Ncaa Early Look

[Master Capper]

09/30 4 HOUSTON U 301
04:30p EAST CAROLINA 302

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Thursday, October 2nd

Time
Open
Gm. #
Heritage
Sportbet ABC
Island
Olympic

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10/02 WEST VIRGINIA 303
04:30p 26 MIAMI FLORIDA 304

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Friday, October 3rd

Time
Open
Gm. #
Heritage
Sportbet ABC
Island
Olympic

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10/03 1? OREGON 305
07:00p UTAH 306

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Saturday, October 4th

Time
Open
Gm. #
Heritage
Sportbet ABC
Island
Olympic

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10/04 28 VIRGINIA TECH 307
09:00a RUTGERS 308

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10/04 CLEMSON 309
09:00a 8? MARYLAND 310

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10/04 1? WISCONSIN 311
09:00a PENN STATE 312

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10/04 INDIANA 313
09:00a 14? MICHIGAN STATE 314

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10/04 8? MINNESOTA U 315
09:00a NORTHWESTERN 316

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10/04 8? VIRGINIA 317
09:00a NORTH CAROLINA 318

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10/04 TENNESSEE U 319
09:30a 2 AUBURN 320

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10/04 16? AIR FORCE 321
10:30a NAVY 322

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10/04 15 WESTERN MICHIGAN 323
11:00a EASTERN MICHIGAN 324

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10/04 BALL STATE 325
11:00a 3 KENT 326

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10/04 AKRON 327
11:00a 21 MIAMI OHIO 328

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10/04 UAB 329
11:00a 11 MEMPHIS 330

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10/04 VANDERBILT 331
11:30a 6? MISSISSIPPI ST 332

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10/04 8 BOISE STATE 333
12:00p LOUISIANA TECH 334

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10/04 COLORADO 335
12:00p BAYLOR 336

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10/04 FRESNO STATE 337
12:00p 8 COLORADO STATE 338

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10/04 3 MICHIGAN 339
12:30p IOWA 340

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10/04 ALABAMA 341
12:30p 10? GEORGIA 342

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10/04 7 NC STATE 343
12:30p GEORGIA TECH 344

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10/04 MISSISSIPPI 345
12:30p 13? FLORIDA 346

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10/04 KANSAS STATE 347
12:30p 6 TEXAS 348

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10/04 1 WASHINGTON U 349
12:30p UCLA 350

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10/04 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 351
01:00p 27 BOWLING GREEN 352

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10/04 ILLINOIS 353
01:30p 14 PURDUE 354

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10/04 ARIZONA U 355
02:00p 30 WASHINGTON STATE 356

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10/04 OREGON STATE 357
02:00p 2 CALIFORNIA 358

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10/04 BUFFALO U 359
03:00p CENTRAL FLORIDA 360

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10/04 SO MISSISSIPPI 361
04:00p 7 CINCINNATI U 362

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10/04 21 OKLAHOMA 363
04:00p IOWA STATE 364

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10/04 LOUISVILLE 365
04:00p SOUTH FLORIDA 366

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10/04 HAWAII 367
04:00p TULSA 368

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10/04 ARMY 369
04:00p TCU 370

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10/04 TEXAS A&&M 371
04:00p TEXAS TECH 372

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10/04 OHIO 373
04:30p 22 NO ILLINOIS 374

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10/04 SAN JOSE STATE 375
05:00p 3 RICE 376

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10/04 UTEP 377
05:00p 9? SMU 378

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10/04 1? BYU 379
06:00p SAN DIEGO STATE 380

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10/04 10? USC 381
07:00p ARIZONA STATE 382

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10/04 3 UNLV 383
07:00p NEVADA 384

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ADDED GAMES


Time
Open
Gm. #
Heritage
Sportbet ABC
Island
Olympic

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10/04 TROY STATE 385
09:30a 27? NEBRASKA 386

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10/04 UL LAFAYETTE 387
09:30a 37 OKLAHOMA STATE 388

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10/04 TEMPLE 389
04:00p 4? MIDDLE TENN ST 390

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10/04 UL MONROE 391
04:00p 8 ARKANSAS STATE 392

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10/04 UTAH STATE 393
05:00p 14 NEW MEXICO 394

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10/04 IDAHO 395
05:00p 11 NEW MEXICO STATE 396

 

[Master Capper]

Input appreciated!!


Early teams I am looking at!

Hous
WVU
Oreg
Maryland
NW
AUb
Navy
Western Mich
Kent
Akron
Mich
Kansas STate
Wash
Cal
Cinc
UNLV
Temple

 

[ajoytoy]

gl MC!!


toy

 

[djchad]

The Ole Miss - Florida line is odd. 13 points may be too much here. It's a 12:30 PM kickoff in the Swamp. Last time we had that, UT won.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

gl this week...i'm on houston....

 

[Master Capper]

Djchad, have to agree with you on FLA, but will they be making a permanant qb change this weekend? Ole Miss has one of the worst pass defenses in the nation but no doubt this game could turn into a shootout.


Toronto,

Houston has played well pretty much all of this year even though they installed a new offense. On the other hand, ECU has not been in a game all year. If I play this I would have to go Houston or pass.

 

[bamabuck44]

Master Capper, early I know, but take a peak at Troy St. +27' at Huskers, had them +12 vs Marshall, think that's too many pt.s, but will watch line this week. good luck, Buck

 

[wox11]

HOW ABOUT THE TAR HEELS AT HOME +7-:shrug: MAY EVEN PLAY THEM ON THE $ LINE


ALSO CANT WAIT TO HEAR EVERYONES TAKE ON TENN. GAME. TENN. +2 SEEMS TO GOOD TO BE TRUE

 

[Master Capper]

West Virginia at MIAMI-FLORIDA (Thursday night)...Miami has struggled to cover big spreads in game preceding Florida State showdown lately, going 1-3 vs. number past 4 chances. WV has covered 3 of past 4 at Miami, and speedy Canes just 1-6 vs. spread last 7 in Orange Bowl!

Oregon State at CALIFORNIA...Cal thrilled to be host after facing OSU in Corvallis 4 of past 5 years. Beavers failed to cover 6? -pt. spread in 38-32 win on this field in ?00.

Southern Miss at CINCINNATI...Cincy has covered 5 of last 6 (all as dog) in this tightly-contested series?last 6 decided by total of just 34 pts. (widest margin 8). 'Cat QB Guidugli (only 12-27 for 143 yds., 0 TDP) looking to make amends for subpar effort despite strong support from ground attack (263 YR) in 23-14 loss at USM LY.

Mississippi at FLORIDA...UF (13?-point chalk) in serious payback mode following 17-14 upset loss at Ole Miss LY. Gators outgained Rebels 300-191, but couldn?t overcome 4 costly ints. (one returned for TD) thrown by QB Grossman. Rebels knocked off their 1st Top Ten foe since ?97 in 3-point shocker, and Ole Miss has covered 8 straight as DD dog.

North Carolina State at GEORGIA TECH...NCS still seething from shocking 24-17 home loss to GT in ?02 (only setback in Raleigh LY). Wolfpack led 17-9 in 4th Q before giving up 2 TDs. State?s dynamic RB McLendon looking for redemption after being held to season-low 49 yds. in 17 carries in 7-point setback.

Oklahoma at IOWA STATE...OU led 35-0 at halftime before emptying bench in 2nd H of 49-3 crushing vs. ISU LY. Cyclones didn?t register their initial FD until 7 mins. were left in 2nd Q.

Clemson at MARYLAND...Maryland has recently turned tables in series, covering past 3 after going 0-6-1 vs. spread previous 7 meetings. Terps totally controlled the pits in LY?s 30-12 victory in ?Death Valley,? outrushing Clemson 285-81.

Akron at MIAMI-OHIO...M-O easily overcame early 14-0 deficit in eventual 48-31 victory in ?Rubber Bowl? LY despite terrific performance from Zip QB Frye (348 YP), who outdueled more-publicized RedHawk QB Roethlisberger (240 YP).

Vanderbilt at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Hard times continue for both Jackie Sherrill (on 9-game losing streak) & MSU ?investors? lately, as Bulldogs just 3-12 vs. spread last 1+Ys.

Unlv at NEVADA...In MAJOR ?hate game? between bitter rivals, Nevada jazzed-up to end 3- game series losing streak. Wolf Pack?which had captured previous 5 in series?is 10-5-1 vs. spread last 16 on board.

Wisconsin at PENN STATE...Wiscy?s star RB A. Davis (check status) highly-aroused for rematch after being limited to season-low 47 YR in 34-31 home loss vs. Penn State LY.

Virginia Tech at RUTGERS...Before LY?s comfy but non-covering 35-14 win vs. Rutgers, VT had beaten spread in previous 5 blowouts vs. Scarlet Knights (avg. 43-pt. winning margin).

Kansas State at TEXAS...KSU eager to avenge painful 17-14 home loss vs. UT LY, which was Wildcats only setback in Manhattan in ?02. K-State outgained Longhorns 261-230, but had game-tying 36-yd. FG attempt blocked on final play.

Washington at UCLA...New regimes at both schools. But note, UCLA is 5-0-1 vs. spread last 6 in series (5-1 SU). Bonus Angles!!!!

Virginia at NORTH CAROLINA...UVA has held upper hand in series lately, covering 5 straight (4-1 SU). UNC is 0-9 vs. spread last 9 in Chapel Hill.

Hawaii at TULSA...Despite travel distance for these WAC squads, visitor has covered 4 straight.

 

[Joe De]

Here are the games open to play with value.

Houston-1'...if it were a Saturdy game it would be a best bet
Tenn+2...this game qualfies for a don't laugh pick
Air Force-16...should be at -21
Ball St+1'...gets close to a laugh pick
Vanderbilt+6....needless to say why ...Miss St. just sucks
Louisana Tech+7...a sleeper and win s/u..just watch
Fresno St+6'.....Kansas St+6...i just played that game tonite
Washington-1' good value on paper but a little scarey
Tulsa+12'...just played this game tonite ..Hawaii litter with injury..they win s/u
UTEP+12..i show even matchup and getting points..this team ate my cake last year..BEWARE,,
Troy State+28..i'll give more insight later after i check out a couple of items..got a hunch on this game
Ark State+8'..willl give more insight latter
New Mex-14 ..got value
Oklahome State-36..don't let that number scare you away..they can do it..............

 

[Joe De]

dijchd...............comment on Ole Miss...can't play that team on the road..remmember Memphis beat this team like a drum..Ole miss needs aleast 21 point or more for me to play ..i like Florida to put a hurting on them..gl

 

[Master Capper]

1st play of the week:

1 unit play on Houston Cougars-1
line has dropped nearly three points creating decent value on the Cougars. Briles has installed a new direction that is looking promising, he is the first coach in school history that has actually played for the Cougars. ECU is really hyping this game in the Greenville community, pulling out all stops to get a large crowd for the game, they are even going to have drawing for all students that attend the game for free tution. ECU has absolutely no passing game, but their defense is not bad and I see them keeping this game close with the Cougars prevailing 20-17.


Good Luck Cappers!!!!!!!

 

[Master Capper]

News and notes, Part II
Sept. 29, 2003
By Phil Steele

FRONTDOOR COVERS - Memphis may be headed to a bowl this year as they survived a game in which Coach West said, "We looked like we had an open date and forgot we were playing this week." Arkansas St jumped out to a 10-0 lead before Memphis even had a FD and led ASU 10-3 at the half. It was a tight game after 3Q's at 17-16 with UM leading by 1. They got 81 and 54 yd drives for TD's but led just 31-16 when ASU faked a punt from their own 10 yd line and the pass fell incomplete. That allowed UM a 10 yd, 3 play drive for a TD to get the frontdoor cover, 38-16 as a 16 point favorite...


N Illinois was ranked in the Top 25 for the first time ever and were fortunate to cover vs Iowa St. In the 1H ISU had a 14-6 FD edge but trailed 14-10. The key play in the 1H came when ISU was at the NI 16 with a 7-0 lead but was int'd and returned 65 yds setting up an NI TD. During the game ISU settled for FG's of 23, 44 and 27 yds. They led 16-14 with 11:53 left but NI drove for a 29 yd FG with 7:45 left. NI then got an int and drove 49 yds for a TD with 1:55 left for the frontdoor cover...

It was not a frontdoor cover for Air Force but worth noting in this category. It appears AF whipped BYU 24-10 but in reality the game was 10-10 mid-4Q. AF got a TD and BYU was driving for a TD but fmbl'd at the AF 35 yd line. After an AF punt, BYU's 4th & 11 pass from their own 19 with 2:27 left turned the ball over. AF not only got a FD but angered the BYU crowd when on 4th & goal at the 1 with :03 left after calling timeout QB Chance Harridge snuck in for an extra TD as time expired...

N Texas tied an NCAA record with 3 safeties vs Louisiana-Lft. One came on a snap over the P's head, another on intentional grounding and the third the normal way when DT Brandon Kennedy tackled RB Travis Smothers in the EZ. NT only led 30-23 in the 4Q but got two 4Q TD's to gain the frontdoor cover and finished with a 20-11 FD edge.

MISLEADING BOX SCORES - Nebraska dominated S Mississippi in their 38-14 win as the Thursday Night ESPN Play. The Huskers led 31-7 in the 4Q when SM brought in their true frosh QB Damion Carter. Carter, working against the NU backups, guided a 92 yd, 17 play drive in which they got 7 FD's and then on the final drive of the game, SM gained 56 yds and 3 FD's giving them 10 FD's on the final 2 drives and 156 of their 319 total yds. SM finished with 19-11 FD and 319-265 yd edges thanks to those late drives.

RECORD BREAKERS - Texas Tech?s BJ Symons threw for 661 yds breaking his own school record which he had set the previous week vs NCSt when he threw for 586 yds. He also set the Big 12 record and became just the 10th QB in NCAA history to top 600 yds passing in a game. He has the second most yds ever in two consecutive games at 1,247 trailing only David Klingler who set the record with Houston. Ole Miss actually led Tech 45-34 but Tech got 2 TD's in the final 5:00 and Eli Manning was int'd near the EZ on their last shot as Tech escaped with a 49-45 win...

New Mexico St/New Mexico drew 44,075, the largest crowd ever to watch a college football game in New Mexico. The Lobos were fortunate to get the win as they were outFD'd 19-13 and outgained 364-228. NMSt did get the cover with a 31 yd FG in the 4Q but the Lobos' TD's were set up due mostly to 5 Aggie turnovers.

BACKDOOR COVERS - While Miami (OH) had drives of 25, 38, 35 and 24 yds after turnovers, they had built a 41-17 lead when they punted with 10:44 left in the game. Cincy drove 98 yds for a TD. Miami appeared to put it away getting a FD at the UC 8 when they settled for a 23 yd FG. UC blk?d the FG and ret'd it 83 yds for a TD with 4:04 left. UC then rec'd the onside kick and got the backdoor cover on a 50 yd drive for a TD with 1:53 left. UC actually forced a punt and had a shot at the outright win but they fmbl?d the punt on their own 7 yd line with :40 left and UM took a knee...

N Carolina got their 2nd straight backdoor cover but it came in improbable fashion. NCSt seemed to score every time they had the ball and led 47-28. NC, a very live backdoor cover team, took over with 4:02 left and appeared poised for an early backdoor cover but NC HC Bunting brought in QB Matt Baker as well as the entire backup offense was brought in which was shocking with the team only 3 scores down. On 3rd & 14 Baker hit a 26 yd pass to Adarius Bowman who took it the remaining 50 yds for the TD with 2:30 left for the backdoor cover. NC rec'd the onside kick and was able to get 2 FD's to the NCSt 24. All of the starters and Durant returned for this one and NC ran out of time.

MISLEADING FINALS - Penn St deserved better vs Minnesota as they had a 419-321 yd edge. After trailing 14-0 they dominated the rest of the game. They were down 17-14 and had the ball at the UM 8 yd line but a 3rd & 11 pass fell incomplete. However, it was ruled an int although TV replays clearly showed it hit the ground. Paterno once again was robbed by Big 10 officials and PSU lost a chance at scoring. In the 2H PSU was SOD at the UM 33, missed a 45 yd FG, was int'd at the UM 36 and on their final drive got to the UM 13 yd line but their 4th & 8 pass fell incomplete in the EZ with :04 left and they lost by 6...

Duke played Florida St closer than the final would indicate as in the 1H they had a 43 yd FG blk?d and down 21-7 fmbl?d at the FSU 12 with 2:29 left in the half. FSU drove 88 yds for a TD and got a fmbl return for a TD to open the 3Q. Duke had a 42 yd FG blk?d and was SOD at the 16, 31 and 3 yd lines in the 4Q and also allowed a 71 yd fmbl return for a TD and was only outFD'd 24-17...

While Michigan did benefit from 69 yd PR and 60 yd int returns for TD's, they also lost 4 turnovers including TO?s at the IU 5, 29, 39. With 4:24 left in the game, UM led 31-3 but they had a punt blk'd and returned for a TD and after a UM punt, Indy drove 55 yds in 9 plays for a garbage TD with :20 left. That final drive gave Indy a 17-16 FD edge in a game that was not as close as the 31-17 score would indicate.

COACHING MISTAKE - Ron Zook was lucky that Florida had its biggest comeback in school history on the road overcoming an 18 point deficit vs Kentucky to win by 3. They won thanks in part to an int return to the UK 1 which set up the go-ahead TD with 3:15 left. The bonehead mistake by Zook was that with :59 left in the half he had punted and pinned UK at the 5. Having his full complement of timeouts and trailing 14-3, Zook could have easily have forced a punt from UK's own EZ and had a shot at either great field position, blocking a punt or some type of UK mistake which could giving his team momentum into the half. Instead, he simply opted to let UK run out the clock, going to a knee twice and not using his timeouts. It was 21-3 after 3Q's and once again he was fortunate to escape with the win.

ONE WEEK TOO LATE - Last week our Late Phone Selections went 4-3 but 2 losses saw Pittsburgh lose outright to Toledo and Iowa defeat Arizona St as we lost our 5H. We thought ASU could expose Iowa for the pretender they are this year, but unfortunately that happened a week too late. Michigan St jumped out to a 14-0 lead on Iowa scoring TD?s on their first two poss and their D dominated the game in an easy 20-10 home win knocking off the overrated #9 Iowa Hawkeyes...

Pitt simply went into Kyle Field one week after they blew a 10 point lead to Toledo by throwing int's on the 17 and 2 yd lines and then allowing 2 late TD's. A&M had a record of 29-1 SU vs non-conf teams their last 30 games. Pitt simply pounded the Aggies 37-20 with 7:13 left before allowing a garbage drive for a TD with 3:34 left and Larry Fitzgerald made his usual assortment of tremendous catches including 3 TD's...

Syracuse simply dominated Toledo one week after UT had upset #8 ranked Pittsburgh (Situational Handicapping). The Orangemen drove 67, 70 and 67 yds for TD's on their first three poss and added an 80 yd TD drive and led 24-0 at the half. UT's QB Bruce Gradkowski who hit 49 of 62 for 461 yds vs Pitt's tough D was held to 255 yds and most of that was late with the game out of reach. SU RB Walter Reyes, who leads the NCAA in rushing, had 162 yds on 17 carries and now has 681 yds on the season.

 

[Master Capper]

Joe,

Like all of your plays except Ball State, Nmex and Ark State, still looking at the games could end up on those sides too.


Wox,

UNC is due, seems like the offense is starting to play better might be worth a look.

Bama
Being a big Husker fan, I wonder if they will be able to cover that big of a nut, they should be able to run at will on Troy State but I can't see Lord having two nice passing games in a row. Since your from Alabama whats your take on the games this week involving teams from that state: UAB-MEM, Tenn-Aub and Bama-Geo?

 

[Master Capper]

Stat Sheet: based on 117 Div 1a Teams, (overall ranking)

Houston: Rushing O 180.5 (34th) vs ECU Run D 284.5 (117)
Passing O 197 (70) vs ECU Pass D 169.75 (24)

ECU: Rushing O 107.25 (95) vs Hous Run D 212.3 (105)
Passing O 180.5 (84) vs Hous Pass D 149.25 (12)


Turnover Margin: Houston 9 takes-9 turnovers (61)
ECU 5 takes-16 turnovers (115)

Punting: ECU average return 2.6 yards (116)
ECU opponets avg return 6.7 (7)

Hous average return 11.57 (28)
Hous Opponets avg return 11.45 (110)

Field Goals: Dead heat both teams 3 for 4

 

[bgold13]

great numbers you post all is appreciated.. thanks dude

 

[Master Capper]

a game that is really strange to me is the BYU and SD State game, I just dont see how the line could be where it is at. I have watched both teams play twice this year and while San Diego St's offense is average at best, I was quite impressed by their defense. BYU has completely lost it on offense, their running game is only averging 75 yards a game ranking them 115th out of 117 teams, why their passing game has improved over they year ranking 37th in the country they are going up against a top ten pass defense with SD ST. Anyone know of any reason not to back San Diego State in the clash?

 

[bgold13]

no im big on sdsu.. they seem to have been down after losing last week but they have a big conf game at home... should be sdsu by 5 i thought.... good solid aztec play here if you ask me.... he only thing is byu plays a very complex defense that may throw them a little bit

 

[Joe De]

Well MC the number held so now i can proceed..i was worried that houston was in trouble with that line dropping like a rock from 4 to 1...that was one of the best bets this week ;;;

i'm deleting the following for now ..i'll pick these up latter in the week ..but right now these are not in contention;

Vanderbilt...WHY? i watched the Miss st game last night against LSU..State has a defense...and the line dropped...my take is that Jakie Sherrill needs this game worse then Vandy and giving 4' now has some merit..I'm probably gone to play Miss state 1st thing A.m.

UTEP..getting 12 looks like a bargain on paper..i show dead even match..but i won't put any thing on this...they burn my ass last year big time from the numbers..and always lost by double digits..be careful

Air Force...don't like this big rivilry..i show they win by 7..not enough to suck me in to a play

i need your help on Ball State this comes up a 2nd best don't LAUGH PIK..i show s/u by 7 points..what your take? thx

 

[Joe De]

my take on you question above

I show
Tenn
memphis
Georgia may one of the best bets this week..wait n let everybody get on bama...bama has coaching problems and players discipline...Shula needs two years in college to be of any significance. the dumbass in overtime with 3 down and 6 yards on the 20 something yard line ...runs the damn ball instead of taking a poke in the enzone. now that's just stupid gone for 3 points in overtime.


Deleting the following again from contention:
Ark State...there 1-5 after playing memphis..came up big on stats..but way to risky ..

the intriguing play is Troy st.. they have won their last 3 ...and Nebraska has no throwing game what so ever..this could be a low scoring affair...Troy st. has a chance to win ...yeah i know i'm insane....but this team is damn tough..and can trow the ball..still pondering