ncaa division II championship play: north dakota vs. grand valley state........

[gman2]

1 unit.....#4 grand valley state (-15.5) over #7 north dakota
(line from 5dimes )
*this one features the winners of the last two d-II title games.
*rematch of the 2001 title game (won by north dakota 17-14)
*grand valley is the defending divison II champion (winning last year 31-24 over valdosta state)

*this year, theres a lot of areas where gvsu outclasses north dakota. ostensibly, the line may look high, but i honestly think theres a 20-pt difference between the two teams.

offense:
north dakota runs the ball adequately (140 ypg) but grand valley can dominate you on the ground if they get it going. lakers average right around 223 ypg on the ground and hb michael tennessee --who is averaging almost 5 yards per carry --is a stud.. hes also their leading receiver. very versatile. these teams have almost identical passing numbers, from yards/completions/touchdowns. very similar. grand valley's cullen finnerty is a transfer from the university of toledo (hellah, any clue why this kid transferred? logjam?) and has performed amazingly well as a freshman. very sharp with the ball.

defense:
this is where the game will be won/lost. gvsu has a dominant defense to go along with a potent offense.
rushing the ball effectively on grand valley just doesnt happen:
round 1 vs. #19 bentley......bentley 25 carries/14 net yds
round 2 vs. #1 saginaw.......saginaw 33 carries/46 net yds
round 3 vs. #3 tamu-k ........kingsville 27 carries/46 net yds

north dakota will likely be a one-dimensional team on saturday, and will have to throw extensively if they want to move the ball.
grand valley gets after the quarterback very well.
heres an eye-popping number. keep in mind 2 of gvsu's 3 games in the playoffs have been against the #1 and #3 team in the nation:

grand valley's defensive sacks this postseason: 16
grand valley's off-line allowing opponent sacks: 1

kicking game:
dakota.......16/27 fgs
grand valley......24/30

bottom line:
grand valley looks primed to not only repeat, but avenge their loss to north dakota from 2 yrs earlier.

grand valley is dominating teams right now.
their last 6 opponents have had no chance:
(reg.season) mercyhurst..........51-6
(reg.season) at indianapolis.........53-10
(reg.season) at findlay.................44-0
(playoffs) at #19 bentley.............65-36
(playoffs) at #1 saginaw.............10-3
(playoffs) at #3 tex a+m king......31-3

and what makes it more impressive:
all those playoff wins have been on the road. the only team grand valley has lost to this year was #1 saginaw. they not only got revenge, but did it on the road vs. the #1 team in the nation.

north dakota not nearly as impressive in their L6, and they got their playoff games at HOME:
(reg.season) at msu-mankato....41-25
(reg.season) neb-omaha...........38-35
(reg.season) at south dakota....37-3
(playoffs) home to #13 pitt st.....24-14
(plaoyyfs) home to #9 winona.....36-29
(playoffs) home to #2 n.bama....29-22

i normally abhor chalk, but i honestly feel like -15.5 is more than fair to lay with grand valley in this one. their program is as solid as they come in division II and their defense this postseason on the road has been phenomenal. the only team gvsu lost to all year was the #1 team in the nation, and they got their revenge on saginaw's own field 2 weeks ago. to hold the #1 and #3 teams to a field goal apiece is outstanding. really feel like gvsu lays it on north dakota in a big way saturday.

 

[NYCDUDE]

Pathetic!

 

[The Big Tease]

Dammit g-man.....I like you and all, but you got to get a woman, LOL:tongue

 

[The Big Tease]

Start with this after a long day at the office.......



dammit

 

[gman2]

tease:

my girl's dad actually went to a rival school in this GLIAC -- which explains some of my interest. have followed regional D-II football for quite some time. as you know, ashland is the only D-II school in ohio. michigan is littered with em.

 

[Mr Hockey]

I salute you gman. It is cappers like you that earn my respect & know what they're doing. You are picking on a game that most couldn't even tell you was happening much less know anything about them. These are the spots where the real money is made. I am still looking at the game personally.

 

[Spalding]

GMAN--I just saw you thread right now--first of all where do you get to bet on that game? I couldn't find anything

Second of all why the hell was Grand Valley favored by -15.5?? If you look where I am from you would see what side I was on for this game ( I went to UND). Damn, I could've got on here and voiced a opinion to help out about the ND side of the game.

There was no way in hell they were gonna win by 15.5. ND's defense was red hot and they are perenially the best in the NCC. The last time they played in the championship it was 17-14 down to the wire and this time I picked 13-10 and they didn't even score that much!!!

GVSU's defense is damn good though, huh! Was there a O/U?

Anyway, this was a neat thread to see and I am sorry I missed it.

Later

 

[gman2]

spalding:

hindsight always 20/20. (although i certainly would have welcomed a 2nd opinion, was dead set on betting gvsu there)

no regrets, even with the 10-3 outcome.

grand valley's defense is freaking amazing.

grand valley allowed NINE points TOTAL the last three weeks.

if you woulda told me that dakota would score just 3 points on saturday, id have felt real good about my chances.

i gotta give credit to und's defense. they were letting up a ton of points lately and really buckled down and played great.

i didnt see any total on the game. tough enough finding the line, lol