NCAA Bowl AntiConsensus

[BobbyBlueChip]

Season Record 44-52 -10.7 units
Favorites 31-36 ?5.5 units
Dogs12-15 -5.1 units
Totals 1-1 -0.1 units

It's that time of the year again when I have to forget EVERYTHING that I learned throughout the season and go straight anti-consensus. There was no clear consensus on the New Orleans Bowl , but for tonight.

Away/ Picks /Pct/ Line/ Home /Picks /Pct
Louisville 10 33.33% +13.5 Miami-ohio 20 66.67%
Miami-ohio 372 66.55% -13 Louisville 187 33.45%

Taking Louisville +14 2 units

 

[Cie]

I couldn't agree with you more.

GL:weed:

 

[IntenseOperator]

I'm actually going to throw some change on the ML here

GL

 

[THE KOD]

KOD

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Keepin' the faith

Away Picks Pct Line Home Picks Pct
Kansas 104 40.15% +11.5 No Carolina St 155 59.85%
No Carolina St 355 58.01% -11.5 Kansas 257 41.99%

Kansas +11.5

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Bowl Season's been a blast
Bowl Record 0-2 -3.3 units

Away Picks Pct Line Home Picks Pct
Boise St 397 62.32% -10 Tcu 240 37.68%

TCU +10 2 units

 

[baltimore buc]

I am with you - dogs have to start covering at some point and "joe public" has to start losing at some point. :shrug:

TCU+11

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Yaaaayyy!!!!! Nice job, Buc

Rot Away Picks Pct Line Home Picks Pct
373 New Mexico 9 40.91% +3 Oregon St 13 59.09% Detail
373 Oregon St 453 64.07% -1.5 New Mexico 254 35.93% Detail

New Mexico +1.5

 

[cooz3]

BOBBY..

dont want to clog your thread up to much ...bit what % makes the play "anti-consensus"...and how many consensus sites do you check

not being critical just a couple of questions...

happy holidays to you and yours ..

and good luck tonight

cooz

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Just check one site. I used to have the parameters at over 60%, but anything in the 57% range will mean a play for me. It's not a science and I don't retain records to back how successful it's been, but I have done this on this site for a couple of years so it may be in the archives. I only do this religiously for the bowl season and the march tourney.

I won't cap a thing on any game before new year's as it doesn't work for me.

Best of Luck!

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Mele Kalikimaka is the thing to say to all the madjackers today

Away Picks Pct Line Home Picks Pct
Houston 218 33.44% +10.5 Hawaii 434 66.56%

Houston +10.5 2 units

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Away Picks Pct Line Home Picks Pct
California 83 32.94% +3 Virginia Tech 169 67.06%
Virginia Tech 498 65.70% -3 California 260 34.30%
Bowling Green 529 70.72% -7.5 Northwestern 219 29.28%

Play on

N'Western +7 2 units
Cal +3 1 unit

 

[vanbasten]

bbc...

bbc...

interesting thing about the bowling green game, your consensus #'s (as do everything i check)shows 70+% on bowling green, but the line has gone down, from bg -8 to bg -6.5. what does that tell us

good luck with your plays.


have to ask, who has the "dubious" rights to your signature?...

12-27-1 is better than 1-3

everytime i see it, i chuckle

 

[gardenweasel]

bbc...something interesting on bg/nw

bbc...something interesting on bg/nw

i pulled this post from another forum....a guy called "big earnie"....(giving him his credit)...this is what he said...

posted December 26, 2003 11:05 AM
"I don't have many friends in this world...yes I know, how sad am I.

However, the few friends that I do have are coaching in today's BG/NU game.

Gregg Brandon (BG Head Coach) used to coach at NU under Gary Barnett and Brando was the O-Coord at BG under Urban Meyer a couple of years ago when the Falcons stunned the Wildcat nation in Evanston.

Today is payback time fella's. I've been in contact with several coaches on both sides and I have to tell ya, this NU team will be ready to rock n roll today.

I was told in not so many words that I should take the points and run to the bank because the 'CATS are about to unload an ass whoopin' on BG in the Motor City this afternoon.

I'm takin Northwestern +7 and the waaaaaayyyyyyyyyy over 56"....................
.......................................................................................................
i know you are up in the general vicinity of wildcat country.....any comment on this?....

i do know that nw has around the #17 strength of schedule vs b.g.`s #90 something....

i took over 54....the side has me baffled....

whattaya think about this post?


thanks.

 

[The Big Tease]

LOL! Yea is this the same Cats team that is so good that they can play when they want to???

The same team that has only beaten a Kansas team that plays defense like a high school team? A Duke team that has been horrible in football for the better part of a couple decades? Or is this the same team that beat Indiana in Overtime? Or won a hard fought game with the great Nittany Lions, or the one that beat Illinois, one of the worst teams in Division 1?

LOL! This line has me baffled too, but only because Northwestern is the "King of the Big 10 doormats" I knew that a shitty team would make it from the Big 10, only because you get guaranteed wons over Illinois and Indiana and probably over Penn State too.

This team hasnt proven anything to me....and the Falcons should want this one. I would assume that Harris would want to use this game to showcase that he might be able to make it as someone in the NFL.

 

[gardenweasel]

i hear you b.t...

i hear you b.t...

i know you`re up there in big 10 country....not my area of expertise.....

appreciate your take...does the n.w. running game worry you at all?....vs this level of competition,they have shown an ability to grind it out......

b.g. didn`t exactly pound many of the middle rung mac clubs....several 10-12 point wins...and these teams seemed to be able to put points up on that b.g. defense...

i think the side is a bit of a toss-up considering the points....the side has me baffled..

solid arguments all around..

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

The line move on N'Western is, as you say, interesting.

Same thing happened in the Oregon State game, though, and that turned out to be quite painful. The Wildcats should be able to run w/ ease and I actually like this play which isn't always a good thing this time of year.

As for my sig line, S-Love had a sig line that used to state that "6-3 is better than 2-1." He always likes to call people out when their plays lose, but never liked to actually post plays on his own and so the only time he ever posted plays was in the college contest. After a free fall out of the gates, he started going for last place and the results were predictable. He wanted his plays to lose, so they actually started winning. 12-32-1 was the the last "real" record that he had until it became too hard to figure out if he was going for last place still or for first place. Now I just leave it there as a reminder to him that he has one of the longest documented records of incompetence in the history of gambling message boards, just in case he gets lippy.

Good Luck Today!!!

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

The MAC does well against the Big 10 in the regular season mostly due to different motivational factors. If NW is up for this game, (and with a 6-6 record, why wouldn't they be?) they should have alot of success in the trenches and no matter what Harris can do.

 

[The Big Tease]

Garden:

You know this is really terrible to say.....but I am a contrarian, but these bowl games have me extremely pissed. I look like an idiot....I have taken Kansas, New Mexico, and Louisville, all of which my FOOTBALL MIND knows they are the inferior team, but my gambling mind gets in the way and I look dumb.

I told myself that I aint gonna do it anymore.

Bowling Green and Northwestern have played 3 games against the same opponant and all 3 BG has fared better. There is no question in my mind that BG is the better team here. Vegas isnt gonna screw me anymore. At least I can say that if I lose.....I had the better team and they just played a bad game.

The feeling that I had after that Kansas/NC State game is one that I dont want to deal with anymore. Losing money when I know for a fact that NC State is the FAR better team.

No more for me!

My plays today are Bowling Green and I am taking California.

And you might be saying that Virginia Tech is the far better team....and they are, but I think this is a different situation because VA Tech seems to have given up on the season. I cant justify betting and giving points on a team that almost lost at Temple, lost to BC, VA and Pitt to close out the season.

Good Luck today!

 

[The Big Tease]

Here are some other stats....

Northwestern is a horrible passing team.....they average 171 yards per game against a schedule of teams that allow an average of 202.5, so well below average. They are a running team mainly, but only seem to run up lots of running yards against horrible running defenses. (Kansas, Duke, Indiana, and Illinois) BG is a little above average on run defense, but while Wright will get his yards, I do not look for him to carry the team on his back.