Ncaa 9/20

[bigdad2]

YTD 12-4
LW 2-2

I'm still in shock over Texas and I will guarantee that no one will see any bets on them until Mack Brown is fired. As for this week I have 5 plays so far:

NCSt. -6.5 - Being at the OSU game and having to watch Rivers work his magic made a believer out of me that he is a great player. Although some may feel the game was horrible loss to come all the way back the Wolfpack should be up for this game as it is their HC game.

LSU -1 - I've felt all season that this is the best team in the SEC and has an outside chance at a BCS bowl. Georgia does have good talent but in Death Valley the spread here should be -3 at least.

Mizzu -21 - Quietly this team has gone 3-0 SU & ATS to start the season. With both Colorado and Nebraska struggling and offensive questions with KSt. this team may sneak up on people. Looking for them to continue the trend this weekend and this also fits our 3N3 play.

BYU -6.5 - Stanford has still not recovered from losing Willingham last year. BYU has two impressive wins against a solid GTech team and winning last week at New Mexico. The Cougars are the play here as I could see them winning by double digits.

BC +18.5/ASU +14 - BC has played Miami well enough to win the last few years and no one is really talking about this game. Coming off games where they beat a very good UConn team and won at Penn St. getting the extra points here is key. I like BC in another close game. ASU might be my pick of the week getting 14 in this spot and I'll probably do a little on the ML for them to win. Iowa will have trouble stopping the offense and if it turns into a shootout that favors ASU.


3N3 YTD 0-3

I have to admit that I am stunned to see this trend go winless in the first week. This is something I have tracked back for a few years and as I stated last week has hit for over 62% in the past. Three teams again fit within the angle this week:

Fresno St -10, Colorado St -6.5, Mizzu -21



Good Luck!

 

[Spreader]

Good looking plays there! What is the formula for your 3n3 angle? Just curious. Hope you know BYU qb is out and Stanford is 12-3 ATS (80%) as an underdog of 8 points or less per some touts trends. Haven't checked the history on it yet but you may want to. GL!

 

[bigdad2]

Spreader - Two years ago a few posters brought up the topic of playing against a team on the last game during 3 consecutive road games. I've watched this trend hit for over 62% the last 3 years although starting 0-3 this year was a shock to the system. A few other posters currently use this system but it is something that I keep tabs on under my weekly plays. To be honest I've found another wrinkle to this trend which I'll probably share after this weekend's games after I see how things play out and I do some more homework.

One of my close friends is a Stanford alum and did quote your stat about the Cardinal as a dog less than 8... BUT he also thinks that BYU's QB depth is much better than the rotation going on at Stanford. Here are some tidbits I've read:

-Beck is a true freshman, but graduated HS is 2000. He went on a 2 yr. mission. He played in two games so far this year, going 1 for 6 for 12 yds with 1 int. Mortensen mopped up last week because Beck was unavailable. He left the USC game with a concussion.
Marcus Whalen returns at TB, but may be hampered with a sore foot.
Starting Center Scott Jackson is "possible".

-For Stanford, redshirt FR Trent Edwards gets the start at QB. He replaced an ineffective Chris Lewis early in the game vs SJSU. He appears to have won the starting job outright now.
The Cardinal starts only one player on offense who was a regular starter last year. The unit did well in the first game, albeit against one of the worst defensive teams in Div. IA. We really don't know what to expect from this group. A particular concern is the offensive line where they return only a couple of players with any game experience. In fact, 3 starting O-Linemen played their first college down vs SDSU. They have great speed at WR, but little experience. They better be able to pass block, though.
On defense, the Cardinal return virtually all of their best players from last year, and look to improve significantly. their particular liability last year was against the pass, which shouldn't hurt them much in this game, but that's probably a result of playing in the Pac 10, where nobody could run the ball anyway, except Oregon St. and USC.

-Stanford trailed sj state at halftime..dominated the second half to win.. they are extremely young with little veteran talent. the OL is very young and sj state doesnt count as a good tune-up for byu's defense.. I expect byu to dominate this stanford team in every area(coaching included) This is a case of a big school losing too much talent in a short period of time..with trick plays they might stay close in the first half but at the end..I expect they will lose by 10-14pts ..Remember..1st road game for these freshman, 1st hostile environment, 1st superior opponent. Only won two games last year..sj state and arizona..so the new coach hasnt learned to win yet either especially on the road.

Hope this helps!

GL!

 

[bigdad2]

TXA&M/VT Under 43.5 - it's dropping fast so get it if you can. 35-40 mph winds projected in Blacksburg tonight.

 

[AR182]

bigdad2,

very nice writeups.

am with you on the under tonite.

also like bc & asu & am leaning to byu.

i like the other side in the ncstate game, but may not bet it because of weather concerns. it may hamper tex. tech passing game. but with ncstate coming off an emotional loss in 3ot's. & then playing hated rival alabama next week, i can't see ncstate getting into this game.

anyway good luck this weekend & continued success.

 

[bigdad2]

AR182 - I'm glad you enjoyed my write-ups and also that we are together on the Under tonight! Total in A&M/VT is 41.5-42 at most books as of a few minutes ago. Hoping for some sloppy play and lots of fumbles. High winds mean that both teams will probably go on 4th and short rather than attempt FG's longer than 35 yards. Also, VT's defense is in my opinion one of the most overlooked in the country.

As for the NCSt. game, I think you meant to say they are playing UNC, right? I agree that emotionally NCSt. is spent after the OSU game, and so I am after being there in person last Saturday, but few people have pointed out this is their HC game. I believe this team will be 8-2 on Nov. 15th for their meeting with FSU. A healthy McLendon completely changes the offense and a win in Tallahassee could seal a BCS game if they get on a roll.

Again, I appreciate your reply and have always enjoyed reading your posts or picks. Best of luck to you this season!

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

great start, keep it up.

 

[AR182]

bigdad2,

i got arkansas confused with ncstate, sorry about that.

good luck

 

[bigdad2]

0-1 TW

Even though I took the loss in the A&M/VT game it was nice to see the Tech defense dominate the 2nd half. I'm trying to find the exact stat but I think that they gave up between 50-60 yards total offense after halftime. That kind of effort was what I expected more in the 1st half. This is definitely not the '99 team with Corey Moore but still could be a top-20 defense. Another thing to watch is the A&M QB Reggie McNeil, who is only in his 2nd year. This kid has a nice arm and is extreamely fast. Someone to watch in the next two years if A&M can get a defense around him.

 

[rob18s]

bigdad2,

I see that the majority of your picks are favorites. Is there a reason for this or is this just a coincidence. Keep up the good work.

 

[bigdad2]

rob18s - Looking back at my picks during the first two weeks my picks were actually a 60/40% split taking dogs vs. favorites. Early on I've always found the books to overvalue some favorites as there is no real point of reference. This week there are a few dogs which I like but nothing I love. No real reason for that other than nothing has jumped out at me. I might post a few more picks before tomorrow morning but I usually like to keep the plays to 5-8 at a maximum. Also, I'll probably close shop after October, take my winnings and wait for the Bowl games.

Good luck this weekend!

 

[rob18s]

Thanks for the reply and all of your hard work. There are so many games to cap I can never get to all of them.

 

[bigdad2]

Adding two plays:

CMU +5.5 - I agree with Hellah10 that the line is off here as it should be +3 at most. Both teams will be able to move the ball but the depth for CMU at RB will help keep them pounding Ball State on the ground. With Ball State's QB out I give the edge offensively to CMU, the kicking game favors CMU and the defenses are a wash. Solid dog in my book

Northwestern +3.5 - How Duke is a favorite is beyond me. Three times since 2001 Duke has been a favorite...all three times they have failed to cover including last week where they were giving 13 to Rice and won by 3. This game should be a Pk. a best so I'll take the FG in this spot.

 

[bigdad2]

Mizzu -12 1st H