I still use ledger sheets to do the bookkeeping for my business & my wife's business. And as a matter of fact I just recently learned what LOL means.

 

[JCDunkDogs]

I think you have a typo in your picks

I think you have a typo in your picks

Kosar,
Isn't Washington getting 2.5 from Ore St.? Not "laying six." Or did you mean Wassu, who are laying the six at home to the Ducks?

 

[kosar]

Dunk Dogs,

Washington is getting 6 from Ore. St, not 2'. But regardless, you're right that in my post I said laying. Yeah, that was a typo. I meant to say that Washington shouldn't be getting, not laying that many.


AR,

LOL. believe me, I am no computer guy at all and when I said that 'anybody could do it', I meant more that it wasn't really a 'study' in the traditional sense, but more that the data is available to anybody who knows somebody who can show somebody how to manipulate certain data if somebody shows them what they want, and how to sort it. Got it? LOL

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

GL Kosar,

Love your NC ST play

 

[Gatorbait]

What Up:thumb: For all you guys like me too busy to cap and looking at a tuff card as this saturday, these 8 playz should be the ticket. Good luck Kosar and hope to see you in Jan.:Yep:

 

[kosar]

Thanks Timeto, hopefully it comes through for us.

GB, Thanks man, appreciate it. Certainly didn't happen like that last weekend though. lol.

And, ummm, yeah, i'll be seeing you in January. You and Barfly are staying in one of the rooms that I have booked. I heard about your plan to bring some squeeze or fling or something with you. :nono:

I'm glad Fly talked some sense into you. You know better than that! You better believe it will be more fun than last year, if that's possible.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Nice day, congrats

What in hell are you seeing in the Bears tomorrow? :nono: