Ncaa 9/4

[bigdad2]

LW 7-4
YTD 25-12

No more than 7 plays posted a week which will not include the 3N3 plays as we have 3 games which fit that trend this weekend. I'm jumping on a few things early to hold the value in each game:

Boise St -6.5 - I had the line at 8 and want to hold the value of it being under a TD. Offensively the Broncos are a different team in the road versus at home but LA Tech hasn't changed much from the team that got waxed 36-10 LY. Yes, this is the LATech team that beat Michigan State but that was without Smoker which totally changes the complexion of that team. Just ask Iowa...

Rutgers +27 - Somewhere here in NJ a oddsmaker is probably falling over in his chair when this game is called in as on paper this is a huge mismatch. But maybe not, RU held with VT last year 35-14 @VT and I would not be surprised if the score was almost identical to that again this year. Beamer is notorious for pulling starters to keep them healthy and if he builds a 28-0 lead they could be out by the 2Q, especially with this team's talent. I'm banking on that to happen and RU to make things interesting in the 2H. Besides, I said that I would ride this bandwagon until they kick me to the curb...

NCSt. -6.5
&
NCSt. ML w/NCSt. to win ACC (10:1) - this has been a team which I've said all year I thought was the best in the ACC and at this value I have to jump all over this line. Looking ahead on the schedule NCSt. has: Clemson, @Duke, UVA, @FSU and Md. I believe NCSt. will win all these games and go into FSU with a chance to win the ACC. If FSU slips in its remaining ACC games (@UVA which might be a letdown game after the Miami game, Wake, @Clemson) then NCSt. can win outright with a win. I expect both teams to remain undefeated and have a classic showdown.

More to come later in the week.



3N3 YTD 1-4

Terrible start to this trend but hopefully we can right the ship this weekend with 3 plays. The games are: Midd. Tenn St. -3.5 (get this now), NMSt. -11 and Okla. St. -36 (I think this will drop to 34)

Good luck to all!

 

[AR182]

bigdad,

i want to compliment you on your great record.

you may want to change the title of your thread to 10/4, instead of 9/4.

the boise line has been jumping all over the place. since i don't like touching these type of games, i played boise-6.5 & lou. tech+10. i did this last week in the akron game with a spread of 13-17. the game ended with akron winning by 17.

i also like rutgers, but am curious as to why you didn't buy the line to 28 ?

i like gt vs. ncst. don't like to lay points on the road with a bad defense.

good luck & continued success.

 

[bigdad2]

AR182 - Thanks for the compliment but as you well know it takes a lot of number crunching, research and a little luck to do so well.

Thanks for the heads-up with the thread post but I have no idea how to change it. :shrug:

I'm be rooting for a nice middle of 8 for you to win both of your bets and would imagine it could happen in a backdoor cover. Boise should be up big and a late TD might make it interesting for LA Tech.

The Rutgers game is by far in my mind the strongest so far for this week. If you saw the WV/UM game last night it showed perfectly how teams especially in college can look ahead and get killed. Beamer is a great coach but known for this happening. I was at the Miami(Oh) game vs. VT when Miami upset them and VT were to play a ranked BC team the following week. I remember betting heavily on WV in '99 when VT came in as a 17-20 favorite and escaped with a last second FG. This falls right into the trap of it happening again as VT has Syr at home next week. Perhaps I am giving too much credit to an untested RU team but we shall see...


The NCSt./GT game will be a good game but again I jumped on the line early to get the value of having 6.5 vs. 7 for the favorite. I afgree that NCSt.'s defense leaves much to be desired but they will overpower GT's defense and a shoot-out favors NCSt. Again, I am probably giving too much credit to NCSt. but I believe they will make a solid run and be 9-2 when they face Miami.

Best of luck to you this weekend and I'll have 4 more plays by noon tomorrow.

 

[bigdad2]

Adding:

Cincy -7.5
CMU +29.5

Write-ups and my last two picks to follow.

 

[ajoytoy]

the best of luck to you bigdad!


toy

 

[rob18s]

Bigdad2,

Great job this year. Your picks have definitely made me some money. Your post states that you went 7-4 last week but last weeks thread only had nine picks. What were your other two picks? Good luck this week.

 

[bigdad2]

rob18s - posted two other plays in other people's threads as mine was buried and wanted to get them in. My fault for not getting them in earlier which is why I'm going to limit the plays and try to get them posted in sections. By this Tuesday I plan to have half of my picks posted as I've been waiting for this weekend all year. Things might change depending on the outcome of today's games but we'll see...


ajoytoy - best of luck to us all!

Adding: Purdue -13.5 - Purdue is 5-0 ATS as a DD HF L5. I also think that this defense may give up at most 13 points and should be able to score between 28-31. Also, Purdue is 5-1 ATS in their conference opener and when you factor in this is their HC game I believe this is a solid play.


Oregon St. -Pk. -This team is a missed field goal away from being undefeated and in the top-10 with all the big upsets. Cal registered a nice upset win LW but I don't think they will be able to build on that this weekend. Some may think I'm crazy but I believe OSU THIS YEAR is a much better passing offense than USC. Anderson is a good QB who has yet to play a solid game this year. Even LW he threw 3 picks and has 10 on the year. I expect a breakout game and the OSU defense should give the offense good field position all day. If Cal loses last weekend OSU is giving 5-6 in this spot. I'll take the more talented team here.